Tuesday, May 26, 2015 11:53am
North Adams, MA now: 81 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
LOG IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
The Independent Investor: Japan — The Sun Is Beginning to Rise
By: Bill Schmick On: 03:11PM / Thursday June 02, 2011
Important
1
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
4

Readers should know by now that I'm a contrarian. The worse things seem to get, the more interested I become. Take Japan for example.

This island nation has suffered one economic bad spell after another for over 20 years. Japan is a depressing tale of economic and political mismanagement that has resulted in years of negative interest rates, a huge budget deficit, a stagnant economy, moribund stock market and a disillusioned and aging population. The massive earthquake and tsunami that triggered a nuclear disaster at a nuclear power plant in the eastern part of the country was seemingly the last straw that broke this country's back.

Japan is now officially in recession, which started in the last quarter of 2010, and has both widened and deepened thanks to these calamities of nature. Faced with enormous rebuilding costs, any effort to rein in the government's huge deficit looks hopeless. As a result, last week Moody's Investors Services placed Japan's government debt on review for a possible downgrade after changing its view in February from "stable" to "negative."

So why am I interested in investing in a country faced with this unending list of woes?

After two decades of lackluster efforts to revive the domestic economy, a new approach has been forced on the nation's leaders, thanks to the earthquake and tsunami. An enormous re-building of parts of the economy has to be undertaken, similar to the kind of reconstruction Japan undertook after World War II. Experts estimate it will cost $200 billion to $300 billion.

Japanese corporations need to increase their capital expenditures in order to regain lost capacity as well as to invest in improving their supply chain operations against a repeat of this kind of disaster. In addition, they will spend more money on earthquake proofing existing factories and office buildings and acquiring alternate power sources. This could add another $150 billion to $200 billion to national spending.

Aside from all the spending that is beginning in the near future, the government will maintain its extremely loose monetary policy. Interest rates will remain at 0 percent for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the yen is expected to decline as investors shy away from bonds that are rated "negative" by Moody's and an economy that is in recession.

To my way of thinking, here is an economy that is on the eve of a massive stimulus program, a declining currency (good for increasing exports), a corporate sector hell-bent on increasing capacity and re-gaining global market share (think autos) and a population that is willing to finance the effort regardless of Moody's outlook on their bonds. In the eastern region, new housing (unlike the U.S.) is in great demand. And unlike our own financial institutions that refuse to lend despite low interest rates, Japan's banks will lend and lend to corporations and individuals in order to help the recovery effort.

What this indicates to me is that a V-shaped economic recovery in Japan is a strong possibility. If I'm right, the stock market is a screaming buy.

Over the longer term this particular set of economic variables may actually pull the country out of its decadeslong deflationary quagmire. Japan as a nation needs to spend again, build again and buy again. Up until now, there hasn't been the will or a really compelling reason to do so. Now, whether you call it divine intervention or simply the flip side of a bad set of circumstances, Japan has its mojo back. It may take a few years before all of the above unfolds, but I think we are on the cusp of dramatic change within this country. Remember, you heard it here first, folks.

Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or e-mail him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.



Tags: Japan, tsunami, recession      
News Headlines
Cariddi Fields Questions About The State Budget
Mount Greylock District Whittling Down School Options
Berkshire County Remembers the Fallen on Memorial Day
Adams Free Library Rededicated
Lanesborough Marks Memorial Day, Honored for 250 Years
New Italian Restaurant Opens in North Adams
Cheshire & School District Agree to Better Communications
Williamstown Con Comm OKs Restoration Plan for Waubeeka
Doug Clark To Leave Director of Community Development Post
Williamstown Town Meeting OKs Parking, Signage

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (169)
Independent Investor (229)
Archives:
May 2015 (5)
May 2014 (1)
April 2015 (8)
March 2015 (6)
February 2015 (7)
January 2015 (9)
December 2014 (7)
November 2014 (4)
October 2014 (9)
September 2014 (5)
August 2014 (7)
July 2014 (2)
June 2014 (6)
Tags:
Pullback Currency Stocks Election Deficit Euro Housing Interest Rates Economy Retirement Stock Market Debt Debt Ceiling Federal Reserve Europe Banks Oil Metals Taxes Commodities Markets Greece Stimulus Jobs Fed Japan Fiscal Cliff Selloff Crisis Europe Bailout Congress Energy Recession Rally
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: June Is Off the Table
The Independent Investor: Will Memorial Day Kick Off a Strong Summer?
@theMarket: Another Record High
The Independent Investor: Millennials & Money
The Independent Investor: Avian Flu Scrambles the Egg Business
The Independent Investor: Does Another Trade Pact Make Sense?
@theMarket: Buy on the News
The Independent Investor: Should You Manage That 401(k)?
@theMarket: Right Back Into the Range
The Independent Investor: Brazil Not For the Faint of Heart


Williamstown Memorial Day...
Williamstown marked Memorial Day with a parade on Main...
Cheshire Memorial Day 2015
Cheshire residents, veterans, and special guests follow the...
Adams Memorial Day 2015
Adams observed Memorial Day with a parade and a ceremony at...
North Adams Memorial Day 2015
Residents, veterans, and guests met at the Veterans...
Clarksburg Memorial Day 2015
Clarksburg held Memorial Day observances at Town Hall with...
Pittsfield Memorial Day 2015
Pittsfield celebrated Memorial Day on Monday with a parade...
Wahconah High Prom 2015
Wahconah Regional High School held its 2015 Prom at the...
Lacrosse: Wahconah at Taconic
Wahconah won over Taconic 13-3 Friday afternoon.
Lanesborough Memorial Day...
Lanesborough celebrated Memorial Day Sunday with a parade...
Lee High Prom 2015
Lee High School held its senior prom at Cranwell Resort in...
Sullivan School Memorial Day...
Students, faculty, veterans, and distinguished guests...
Lacrosse: Pittsfield at...
Brendan Leary led the Pittsfield boys lacrosse team to a...
T&F: Quad Dual Meet
Mount Greylock's track and field team hosted three other...
Baseball: Wahconah at...
"It was really cold out today, and I had to heat up my...
Baseball: Hoosac Valley at...
Abel changed all that with one swing of the bat, drilling a...
Cooperstown NY Hall of Fame...
Wahconah; Pittsfield; Hoosac Valley; Taconic
Williamstown Memorial Day...
Williamstown marked Memorial Day with a parade on Main...
Cheshire Memorial Day 2015
Cheshire residents, veterans, and special guests follow the...
Adams Memorial Day 2015
Adams observed Memorial Day with a parade and a ceremony at...
North Adams Memorial Day 2015
Residents, veterans, and guests met at the Veterans...
Clarksburg Memorial Day 2015
Clarksburg held Memorial Day observances at Town Hall with...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings |
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2012 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved

Privacy Policy| User Agreement