Home About Archives RSS Feed

@theMarket: Spain Rains on U.S. Parade

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires Columnist
The release of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting notes on Tuesday was responsible for the initial sell-off in the markets this week. Then a Spanish bond auction on Wednesday was received poorly by bond investors. That spooked the U.S. stock market for a second day in a row. Things have snowballed from there.

I guess when it rains, it pours, at least when it comes to bad news in the stock markets. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi added to investor worries by expressing his concerns of future inflation and was therefore less than anxious to provide any more financial stimulus to the European crisis.

The justification for the recent European stock market rally has been investors' belief that central bankers stand ready to flood the markets with more and more money at the slightest whiff of additional problems. Draghi's remarks, coupled with the Spanish bond auction, did not play well among investors.

On this side of the pond, the Fed's meeting notes released on Tuesday afternoon indicated that unless unemployment and the economy take a sudden turn for the worse, investors should not count on further easing by our central bankers.

Oh me, oh my, lions and tigers and bears!

As I have reminded readers several times in the last month or two, this rally has been fueled by the conviction that the Fed will "soon" announce QE III. Tons of newsprint has been devoted to exactly when this will occur. The latest date pontificated by the most influential brokers is "no later than June." It is therefore mystifying that only two of the 12 FOMC board members support further easing at this time.

Those who have been following my advice have already raised cash, sold their most aggressive stock holdings and are therefore perfectly positioned to take advantage of this pull back.

"So how low can we go?"

It was the first question I received this week from readers.

The short answer is 5-8 percent. That would push the S&P 500 Index down to the 1,310-1,350 level. In the scheme of things that is not much of a drop given the 11 percent rise since the beginning of the year and 20 percent rise since October, although any loss is painful for investors. At that point, I think the market would more accurately reflect the present state of the economy and its prospects.

There is some discussion among economists, however, that the spate of good economic data we have been experiencing lately has been "front-end loaded." As a result of an abnormally warm winter and spring in two-thirds of the country, economic activity has been bunched into the early part of the year and we may see a slowdown as we enter the summer months.

I have maintained that the markets have been priced to perfection and that any bad news would have an inordinate impact. We will have to watch the economic data closely over the coming months for any clues to address those front end concerns. In the meantime, be prepared for some choppy action and potentially more downside this month in the markets.

Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or email him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.


0 Comments
     
News Headlines
Maple Grove Civic Club Hears From Adams Candidates
Pittsfield Council Asked To Push For State Education Funding Changes
North Adams City Council Refers Zoning Proposal, Adopts Resolution
Letter: Vote for Christine Hoyt on May 1
Non-Binding Question Asks Lanesborough to Hike Retiree Health-Care Premiums
Williamstown Planning Board Candidates Participate in Forum
Adams-Cheshire Weighs Emergency Amendment for Cheshire School
Mount Greylock School Looking For Regionalization Vote This Fall
North Adams Eyes Tax Title Sales For Tax Relief, Engineering
Compass Rose to Be Painted at North Adams Airport In May

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (227)
Independent Investor (309)
Archives:
April 2017 (5)
April 2016 (2)
March 2017 (8)
February 2017 (8)
January 2017 (6)
December 2016 (2)
October 2016 (1)
September 2016 (9)
August 2016 (5)
July 2016 (7)
June 2016 (7)
May 2016 (5)
Tags:
Currency Fiscal Cliff Oil Election Federal Reserve Crisis Greece Energy Wall Street Recession Deficit Markets Europe Debt Ceiling Bailout Euro Interest Rates Stock Market Commodities Debt Stocks Europe Stimulus Japan Rally Retirement Taxes Economy Jobs Banks Congress Pullback Selloff Housing Metals
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
Recent Entries:
The Independent Investor: Should College Be Free?
The Independent Investor: Tense Times in Trumpland
@theMarket: Uncertainty Descends Upon the Markets
The Independent Investor: Don't Let Romance Blind You to Finances
@theMarket: New Quarter, New Market
Living together is not what it used to be
Independent Investor: Don't Worry, Be Happy
@theMarket: Fed Rate Hike Sets Stage For More
The Independent Investor: Trump's Budget
@theMarket: Mushy Markets in March