Home About Archives RSS Feed

@theMarket: Spain Rains on U.S. Parade

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires Columnist
The release of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting notes on Tuesday was responsible for the initial sell-off in the markets this week. Then a Spanish bond auction on Wednesday was received poorly by bond investors. That spooked the U.S. stock market for a second day in a row. Things have snowballed from there.

I guess when it rains, it pours, at least when it comes to bad news in the stock markets. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi added to investor worries by expressing his concerns of future inflation and was therefore less than anxious to provide any more financial stimulus to the European crisis.

The justification for the recent European stock market rally has been investors' belief that central bankers stand ready to flood the markets with more and more money at the slightest whiff of additional problems. Draghi's remarks, coupled with the Spanish bond auction, did not play well among investors.

On this side of the pond, the Fed's meeting notes released on Tuesday afternoon indicated that unless unemployment and the economy take a sudden turn for the worse, investors should not count on further easing by our central bankers.

Oh me, oh my, lions and tigers and bears!

As I have reminded readers several times in the last month or two, this rally has been fueled by the conviction that the Fed will "soon" announce QE III. Tons of newsprint has been devoted to exactly when this will occur. The latest date pontificated by the most influential brokers is "no later than June." It is therefore mystifying that only two of the 12 FOMC board members support further easing at this time.

Those who have been following my advice have already raised cash, sold their most aggressive stock holdings and are therefore perfectly positioned to take advantage of this pull back.

"So how low can we go?"

It was the first question I received this week from readers.

The short answer is 5-8 percent. That would push the S&P 500 Index down to the 1,310-1,350 level. In the scheme of things that is not much of a drop given the 11 percent rise since the beginning of the year and 20 percent rise since October, although any loss is painful for investors. At that point, I think the market would more accurately reflect the present state of the economy and its prospects.

There is some discussion among economists, however, that the spate of good economic data we have been experiencing lately has been "front-end loaded." As a result of an abnormally warm winter and spring in two-thirds of the country, economic activity has been bunched into the early part of the year and we may see a slowdown as we enter the summer months.

I have maintained that the markets have been priced to perfection and that any bad news would have an inordinate impact. We will have to watch the economic data closely over the coming months for any clues to address those front end concerns. In the meantime, be prepared for some choppy action and potentially more downside this month in the markets.

Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or email him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.


0 Comments
     

Support Local News

We show up at hurricanes, budget meetings, high school games, accidents, fires and community events. We show up at celebrations and tragedies and everything in between. We show up so our readers can learn about pivotal events that affect their communities and their lives.

How important is local news to you? You can support independent, unbiased journalism and help iBerkshires grow for as a little as the cost of a cup of coffee a week.

News Headlines
ArtWeek to Launch Across Massachusetts
Berkshires Beat: Sen. Hinds Reads Aloud to Young Children in Pittsfield
Biz Briefs: Nonprofit Center Names Award Finalists
SVHC Auxiliary Hosts Exhibit of School Children’s Artwork in the Corridor Gallery
BHS Expands Endocrinology Care With Addition of New Doctor
Baseball in the Berkshires Celebrates Anniversary at Mall on Saturday
Hoosac Valley Grad Puppolo Tosses No-Hitter for College Team
Youth Development, Transportation, Tops Pignatelli's Budget Priorities
North Adams Fin Comm Reviews Public Services, Inspection Budgets
Williamstown ZBA Wants Expert Testimony in Person on Cell Tower Issue

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (255)
Independent Investor (348)
Archives:
April 2018 (5)
April 2017 (2)
March 2018 (6)
February 2018 (7)
January 2018 (7)
December 2017 (8)
November 2017 (5)
October 2017 (5)
September 2017 (5)
July 2017 (2)
June 2017 (8)
May 2017 (7)
Tags:
Metals Congress Wall Street Stock Market Energy Europe Debt Jobs Stocks Election Oil Crisis Banks Federal Reserve Economy Retirement Deficit Selloff Japan Commodities Fiscal Cliff Interest Rates Taxes Bailout Greece Euro Debt Ceiling Stimulus Pullback Rally Currency Markets Europe Recession Housing
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: Earnings Up; Stocks, Not So Much
The Independent Investor: Why the Tax Cuts Are Unpopular Among Americans
The Independent Investor: The Facebook Fallacy
@theMarket: The Trump Trade Bluff
The Independent Investor: Free Trade Vs. Fair Trade
@theMarket: Will April Be Better for the Markets?
The Independent Investor: Financial Planners Held to Higher Standard
@theMarket: Trump's Trade Wars Sink Markets
The Independent Investor: Medicare Premiums and Your Income
@themarket: Trump's Tariff Talk Trashes Global Markets