Tuesday, July 28, 2015 03:47pm
North Adams, MA now: 84 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
LOG IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
The Independent Investor: How Much Is Too Much to Spend in Retirement?
By Bill Schmick On: 02:53PM / Thursday July 17, 2014

More and more baby boomers retire each year. One of the questions that trouble them the most is whether they have enough savings to last their lifetime. The answer largely depends on how much they plan to spend each year.

The historical guideline that most financial planners use is a 4 percent drawdown of your retirement savings after taking account of social security and other non-portfolio sources of income, such as rentals or part-time work. That number has been shown to provide most retirees with a comfortable living over the course of a 30-year retirement.

However, I advise my clients to use the 4 percent rule of thumb as a starting place and adjust along the way. Times change and so do markets, so no single number will be appropriate for every situation. Take inflation, for example. Every year inflation climbs higher. Over the last five years, inflation has been fairly well contained but that doesn't mean it will always be so.

I suggest that above and beyond the yearly 4 percent savings drawdown, enough money should be withdrawn to account for the inflation rate. This year, for example, inflation should come in slightly above 2 percent. In which case, a retiree should plan on withdrawing 6 percent of his funds next year to accommodate for these higher costs.

For the last 30 years or so, conventional financial wisdom has dictated that retirement portfolios should be predominantly invested in bonds. Advisers argued that this was the safe, conservative approach for those who can no longer afford to play the volatility of the stock market. As a result, some planners are now arguing that the 4 percent guideline should be lowered given the historical low rates of returns in the fixed income markets. They are extrapolating that since rates are low now they will therefore continue to be low in the years ahead. I think that is nonsense.

First off, as I have written before, bonds are no longer a "safe and conservative" investment. I believe that bond prices in the future will fall considerably as interest rates rise. Why keep the lion's share of your retirement savings in a losing investment that will continue to decline over the next several years?

The state of the bond and stock markets will also impact that 4 percent rule. I suggest that you adjust your spending based on how the markets perform. If the stock market is declining, the economy stalling and/or interest rates are rising; you might want to pare back your spending and your withdrawals. If the opposite occurs, you may consider withdrawing more money, but within reason.

I have one client, a single woman age 82, with health issues, who has about $1.5 million invested fairly conservatively with us. Each year we have managed to generate enough returns to satisfy her 6percent withdrawal rate and make substantially more above that for her. The problem is that every year we do, she immediately withdraws those additional profits, leaving nothing for those "rainy day" years when the markets are down. I have my hands full convincing her to leave some of those profits alone. The point is that you must remain flexible while still planning for the future.

But not everyone need abide by the 4 percent rule. Actuaries will tell you that if you follow the 4 percent rule you have a 90 percent confidence level that your retirement savings should last your lifetime. But 90 percent is a high rate of probability, maybe too high for your liking. You may opt to spend more and reduce your probabilities to a more reasonable 75 percent that your money outlives you.

That lower confidence level might actually be more appropriate for your planning purposes. By now, you may realize that if you have not discussed this with an investor adviser it is never too late to start.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.


0 Comments
     
News Headlines
White Label Agency Hires Several New Staff Members
North Adams Happenings: July 30
Village Ambulance to Host Free CPR Workshops
Dr. Veeranna Joins Cardiology Services at BMC
Mayoral Candidate Tyer Targets Anti-blight Ordinances
Wellington, Roberson Lead Teams to Giorgi League Wins
Pittsfield to Hold Babe Ruth, Little League Fall Ball Signups
Ciccolo Arraignment Wednesday
North Adams Considering 'Adopt an Island' Beautification Plan
Williamstown Board Asked to Restrict Parking on Lee Terrace

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (175)
Independent Investor (237)
Archives:
July 2015 (5)
June 2015 (8)
May 2015 (6)
April 2015 (8)
March 2015 (6)
February 2015 (7)
January 2015 (9)
December 2014 (7)
November 2014 (4)
October 2014 (9)
September 2014 (5)
August 2014 (7)
Tags:
Oil Bailout Recession Stimulus Taxes Jobs Stock Market Energy Currency Europe Election Economy Congress Metals Europe Interest Rates Fiscal Cliff Deficit Rally Japan Federal Reserve Pullback Fed Housing Euro Debt Ceiling Crisis Stocks Greece Retirement Banks Markets Debt Commodities Selloff
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
Recent Entries:
The Independent Investor: Are You Ready for El Niņo
@theMarket: O Ye of Little Faith
The Independent Investor: When 'No' Means 'Yes'
@theMarket: Global Markets Weather a Wild Week
The Independent Investor: Same-Sex Marriage Good for Business
@the Market: Second Quarter Earnings on Deck
The Independent Investor: Tiny Houses Gain Appeal
@theMarket: From Russia With love
The Independent Investor: Robo-Advisers Have Landed
@theMarket: Don't Try to Trade This Market


Park Street Fair (Hi-Jinks...
Park St. was closed off to traffic Monday night for the...
Gather-In Festival 2015
The annual Gather-In, a celebration of Pittsfield's...
'Romeo & Juliet' @ Pittsfield...
Free performances of 'Romeo & Juliet' run through Aug. 2 at...
LaFesta Baseball 2015
The LaFesta Baseball Exchange marked its 25th anniversary...
Bulldogs Win Cal Ripken State...
The Lanesborough Bulldogs used a big base-running play to...
Spark @ Naumkeag
Berkshire Creative held its July Spark mixer at the...
LL: Pittsfield vs Longmeadow
The 10- and 11-year-old Pittsfield National Little League...
Pittsfield Polish Picnic
St. Joseph's Church in Pittsfield hosted the annual Polish...
Pittsfield Babe Ruth WMass...
The Pittsfield Babe Ruth 15-year-old All-Stars beat Holden...
Shire City Sessions July 2015
The inaugural Shire City Sessions drew a crowd to hear US...
3rd Thursday June 2015
Pittsfield's 3rd Thursday monthly street fair featured...
Cheshire Block Party
Cheshire's first Block Party featured live music, food,...
Berkshire Museum Science...
The Berkshire Museum in Pittsfield hosted a free evening of...
Pittsfield Rally Against...
Residents gathered at Linden Street to call for community...
Eagle Street Beach Party 2015
A few shots from the annual beach party Friday night in...
Live On The Lake Concert
Burbank Park on Onota Lake in Pittsfield. The band Who Are...
Park Street Fair (Hi-Jinks...
Park St. was closed off to traffic Monday night for the...
Gather-In Festival 2015
The annual Gather-In, a celebration of Pittsfield's...
'Romeo & Juliet' @ Pittsfield...
Free performances of 'Romeo & Juliet' run through Aug. 2 at...
LaFesta Baseball 2015
The LaFesta Baseball Exchange marked its 25th anniversary...
Bulldogs Win Cal Ripken State...
The Lanesborough Bulldogs used a big base-running play to...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings |
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2012 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved

Privacy Policy| User Agreement