Home About Archives RSS Feed

@theMarket: Will April Be Better for the Markets?

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires columnist
It has been a tough month for stocks and February wasn't much better. Granted, it was a small price to pay for last year's great gains, but, as in life, all good things must come to an end. Will April bring more of the same for us or can we hope for something better?
 
Much depends on White House initiatives, "Spanky's" (the President's new nickname) tweets, and the world's response to the administration's trade war initiatives. None of the above is certain, and, as readers know by now, the markets hate uncertainty. 
 
This quarter, both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Indexes have seen a nine-quarter win streak come to an end. As of this week, the stock market has lost 40 percent of the gains it has enjoyed since Donald Trump's election victory. You could say "easy come, easy go," or you could be concerned that the other 40 percent could disappear just as fast. I am of the camp that those gains will stick around, largely because of the economy's underlying strength.
 
Could we see further downside? Technically, a case can be made for another 200-point decline in the S&P 500 Index to 2,462. It would first need to slice through support at 2,532. The evidence for that bear case is no stronger than that of the bull case. This week, we brushed, but didn't touch, the 200-day moving average, which is always a line in the sand for bulls and bears. Below it, we're in trouble, above it, green lights ahead. We have tested this level two times so far this year. Will a third time be the charm, and if so, for whom, the bulls or the bears?
 
Clearly, this year's winner thus far has been volatility. After months and months of declines, the VIX has risen and it has done so with a vengeance. Anyone (other than the professionals) attempting to trade the daily moves of the markets has ended up in a padded cell somewhere. The out-sized moves both up and down have been led by the technology sector. That's a bit of a problem for the market.
 
The technology sector, which has led the market's advance for the last five years, appears to have rolled over. The FANG stocks (everyone's go-to group of gainers) have run into regulatory trouble. Facebook's involvement with the surfacing Trump campaign scandal, involving Cambridge Analytica, has caused the whole group of social media stocks to fall under a cloud of suspicion.
 
Investors and traders alike, are concerned that world governments are on the verge of adopting new and more restrictive rules and regulations on these companies with far-reaching results. None of which will be positive for their stock prices. As a result, the NASDAQ, the tech-heavy index, has had its worst month since January 2016.
 
Certainly, there are good things that may be lurking just over the horizon. The North Korean situation is turning promising. Meetings between "Fatty the Third," (the popular name for Kim Jong Un among the Chinese citizenry) and our own "Spanky" Trump, as well as Prime Minster Abe of Japan and South Korea's President, Moon Jae-In, are encouraging. All these meetings are happening in April.
 
So far, the tariff talk from our trading partners has been conciliatory and their language deliberately low-key so as not to set off another tirade of tweets from our Tweeter-in-Chief. As I have written before, I do not believe that Trump will go over the deep end on a serious trade war unless provoked. The problem is that no one knows when and what will provoke him.  
 
Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $400 million for investors in the Berkshires.  Bill's forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.
0 Comments
     

Support Local News

We show up at hurricanes, budget meetings, high school games, accidents, fires and community events. We show up at celebrations and tragedies and everything in between. We show up so our readers can learn about pivotal events that affect their communities and their lives.

How important is local news to you? You can support independent, unbiased journalism and help iBerkshires grow for as a little as the cost of a cup of coffee a week.

News Headlines
Four Freedoms Presents Day of Civic Empowerment
ArtWeek to Launch Across Massachusetts
Berkshires Beat: Sen. Hinds Reads Aloud to Young Children in Pittsfield
Biz Briefs: Nonprofit Center Names Award Finalists
SVHC Auxiliary Hosts Exhibit of School Children’s Artwork in the Corridor Gallery
BHS Expands Endocrinology Care With Addition of New Doctor
Baseball in the Berkshires Celebrates Anniversary at Mall on Saturday
Hoosac Valley Grad Puppolo Tosses No-Hitter for College Team
Youth Development, Transportation, Tops Pignatelli's Budget Priorities
North Adams Fin Comm Reviews Public Services, Inspection Budgets

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (255)
Independent Investor (348)
Archives:
April 2018 (5)
April 2017 (2)
March 2018 (6)
February 2018 (7)
January 2018 (7)
December 2017 (8)
November 2017 (5)
October 2017 (5)
September 2017 (5)
July 2017 (2)
June 2017 (8)
May 2017 (7)
Tags:
Deficit Europe Debt Ceiling Oil Pullback Fiscal Cliff Stocks Metals Economy Currency Europe Markets Retirement Greece Housing Crisis Election Stimulus Rally Energy Debt Recession Jobs Federal Reserve Bailout Japan Taxes Selloff Commodities Euro Congress Banks Stock Market Wall Street Interest Rates
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: Earnings Up; Stocks, Not So Much
The Independent Investor: Why the Tax Cuts Are Unpopular Among Americans
The Independent Investor: The Facebook Fallacy
@theMarket: The Trump Trade Bluff
The Independent Investor: Free Trade Vs. Fair Trade
@theMarket: Will April Be Better for the Markets?
The Independent Investor: Financial Planners Held to Higher Standard
@theMarket: Trump's Trade Wars Sink Markets
The Independent Investor: Medicare Premiums and Your Income
@themarket: Trump's Tariff Talk Trashes Global Markets