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@theMarket: No Gain, No Pain

Bill Schmick

Markets did little in the first week of the 2011. All three averages barely budged as investors waited for some new catalyst that might hint at the near-term direction of the market. Friday's disappointing unemployment data gave them that excuse.

Only 103,000 jobs were created in December while some economists were forecasting as many as 400,000 jobs for the month. I'm not concerned about the monthly unemployment data or about a possible pullback in the next few days or weeks. While the overall market has vacillated lately, the commodity sector has been undergoing a good old-fashioned correction. Given that commodity stocks have largely led the market higher for the last year, in my opinion, declines in that area are telegraphing a coming slide in the overall stock market.

A pullback, when stocks are overextended like they are at the moment, simply allows the overall market to prepare for further gains in the future. A 2 to 4 percent dip therefore, while painful in the short term, would be barely be a blip in the coming move higher.

For those who missed last week's column, my prediction for the S&P 500 Index for 2011 is north of 1,450-1,500. We could see gains of between 15 to 20 percent before we hit another roadblock. As a result, I would advise even the most conservative investor to take advantage of any dip to re-orient their portfolio toward equities in 2011.

Remember, however, that we are still in a secular bear market and will be for the foreseeable future. What we are experiencing (and have been since March 2009) is a rally (called a secular bull market) within this long-term downtrend. It is a period where a buy and hold strategy will only result in losses to your portfolio. We have had similar periods in stock market history, with the most recent occurring between the years of 1966 and 1982.

During that period there were several opportunities, lasting from several months to a few years, where great gains were made, with similar opportunities to lose a great deal of money.

Consider this a market of seasons where at times you plant seeds, watch your crops grow, and then harvest them before the winter arrives. Right now we're in planting season (buying stocks) because the climate (economic environment) is conducive to growth. The economy will surprise investors this year by growing a little more than we expect (possibly 3.5 percent). The Fed will continue to keep short-term rates low while supporting the stock market using this "easy money" strategy. At the same time, the Obama administration's wide range of tax cuts and benefit extensions as well as investment tax breaks for our corporations will further boost spending.

Down the road, there still are several clouds looming on the horizon that may at some point de-rail this happy scenario. Although the much-feared specter of hyperinflation is overblown, in my opinion, we could see a sharp spike in long-term interest rates later in the year. The financial problems of European banks also worry me, and their problems have not gone away.

"But everyone I talk to is bullish," protests one investor from Pittsfield, who worries that the consensus is usually wrong.

He is right that my forecasts are very much in line with The Street. Friday, for example, Goldman Sachs upgraded their S&P 500 forecast to 1,500. Sometimes, the consensus and the markets can be in sync. I believe that the economic evidence is so overwhelmingly positive that, barring a new major negative, the near-term future of the markets is fairly certain.

Even Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in his discussion Friday with Senate Budget Committee commented that he sees "increased evidence that a self-sustaining recovery" is unfolding as well as a "moderately stronger" economy this year. I'll stick with the Fed and bet on the market.

Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or e-mail him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.

Tags: bulls, recovery, interest rates      

@theMarket: Overhead Resistance Keeps Markets in Check

Bill Schmick

"I don't get it," gripes an investor who called from Chicopee, "Congress goes and passes the tax-cut extensions, which is good news, right, and still the market does nothing. What gives?"

By way of explanation, pundits argue that the passage of this event was already "baked in" to the averages, which is why the markets are trading close to the year's high. OK, I'll take that on board but there has been a lot of good news lately that should not have been discounted — higher consumer confidence, less unemployment, greater factory output — but the market appears uninterested. The much-heralded Christmas rally has stalled just below a key resistance area at 1,250 on the S&P 500 Index. So maybe we have hit the highs for this year already.

Last week, I wrote that it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a 50-75 point pullback in the S&P Index. I opinioned that the catalyst might be a congressional failure to pass the tax cut extensions. Although the extensions were passed, the markets still look like they would rather go down than up in the short term.

That is surprising since my friend in Chicopee is right. The latest government initiative could add somewhere between 0.50 percent to 1 percent to 2011 GDP. That is nothing to sneeze at so maybe fundamental analysis is not the place to look for an answer.

Technically most stocks, sectors and commodities are overextended. In order to correct that condition, the averages need to back and fill for a period of time or a market pullback is in order.

In addition, whenever markets approach a big technical area of resistance like 1,250, there is usually a battle of wills between the bulls and the bears. So why is 1,250 such an important number?

Readers may recall that by September 2008, Bear Sterns had already collapsed as had Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, our two quasi-governmental mortgage giants. The House of Lehman Brothers was about to fall and that's when the S&P first broke 1,250 (on Sept. 3). It traded back and forth with a great deal of volatility around that level until Sept. 23 when it finally gave up the ghost and plummeted 48 points. Suffice it to say that the 1,250 level was not easily conceded by the bulls and what had once served as strong support for the markets, once broken, now also serves as an important resistance point in the index's attempt to move higher.

The process of testing that resistance level is what is occurring right now. My guess is that the bulls will ultimately win that struggle but not without a fight. I do not believe we will see the massive percentage point swings that we suffered through in 2008 but a milder, less dramatic give and take that could last for another week or so.

Whether the ongoing problems within the European financial sector will furnish the excuse the bears will need for a pullback remains to be seen. Higher interest rates over in the government bond market or a big move in the dollar could also spook investors. Regardless of the reason, I would be adding equity to my portfolio on any dip.

Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or e-mail him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.

Tags: market, swings, bulls      
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Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



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