Thursday night 12/2 HOUSTON AT PHILADELPHIA: Pick: Eagles

Before I get to the rest of my Week 12 picks, a few thoughts about the Thanksgiving games. The Patriots and Jets had similar holiday outings: Both teams fell behind in the first half, rebounded in the second and notched their ninth wins of the season. But there’s one major difference I saw between these two AFC contenders, and it’s the reason why I think the Pats will prevail easily in the big Monday night game on December 6.

Discipline.

Against Detroit, the Pats committed five penalties worth 50 yards, but none of those flags came at crucial stages of the game. The Jets, on the other hand, accrued eight penalties worth 68 yards. On paper, it’s not a monumental difference. But New York was flagged for THREE illegal blocks (shouldn’t happen on a “well-coached team”) and a roughing-the-passer penalty that kept a Bengals’ drive alive at a key point in the game. Against a good team, the Jets would’ve paid dearly for their mistakes.

That’s been the theme for the Jets during the last month. They consistently shot themselves in the foot, but got away with it because they faced the Lions, Browns, Texans and Bengals. It will be an entirely different scenario for Rex Ryan’s band of misfits when they enter Foxborough in 10 days.

As confident as I am about the Pats’ chances against the Jets, their defense still frustrates me to no end. Their third-down efforts are horrendous, and their tackling, at times, looks extremely sloppy. But the NFL is all about offense. A bend-but-don’t break defense that forces turnovers in clutch spots can do the trick…if the offense can carry the load. And right now, there’s no offense with more weapons right now than the New England Patriots.

And it always helps to have some discipline. As much as I can’t stand Rex Ryan, I have to credit him for his honesty. During his post-game press conference on Thursday night, he was asked about his team’s upcoming date with the Patriots: “We know they'll outcoach us, but we have to overcome that.” He may be insufferable, but at least he’s not delusional.  

MINNESOTA AT WASHINGTON: Pick – Redskins

TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON: Pick – Texans

JACKSONVILLE AT N.Y. GIANTS: Pick – Giants

PITTSBURGH AT BUFFALO: Pick – Steelers

CAROLINA AT CLEVELAND: Pick – Browns

GREEN BAY AT ATLANTA: Pick – Packers

KANSAS CITY AT SEATTLE: Pick – Seahawks

MIAMI AT OAKLAND: Pick – Dolphins

ST. LOUIS AT DENVER: Pick – Broncos

PHILADELPHIA AT CHICAGO: Pick – Eagles

TAMPA BAY AT BALTIMORE: Pick – Ravens

SAN DIEGO AT INDIANAPOLIS: Pick – Colts

SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA: Pick - Cardinals