Here we are, the last week of the regular season (And on the verge of a new year). It seems like just yesterday that the summer sun was blazing, Randy Moss was bitching about his contract, the Cowboys were Super Bowl favorites and the Patriots were embarking on a “bridge season.”

Oh, so much can change in just a few months. It’s been an exciting NFL season, and it should be a thrilling postseason. Let’s take a glance at the last 16 weeks, shall we?

Top 5 Surprises

1. Kansas City – If you had asked me before the season which division champion was a virtual lock, I wouldn’t have hesitated. San Diego in the West, without a doubt.  Matt Cassel and the upstart Chiefs made a statement in Week 1, shocking the Chargers on a rainy Monday night in Missouri. Most fans – including myself – called it a fluke. San Diego got off to a horrid 2-5 start, but everyone and their dog knew that the Bolts would turn it around and sneak into the postseason. But the Chiefs – chock full of former Pats - had other plans.

2. Chicago – Green Bay and Minnesota were the clear-cut frontrunners for the NFC North title. Yet here are the Bears, with a chance for the top seed in the NFC.

3. New England – Most people expected the Pats to contend for a playoff spot, but I clearly remember some so-called “experts” predicting an 8-8 or 9-7 “rebuilding” campaign for Belichick’s bunch. But unlike last year, the Pats won the games against the good teams: Colts, Steelers, Ravens, etc. And, they’ve won on the road, which they weren’t able to do last year. The big turning point (in my opinion) was the road blowout over the Dolphins in Week 4 on Monday Night Football. The Pats proved they could rely on their defense and special teams to win a game, plus it also happened to be Randy Moss’ last as a Patriot. I believe I predicted them to be 11-5 before the season (and even that was blind optimism from a homer’s perspective), but I would have never expected 13-2 and the best record in football.

4. St. Louis – Coming off a 1-15 season, the Rams are one win from a division championship. Granted, the NFC West is a joke, and an argument could be made that there are three or four other teams in the conference who deserve a playoff spot over the Rams. We all knew the West was going to be weak, but the Rams are the last of the four teams I expected to be leading the pack.

5. Tampa Bay – Playing for a playoff spot in the final week of the season. Didn’t see that one coming. Many people may have the Bucs higher up on the list, but look at the teams they beat: Not one had a winning record. But it is the NFL, and all but two or three teams are capable of winning on any given Sunday. So the fact that Tampa could finish 10-6 makes them deserving of the top 5.

Honorable mentions: Atlanta, Philadelphia and Oakland.

Top 5 Disappointments

1. Dallas – They lost their starting QB in Week 7, but things weren’t looking good even with Romo. The team had one win when the Giants ended Romo’s season. With Dallas hosting Super Bowl XLV, a lot of people picked the Cowboys to be the first team to play on its home turf while vying for the Lombardi Trophy. After a 1-7 start, Wade Phillips was canned and the Cowboys were the laughing stock of the league. The Boys have been MUCH better since Jason Garrett took the reins, but they are still going to finish (at best) with a share of last place in the NFC East.

2. San Diego – Three out of the five teams on this list fired their coach during the season. I’m not sure if Norv Turner will lose his job, but he should. San Diego was plagued with injuries, but that is not an acceptable excuse for an 8-7 record. If you saw how the Bolts manhandled the Colts at Indy, you saw this team’s potential. When a team doesn’t live up to its potential, you’ve got to look at the coaching staff.

3. Minnesota – What a mess. Coach fired, the Favre saga (on and off the field), the Moss debacle and the stadium caved in (literally). Vikings fans have reason to be optimistic following their win over Philly on Tuesday, but 2010 has been a huge bust overall.

4. Cincinnati – From division champions in 2009 to one of the worst teams in the league in 2010. Marvin Lewis’ job is in jeopardy, which seems a little unfair. When you pair up two of the biggest egomaniacs in the league, how do you expect this team to stay focused and compete in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. I certainly wasn’t expecting the Bengals to make the playoffs, but I expected better than 4-11.

5. San Francisco – I thought this was going to be a breakout year for the 49ers, and I wasn’t alone. They had a tough schedule (Saints, Chiefs, Falcons and Eagles in Weeks 2 through 5), so I think Mike Singletary is sort of the scapegoat in a year with unrealistic expectations. But in the NFC West, the Niners should have done better. They need a quarterback.

Honorable Mentions: Miami, Tennessee and N.Y. Jets.

Week 17 Picks

MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND: Pick – Patriots

BUFFALO AT N.Y. JETS: Pick – Bills

CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE: Pick – Ravens

PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND: Pick – Browns

TAMPA BAY AT NEW ORLEANS: Pick – Saints

CAROLINA AT ATLANTA: Pick – Falcons

MINNESOTA AT DETROIT: Pick – Lions

OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY: Pick – Raiders

JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON: Pick – Texans

ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO: Pick – Cardinals

SAN DIEGO AT DENVER: Pick – Broncos

CHICAGO AT GREEN BAY: Pick – Packers

N.Y. GIANTS AT WASHINGTON: Pick – Giants

DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA: Pick – Cowboys

TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: Pick – Colts

ST. LOUIS AT SEATTLE: Pick - Rams

Last week: 9-7

Season record: 145-94

With each week that passes, Rex Ryan creeps closer to Derek Jeter status. He’s the guy I want to hate – because of his affiliation with a New York team – but he makes it very difficult not to like him.

As a Patriots fan, Ryan is a cocky, loud-mouth loser. As an objective football fan, Ryan is entertaining as hell. He’s honest, confident and a great motivator. And, as we are learning with the recent foot fetish videos, he’s just another guy with a few quirks.

Bill Belichick is the best coach in football, without a doubt.  As a Patriots fan, he’s brilliant, cerebral and he handles his media obligations better than anyone in sports. But as an objective football fan, he’s booooooooorring. He’s the anti-Rex Ryan. In sports, we want to see the human side to these coaches and players. We want to see their personalities – their weaknesses, their superstitions, the type of stuff that can help us relate to them (even though they are millionaires and most of us are not).

It’s similar to how people obsess over movie stars. They live a glamorous life, but how are they like us? Who’s in rehab, who’s getting divorced, etc.? It’s a sick way of living – vicariously through other people we don’t know – but it’s the way of the world. Belichick will never let us relate to him because he’s a smart football coach. ALL of his comments and actions – at least in the public eye - relate to his football team. Ryan, on the other hand, is a guy who isn’t afraid to let his guard down and wear his emotions on his sleeve.

Foot fetish? I don’t get it. Some people can relate to it, I’m sure. I don’t. But we all have some quirks, especially when it comes to relationships. It’s what makes us human.

So, I will continue to root for Belichik and his Patriots, and I’ll continue to despise Rex Ryan’s Jets. But if I had to choose the coach I would rather hang out with, or who I could most identify with, it would be the guy leading the New York team.

Before I get to the picks, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone!

DALLAS AT ARIZONA: Pick – Cowboys

NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO: Pick – Patriots

N.Y. JETS AT CHICAGO: Pick – Bears

BALTIMORE AT CLEVELAND: Pick – Browns

TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY: Pick – Chiefs

SAN FRANCISCO AT ST. LOUIS: Pick – 49ers

DETROIT AT MIAMI: Pick – Dolphins

WASHINGTON AT JACKSONVILLE: Pick – Redskins

INDIANAPOLIS AT OAKLAND: Pick - Colts

HOUSTON AT DENVER: Pick – Texans

SAN DIEGO AT CINCINNATI: Pick – Chargers

N.Y. GIANTS AT GREEN BAY: Pick – Packers

SEATTLE AT TAMPA BAY: Pick – Buccaneers

MINNESOTA AT PHILADELPHIA: Pick – Eagles

NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA: Pick - Saints

Last week: 8-7

Thursday night: 1-0

Season Record: 137-87

THURSDAY GAME: I almost forgot about the Thursday night game again this week. Oh, the holidays. I'm picking the Steelers over the Panthers. Daring, I know.

So, I forgot to make my prediction for Thursday night’s game. Oops. Not a big deal, but it could hurt me in a very important bet I have going with my brother. Let me explain. A few weeks into the season, he told me he was in a “Pick Em” league. Considering that I have been making picks here on iBerkshires.com, I thought it would be fun to make a friendly wager. No money. No steak dinner. No crazy haircut for the loser.

Instead, we agreed that whoever has the least amount of wins at the end of the regular season must have their face painted on Super Bowl Sunday, and socialize the ENTIRE day under that particular guise.  The winner - who picks the most games correctly – gets to select what will be painted on the loser’s mug. We have a buddy who is a phenomenal artist, so he can pretty much paint whatever we ask. For most of the season, I’ve held a four or five game edge over my brother, but he has slowly but surely crept back into the race during the last couple weeks.

So, by missing Thursday night’s game, I let him pull one game closer (because he picked the Chargers). Could hurt me in the end, but we shall see. By the way… if I do hold on and win the bet, my brother is getting the entire cast of Full House painted on his face. And I’m going to make sure we’re watching the big game at a venue with LOTS of people, so he has to explain to people why Bob Saget and John Stamos are on his face.

BUFFALO AT MIAMI: The Dolphins are still in the playoff picture, but they’ll have to win their final three and hope the Jets lose out. It’s unlikely, but certainly conceivable. Jets have Pittsburgh and Chicago on the road, then home against Buffalo. Miami has Bills, Lions then the Patriots, who may be resting their starters in Week 17 if they already have the top seed wrapped up. PICK: DOLPHINS

ARIZONA AT CAROLINA: May be the most uninteresting game of the 2010 football season. PICK: CARDINALS

NEW ORLEANS AT BALTIMORE: This game is a biggie. Although both clubs are in pretty good shape to make the postseason, a win will keep one team in the race for a division title, which would result in an all-important home game. Although it’s unlikely the Falcons or Steelers cough up their leads, the winners from the AFC North and NFC South are likely to have a first-round bye. So, while this game won’t likely ruin either team’s playoff hopes, it could prove pivotal for seeding. Pick: SAINTS

DETROIT AT TAMPA BAY: A Tampa Bay victory and a Giants win over Philly gives Tampa Bay the sixth seed. Of course, the Bucs still have to face the Saints in Week 17. But a win over the three-win Lions at least keeps Tampa Bay in the picture. PICK: BUCS

PHILADELPHIA AT N.Y. GIANTS: This one will likely decide the NFC East. Philly is fun to watch. They’ve got some playmakers. The Giants are sort of a forgotten team in the NFC, which means nothing in that conference. It’s the team that flies under the radar that has made it to the Super Bowl the last few years, with last year’s Saints an exception. Before that, it was Cards, Giants, Bears, Seahawks. The Giants may not win the NFC East, but don’t be surprised if they make some noise in the playoffs….if they get in. PICK: EAGLES

JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS:  The Jaguars are gaining steam as the sleeper pick in the AFC. I still don’t think they’ll win the division. PICK: Colts

KANSAS CITY AT ST. LOUIS: As much as I would love to see KC win the AFC West over the Jekyll and Hyde Chargers, I won’t believe it until I see it. Hard to believe that Rams-Chiefs in Week 15 is a battle of two teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today. PICK: RAMS

WASHINGTON AT DALLAS: The Donovan McNabb situation is really strange. I understand what Coach Shanahan is doing. If the quarterback isn’t getting it done, then go with a player that gives you a better chance – in most cases. But Grossman doesn’t give you a better chance than McNabb. My guess is that Donovan is banged up and there’s no sense in risking future injury when the Skins are out of the postseason race. PICK: COWBOYS

 CLEVELAND AT CINCINNATI: Who, out of the state of Ohio, gives a crap? PICK: BENGALS

 HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE: I caught the last quarter of Monday night’s Baltimore-Houston game, and I was thoroughly entertained. The Texans’ offense was fun to watch. Just a really exciting finish and a glimpse of what the Texans can be. But, again, Houston  looked like a team that doesn’t know how to close out games. Winning just isn’t part of the Texans’ culture yet. PICK: TEXANS

ATLANTA AT SEATTLE: Falcons vs. Saints next week on MNF will become a whole lot bigger if the Seahawks can pull off the upset this Sunday. Doubtful. PICK: FALCONS

N.Y. JETS AT PITTSBURGH: Love it. Jets have imploded the last two weeks. Not surprising, though. They barely squeaked by teams with losing records, so why would they beat teams with winning records? PICK: STEELERS

DENVER AT OAKLAND: Raiders will pick up the season sweep over their rivals. That’s going to sting in Denver. PICK: RAIDERS

GREEN BAY AT NEW ENGLAND: I really liked the Pats’ chances even if Aaron Rodgers did start for Green Bay. Could snow, too. Perfect. PICK: PATRIOTS

CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA: The University of Minnesota will host a nationally televised game featuring third-string quarterback Joe Webb starting for the hosts. ESPN must be thrilled (SARCASM). The broadcasting team will still find a way to talk about Favre for most of the game. So, I just won’t watch. PICK: BEARS

Last week: 9-7

Season Record: 128-80

Thursday night 12/2 HOUSTON AT PHILADELPHIA: Pick: Eagles

Before I get to the rest of my Week 12 picks, a few thoughts about the Thanksgiving games. The Patriots and Jets had similar holiday outings: Both teams fell behind in the first half, rebounded in the second and notched their ninth wins of the season. But there’s one major difference I saw between these two AFC contenders, and it’s the reason why I think the Pats will prevail easily in the big Monday night game on December 6.

Discipline.

Against Detroit, the Pats committed five penalties worth 50 yards, but none of those flags came at crucial stages of the game. The Jets, on the other hand, accrued eight penalties worth 68 yards. On paper, it’s not a monumental difference. But New York was flagged for THREE illegal blocks (shouldn’t happen on a “well-coached team”) and a roughing-the-passer penalty that kept a Bengals’ drive alive at a key point in the game. Against a good team, the Jets would’ve paid dearly for their mistakes.

That’s been the theme for the Jets during the last month. They consistently shot themselves in the foot, but got away with it because they faced the Lions, Browns, Texans and Bengals. It will be an entirely different scenario for Rex Ryan’s band of misfits when they enter Foxborough in 10 days.

As confident as I am about the Pats’ chances against the Jets, their defense still frustrates me to no end. Their third-down efforts are horrendous, and their tackling, at times, looks extremely sloppy. But the NFL is all about offense. A bend-but-don’t break defense that forces turnovers in clutch spots can do the trick…if the offense can carry the load. And right now, there’s no offense with more weapons right now than the New England Patriots.

And it always helps to have some discipline. As much as I can’t stand Rex Ryan, I have to credit him for his honesty. During his post-game press conference on Thursday night, he was asked about his team’s upcoming date with the Patriots: “We know they'll outcoach us, but we have to overcome that.” He may be insufferable, but at least he’s not delusional.  

MINNESOTA AT WASHINGTON: Pick – Redskins

TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON: Pick – Texans

JACKSONVILLE AT N.Y. GIANTS: Pick – Giants

PITTSBURGH AT BUFFALO: Pick – Steelers

CAROLINA AT CLEVELAND: Pick – Browns

GREEN BAY AT ATLANTA: Pick – Packers

KANSAS CITY AT SEATTLE: Pick – Seahawks

MIAMI AT OAKLAND: Pick – Dolphins

ST. LOUIS AT DENVER: Pick – Broncos

PHILADELPHIA AT CHICAGO: Pick – Eagles

TAMPA BAY AT BALTIMORE: Pick – Ravens

SAN DIEGO AT INDIANAPOLIS: Pick – Colts

SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA: Pick - Cardinals

Happy Thanksgiving!!! Nothing like spending the day with loved ones, eating some great food and watching some football.

NEW ENGLAND AT DETROIT: Is this another trap game for the Patriots? They’re coming off huge wins over Pittsburgh and Indy, plus they’ve got a Monday night showdown with the Jets looming in Week 13, a game that will likely decide the AFC East and perhaps the top seed in the conference come playoff time.

Detroit is a game most Pats fans circled as an easy ‘W’ when the 2010 schedules were initially released. But I suppose the same could be said for their date with Cleveland in Week 9. On paper, the two-win Browns were a cakewalk. That’s not how it turned out.

And that’s exactly why I think the Pats will win. To quote the ever-so-eloquent former leader of the free world, George W. Bush: “Fool me once, shame on — [pauses] — shame on you. Fool me — [pauses] — You can't get fooled again.”

God, I love that quote. On Thanksgiving, I’m thankful for many things, and that quote is one of them. If I’m ever having a crappy day, I’ll just go to YouTube and find a bumbling George W. clip to put a smile on my face.

So, the Pats will pull this one out. It’ll be close most of the way, but the good guys take control down the stretch. PICK: PATRIOTS

NEW ORLEANS AT DALLAS: The Cowboys are riding some momentum with Jason Garrett calling the shots, and this is pretty much their Super Bowl. At home, Thanksgiving Day, against the defending champs.  I’m picking the Boys in the upset of the day. PICK: COWBOYS

CINCINNATI AT N.Y. JETS: New York hasn’t been winning pretty, but they’re facing a team that just hasn’t been winning. Won’t be close. PICK: JETS

Last week: 10-6

Season Record: 99-61