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@theMarket: The Worst Is Over

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires Columnist

It appears that we have reached our bottom in the stock market. If I'm correct, investors can now look forward to not only recouping any losses incurred over the last three months, but possibly seeing minor gains in their portfolios by year-end. Wouldn't that be nice?

Although I was worried that we might have to re-test the August lows one last time before the middle of October, it does not appear to be the case. Instead, it looks like we are on our way to the old highs. It won't be fast and it won't happen in a straight line. You can expect more pullbacks as we struggle to climb what will be most likely be a wall of worry.

The prospect of slowing global growth, including within the United States, an increasingly uncertain political climate as election rhetoric heats up, the debt ceiling debate, the Fed rate hike risk and continued disappointment in corporate earnings, are just some of the concerns that keep investors up at night. Although I believe these worries are overblown and will prove more of a distraction than a reality, it will keep all of us on our toes.

The most concrete issue between now and the end of the year will be the health of our own economy. Markets have rallied over the past few weeks because a recent string of macroeconomic data points seems to indicate our economy has hit a speed bump. In this case, bad news is good news. As such, the Federal Reserve has postponed a rate hike until the data justifies an increase. That, in turn, was cause for celebration among investors who had feared a rate hike and thus a further slowing of the economy.

As for me, I am sticking to my January forecasts. Monetary stimulus worldwide by the majority of the globe's central bankers will keep stock markets climbing, although as we have seen, not in a straight line; the more stimulus, the more gains. Here at home, I still expect only modest, single digit gains in the S&P 500 Index. This is largely due to our Fed's change in policy from monetary expansion to a more neutral stance on money supply growth. Nonetheless, I still see gains from here.

It was one reason why, although I was expecting this recent sell-off, I made the decision to stay invested. I expected the markets to come back and the timing of getting out and then getting back in was just too uncertain. Consider the last three weeks. Who could have predicted that a weak jobs report two weeks ago would catapult the markets higher by 7 percent - certainly, not me?

China, which I like, is still a topic of concern to investors. This weekend we are expecting a slew of economic data out of that country including a gauge of Gross Domestic Product. Weaker data, however, may not lead to weaker markets, since bad news is good news in that country. Every negative data point will convince investors that the government there will need to stimulate monetary policy further, as it did in this country for several years. The same holds true for Europe. The ECB launched a stimulus program at the beginning of the year. Investors not only expect that to continue, but possibly be increased if economic data warrant it.

Technically, our market appears to be in good shape. We have breached the 2,020 level on the S&P 500 Index. If we can hold on to that level, the next stop should be 2,040-2,050. Earnings have been less than spectacular thus far but, as in every quarter, expectations have been ratcheted down far enough that most companies either are beating or matching earnings estimates. I know I sound like a broken record, but my advice is to stay invested and consider this as a consolidation year.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

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The Independent Investor: The Pumpkin Patch Thrives in America

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires Columnist

The pumpkin harvest is in and America's farmers assure us that there will be enough supply available for October and maybe even through Thanksgiving. The Christmas holiday season may be a bit more problematic.

Heavy summer rains in parts of the Midwest and elsewhere, as a result of El Niño, have crimped production of this year's pumpkin crop. Illinois, by far the largest producer of pumpkins in the country, has been especially hard hit. Over 80 percent of all commercially grown pumpkins in the U.S. are grown within a 90-mile radius of Peoria. Morton, a small town outside of Peoria, for example, processes 100,000 tons of pumpkin every year. That amounts to enough canned pumpkin to make 50 million pies.

Americans love their pumpkins. Beginning in October, families make their annual trek to their local farm for that perfect pumpkin. Farmers not only bank on that event, but have expanded on that local tradition by offering consumers other harvest experiences such as a trip through their corn maze, petting zoos and haunted farm houses.

Pumpkin-flavored or scented products are also a big business. Starbucks has sold more than 200 million pumpkin-spiced lattes since introducing that drink back in 2003. Candles, pillows, pasta sauce and even pumpkin tortilla chips start showing up in grocery stores about this time.

As Halloween approaches, windows, doorsteps and porches are sprouting jack-o'-lanterns carved from pumpkins. More and more communities are holding carving contests that have elevated this member of the squash family to a work of art. The practice of pumpkin carving is centuries old and originated in Ireland. "Stingy Jack," a mythical Irishman of unsavory character, tricked the devil on several occasions, or so the story goes, with serious consequences. Jack was banished from both heaven and hell and sent roaming the Earth for eternity with only a burning coal to light his way.

Ever resourceful, Jack put the coal into a carved-out turnip. As the myth took hold, believers in England, Ireland and Scotland began making their own versions of Jack's lantern by carving scary faces into turnips, potatoes and even beets. They placed them in windows and doorways to frighten away Stingy Jack and other evil spirits around this time of year. Immigrants from the United Kingdom continued the tradition and found that pumpkins, a native fruit grown in this country for 5,000 years, made perfect jack-o'-lanterns.

The pumpkin business overall is only worth about $150 million a year in the U.S. Economically, pumpkins are a low-cost (but also a low-margin) product that requires a lot of room to grow. Acreage planted in pumpkins could be used instead for higher profit produce. As a result, only a little over 51,000 acres of these orange beauties are harvested each year. Unfortunately, the rain has reduced this year's crop by about one-third.  

The Department of Agriculture believes there will still be plenty of pumpkins to supply our needs through Thanksgiving, but there may be some shortages after that. In which case, just to play it safe, buy a few extra cans of pumpkin pie filling early, so you can be sure to have that dessert on hand for the holidays.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

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Independent Investor: Millennials The Misunderstood Generation

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires Columnist

Millennials are feeling good about their financial future, says one survey. Another poll tells us that this same class of Americans is giving up on getting rich. Both can't be right and yet they are.

The first thing you have to understand is that attitudes change depending upon one's circumstances. In a recent poll by Bloomberg, for example, 47 percent of Americans between the ages of 18-35 believed that they do not expect to live better than their parents.

That is understandable if, for example, you happen to be living under your parent's roof (and 15 percent of millennials are). It is darn difficult to imagine living better than your folks under those circumstances. This is especially true if your own parents owned a home at your age. But is this a permanent situation or will higher income and a relaxation of strict mortgage lending standards change their perspective in the future?

Student debt can also impact a young person's attitude. How can one save for the future or put a down payment on a home when every spare cent you make is earmarked to pay off that student debt? However, over time, that debt will disappear, if and when it does, will the millennials attitude change as well?

While one poll paints doom and gloom, another, this one by Wells Fargo, "How America Buys and Borrows," came to the opposite conclusion. Their survey reflects optimism with 28 percent of millennials viewing their current financial situation favorably versus 24 percent of the general population. The survey goes on to say that nearly one-third of millennials plan to buy a home in the next three years compared to the general population's 19 percent.  In 2014, 84 percent of millennials said their financial situations were stable to strong and 94 percent expected their personal financial situation to get better or stay the same.

You can find the same contradictions throughout the workplace. Polls tell you that social media has turned these millennials into team players. At the same time, this same group hates to be managed and is allergic to ideas of careerism. Some research will tell you the opposite: that competition is their driving force and they do not have much faith in their co-workers.

I could go on and on, but what explains these contradictions, in my opinion, is trying to generalize about a generation when much of what is going on is simply part of the aging process. A generation whose birth dates span 20 years (from 1980-2000), will experience changes in attitudes as they grow older and acquire more experience, especially in the work world.

Today we all want to apply our modern behavior studies and technologically sophisticated marketing tools to pigeon-hole a demographic group that is changing all the time. Like generations before them, the Millennials who have been on the job 10 years will have a different perspective (and income) than those just starting out.

Does that explain away all the differences between the Baby Boomers, for example, and this Generation "Y," of course not? In prior columns, I have identified many differences, such as their reliance on social media to communicate and access knowledge and news. Consumption patterns are clearly different from choosing less than more in living space, in valuing experience over acquiring "stuff" and in many other attitudes involving everything from social values to raising children.

The point is to sort through fact from fiction and identify the generational differences, which may not be as large as we think, and the more transitory and age-related changes that every generation experiences.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

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@theMarket: October Should Be the Bottom

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires Columnist

The third quarter was the worst for stocks in four years. Here we are in October and if history is any guide, investors should expect a bottom in the stock markets over the next three weeks.

That does not necessarily mean that history is a dependable guide. Historical data has proven to be less than helpful over the last few years. That is largely because the central bank's heavy hand in the financial markets since 2008 has skewed the data. Their intervention in both the bond and stock markets has made technical as well as fundamental tools of investing all but meaningless in valuing the markets.

I have been expecting the stock markets to re-test their lows made on Aug. 24, something we have yet to accomplish. Until we do, this correction will continue. Last week, we got close (within 4 points on the S&P 500 Index).  But markets tend to overshoot. It would not surprise me if we actually broke those lows and fell even further. That would create a panic among investors, in my opinion. And panic is what usually signals a bottom.

In addition, October is the perfect month for this to occur. The historical pattern indicates that this month should begin badly for the markets, but reverse course by the end of the month. The only problem with this scenario is that almost everyone is expecting the same thing. As a contrarian that worries me.

Certainly there is little evidence so far of the kind of reversal I am expecting. The news seems to go from bad to worse. Friday's unemployment number was much weaker than economists were expecting and triggered worries that the U.S. economy might be stalling. I don't believe you can base your assumptions on one data point, no matter what it is. The unemployment numbers have been notoriously unreliable when viewed week-to-week or even monthly.

But that didn't stop the algorithmic computers and day traders from hitting the sell button across the board on Friday morning. Investors can expect the wilds swings that we have been experiencing over the last two months to continue a bit longer. I know that most readers are worried. The tendency is to check your portfolios more and more frequently. As the stock market declines, commentators and the media always become more bearish and so will you.

The atmosphere becomes charged with emotion. As more and more pundits turn negative, they try to outdo one another in painting "what if" scenarios. The markets "could" drop much further, they say, without explaining why that would be the case. These are the same jokesters who were screaming "buy, buy, buy" at the top of the market. My advice is to ignore the circus.

Focus on what is important. Yes, your portfolios are lower than at the beginning of the year, but that doesn't mean that by year-end those paper losses won't be paired or completely disappear. I still think we will end the year positive, if only by single digits. That's why I have not changed my forecasts. So far just about everything that has happened has gone according to my playbook. Keep the faith and keep invested.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

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The Independent Investor: The Stock Market & You

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires Columnist

If one listens to the chatter throughout the financial media, you are most likely at your wits end in worry. No matter how much we may tell ourselves that this is not another 2008, the gnawing doubt in the pit of our stomach remains.

Let me say categorically that we are not entering another financial crisis. The stock market is not going to drop 50 percent from here, no matter what some strategists are saying. If you have been reading my columns since 2007, you know that when it's time to raise cash I say so. This is not one of those times.  You may not agree with me, (although you want to) so let me give you some food for thought.

Although the stock market and the economy do not necessarily perform in lock step, over time, they tend to trend in the same direction. The U.S. economy is growing moderately, employment is rising and there is nothing on the horizon that indicates that the economy is changing direction. This is decidedly different from 2008.

On the other hand, the stock market over the course of the last year or so may have gotten a bit ahead of itself. It is this discrepancy that is behind the present correction within the financial markets. As the economy continues to grow and interest rates begin to rise, investors are searching for a price level that more accurately reflects this new environment.

This adjustment period is almost over. The ultimate level in which investors finally agree that stocks represent "fair" value may be here or a 100 points lower on the S&P 500 Index. If your time horizon is anything longer than next week, that level should not be as important as the longer term direction of the market. To date, there is no evidence that the stock market has changed its long-term trend, which is up.

Over the past several years, most investors have experienced fairly good gains in their portfolios. To some extent, the market's stellar performance since the financial crisis has conditioned investors to expect more of the same. Anything less fills us with consternation. The problem is that expectation is not based in financial reality. Markets go up and markets go down.

It would be just wonderful if you (or your financial adviser) could time the market: selling at the top and buying at the bottom. Unfortunately, no one has been able to do that consistently in my experience. Investing is a process where no one catches the bottom (or the tops) but instead invests along the way. Normally, the best time to buy is in an environment like we are experiencing right now. Conversely, it is absolutely the worst time to sell (although emotionally that's just what you want to do).

How do you keep from making emotional decisions with your portfolio that you will regret later on? Stop looking at your account every day or week. Does knowing what you gained or lost on a daily basis help you make investment decisions for the long term?  Compare your attitude toward the stock market with how you look at the real estate market.

 Ask yourself this question, how much is your house worth today? You don't know, do you? And yet, for most of us, our house is worth more (in many cases several times more) than our financial portfolio. If your house were to fall by $10,000 by the end of this month, would you sell it? Of course not - because it is a long-term investment. In order to invest successfully, you must view your financial investments in the same way.

Don't get me wrong, losing money (even if it's only paper losses) hurts like the Bejeezus, The pain of losing is far worse than the jog of gaining. It's just how we humans are built. Just remember, we have all been here before and those who have stayed the course have benefited the most. This time will be no different.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

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Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.




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