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@theMarket: The Line in the Sand

Bill Schmick

It would seem that a low-volume battle is being fought over that 1,130-1,150 level on the S&P 500. As I expected, the break above 1,130 occurred this week and now the bulls have to defend it while attempting to push up above 1,150.

Actually, the S&P reached an intra-day high of 1148 this week. That is the highest level since May 18. Readers may recall that the present correction and subsequent trading range in the markets began with a decline in late April from a high of 1,219. Last week, I wrote that the S&P 500 would break above this trading range.

Also last week I raised my price targets on gold (to $1,350 per ounce) and silver ($36 per ounce) as well as other precious metals. If those metals continue to steamroll higher, I may have to bump up my estimates in the weeks ahead. Both metals continued to make new highs after the Federal Reserve on Tuesday said they were ready to increase their quantitative easing measures a second time if the economy continued to slow. Investors obviously are betting that QE II is in the cards because both commodities took off just minutes after the meeting.

"Explain that to me," asked one client over sushi at Shiro's this week.

Quantitative easing, for those who are unfamiliar with the concept, occurs when the Fed buys securities (in this case, Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities) in an effort to inject more money (stimulus) into the economy. Of course, more money in the system can mean higher inflation down the road if that money is used to buy goods and services. So far, that has not been the case.

All that money continues to sit on the sidelines, earning next to nothing because the banks and corporations are afraid to spend it. Since market participants discount today's actions into the future, investors are assuming that QEII will happen and, at some point down the road, that money will be spent. That will almost assuredly trigger a higher Inflation rate, so buy gold and silver now in anticipation. Of course, the best laid plans sometime go awry. Since gold and silver, along with other commodities, are generating big returns, most players are buying first and asking whether it's a good move later.

While commodities take center stage, the bulls and the bears stand toe to toe. Between them, is drawn a line in the sand that could determine whether this market rolls over once again and trades down 10 percent, or continues higher, maybe back to the April highs. I'm betting higher for now. What the bears don't understand is that the game has changed. The Fed has basically given investors a "put" on the market. Either the economy continues to grow or the Fed will come in and backstop the economy with QE II.

Tags: securities, metals, commodities      

The Independent Investor: Wheat, Weather & the Grocery Shelves

Bill Schmick

If you have been watching commodity prices over the last two months, you would think that the world's consumers are in for another escalation in food prices last seen in the summer of 2008. Yet, short-term movements in agricultural prices do not necessarily translate into higher food bills in the long term.

Much of the recent escalation in "soft commodities" like wheat, rice, coffee, corn and so on can be blamed on the weather. Readers may recall my columns "Weather and the World's Economies" and "What's the Price Tag of a Perfect Storm." In those articles, I explained how weather can impact prices of all sorts of things but especially commodities. This year's wheat crop is a good example of that.

This has been the hottest summer on record for us in the Northeast as well as other parts of the world. July was the hottest month in 150 years in Russia. By now, even if you live in Siberia, you are aware of the devastating drought within Russia, caused by that heat wave. The drought also sparked a series of fires that engulfed over 300,000 acres across seven regions. The weather and fires devastated that country's wheat crop. As a result, the government imposed an embargo on any further wheat exports, which account for 13 percent of global wheat exports.

Although the Russian wheat shortfall occupied the headlines, grain production has also suffered this summer because of severe flooding in Pakistan, China and Canada, while northwestern Europe has also suffered a drought. This has taken the wheat world by surprise. Wheat is a hardy grain resistant to all but the worst weather and producers grow it in overabundance. Huge wheat stocks have traditionally backstopped shortfalls in other soft commodities. As such, wheat is also the speculator's favorite grain to "short" since price declines are expected in all but the worst years. However, this year the tables were turned on everyone setting off a short-covering panic and buying frenzy in wheat futures which have gained over 35 percent in a short time.

There is a domino effect when a commodity as important as wheat has a sudden and sharp decline in supply. Livestock producers, for example, who may have been feeding their herds on cheap wheat are shifting out of that high-priced grain to corn. Suddenly the price of corn begins to rise. Rice, often a substitute for wheat in human consumption, has also risen recently.

In the commodity trading pits, sentiment has rapidly changed because of these windfall profits. Speculators, looking to make a fast buck on the next commodity to move are buying up anything that goes snap, crackle or pop. Normally this kind of behavior only impacts prices in the short-term (similar to the price effect of an unexpected freeze in Florida's orange juice production).

This time, however, because of wheat's function as the grain of last resort, this impact on prices could stretch out into the first quarter of next year. Investors have bid up the stocks of fertilizer, farm equipment and other agricultural-related companies as farmers around the world plan to increase their own production in an effort to fill the "wheat gap." Out in our own Midwest, farmers are optimistic that prices will be rising throughout the rest of this year and into next. But don't start stocking up on Cheerios quite yet.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is only expecting a 1.5 percent increase in prices this year, which is actually down from the prior two years, when prices grew 1.8 percent per year. The real increases in food prices are still waiting in the wings until the world's economies are on firmer footing. Once people can afford to spend again, prices are expected to move up quickly in commodities across the board.

Tags: commodities, wheat      
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Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.




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