Wednesday, October 01, 2014 02:04am
North Adams, MA now: 61 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
At The Market: Tug Of War
By Bill Schmick On: 07:32AM / Saturday January 07, 2012
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
1
All week stock averages fluctuated, usually down in the mornings and popping up to moderate gains in the afternoon. This slow grind upward however, is largely dependent on what happens next in Europe. So far there hasn't been any thing new but that could change as Europe gets back in business after their long holiday season.

As expected, the good news coming out of the U.S. economy has encouraged investors, while higher yields on Italian sovereign debt provided a counterweight that leaves the markets in a tug of war. The lack of news out of Europe allows investors to pay more attention to American data, such as the drop in the unemployment rate to 8.5% from 9.4% this time last year.

Beginning next week, however, European players should be back from their chalets in Switzerland or Spain and the fun begins all over again. At the same time, we face another earnings season and if earnings are not up to investor expectations we could definitely see a sell off.

Alcoa, the aluminum maker, kicks off the earnings season after the close on Monday and the company has already warned that higher costs and declining prices are threatening profits. Retailers admitted that Christmas sales were not as strong as they had hoped. I had warned readers not to fall prey to the holiday season hype on how great Christmas sales would be for retailers. Those who did best were those that offered thrifty consumers massive discounts off list price.

Short term, absent any new positive developments out of Europe, we could see some profit taking in the weeks ahead. That should be no surprise to investors, given my outlook for 2012. In my column "2012 could be another up and down year" I outlined the risks and opportunities we face this year. To sum up, I expect a choppy first half with a possible 'sell in May and go away' scenario. The second half could be better, thanks to election excitement and hope for a more functional Congress and Senate.

I also warned that any number of unknown events ranging from what happens in Europe, The Fed's monetary policy, and actions (or non-action) out of Washington could make any forecasts, including my own, worthless.

Take, for example, this week's rumor (later denied by the White House) that the Obama Administration is planning a mega refinancing ($1-$3 trillion) of the American mortgage market.

Back in September, I wrote in "What the Markets Missed" that such a plan was being debated within the White House. The program would not require congressional approval and could be conducted largely through the Fed, the FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It is an election year, after all, when the sitting President will do all he can to stimulate the economy before the elections. That type of left field developments has the power to dramatically alter the market's expectations.

The cross currents within the markets remain. As such, I will stay defensive with a large percentage of my portfolio sitting in bonds and dividend yielding stock funds. I will let the markets dictate my next move or when to become more aggressive. In the meantime, expect volatility.

Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or email him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.




0 Comments
     
News Headlines
Clarksburg Officials Frustrated by Financial Blunders
Gift Sculpture Installed in Williams' Restored Reading Room
Mohawk Trail Centennial Dedication Set for Saturday
Uncertainty Surrounds Dunkin' Donation of Pittsfield Church
Clarksburg Golf Course Work in Danger of Shutdown
Pittsfield Board Revokes Unused Liquor License
Letters: Thank You, Thank You, Thank You
Adams Board of Health Raises Permitting Fees
Dunkin' Donuts Withdraws Pittsfield Church Demolition Plan
NBBPW to Honor Marilyn Faulkner
Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (145)
Independent Investor (197)
Archives:
September 2014 (5)
August 2014 (7)
July 2014 (2)
June 2014 (6)
May 2014 (9)
April 2014 (8)
March 2014 (6)
February 2014 (6)
January 2014 (7)
December 2013 (8)
November 2013 (7)
October 2013 (6)
Tags:
Recession Rally Fiscal Cliff Bailout Election Banks Europe Debt Selloff Commodities Energy Deficit Jobs Stock Market Europe Euro Federal Reserve Japan Fed Taxes Interest Rates Debt Ceiling Markets Greece Retirement Currency Oil Economy Pullback Stimulus Metals Housing Crisis Stocks Congress
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: Wash, Rinse and Repeat
The Independent Investor: Is Wall Street Responsible for Climate Change?
@theMarket: Waiting on the Fed
The Independent Investor: The United States of Scotland?
The Independent Investor: Europe Follows the U.S. lead
@theMarket: What's Up With Bonds?
The Independent Investor: Baby Boomers and Retirement
@theMarket: Labor on Their Mind
The Independent Investor: Financing ISIS
@theMarket: Geopolitical Risk Trumps Economic Growth


View All
Girls Soccer: Wahconah vs...
Monday afternoon girls soccer game between Wahconah and...
Golf: Drury vs Pittsfield
Nick Boulger carded a 40 to lead the Drury High School golf...
Bike Night 2014
Motorcycles packed into the Visitor Center parking lot...
Girls Soccer: Pittsfield vs...
Trinity Cookis tallied three of Pittsfield’s seven goals...
Soccer: PHS vs Taconic
Pittsfield boys, top Taconic 5-0
Football: Smith Voc vs McCann...
McCann over Smith Voc. 53-0.
Soccer: St. Joe's vs Taconic
St. Joe 1, Taconic 1: 1st half: Tac - Ryan Abel (Colin...
McCann Tech Golf
The McCann Tech golf team dropped a 19-5 decision to...
Girls Soccer: Hoosac vs Mt....
Rand made two of her six saves in the last six minutes, and...
Berkshire Works Career Fair...
The annual Berkshire Works Career Fair connected hundreds...
Soccer: Mount Everett vs...
Bradley Lupiani scored twice to lead the Mount Everett boys...
Cross Country at Wahconah
Boys:Wahconah beat Hoosac Valley 28-31; Lenox beat Hoosac...
Soccer: Commerce vs McCann
McCann Tech's Fuller Closing in on Hundredth Point. Nico...
UCP Annual Meeting 2014
United Cerebral Palsy of Berkshire County dedicated its...
Volleyball: St. Joe s vs...
Saint Joseph's 18 13 13 0 Wahconah 25 25 25 3
Girls Soccer: Mt Greylock vs...
The Wahconah girls soccer team earned its fifth straight...
Girls Soccer: Wahconah vs...
Monday afternoon girls soccer game between Wahconah and...
Golf: Drury vs Pittsfield
Nick Boulger carded a 40 to lead the Drury High School golf...
Bike Night 2014
Motorcycles packed into the Visitor Center parking lot...
Girls Soccer: Pittsfield vs...
Trinity Cookis tallied three of Pittsfield’s seven goals...
Soccer: PHS vs Taconic
Pittsfield boys, top Taconic 5-0
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved