Tuesday, March 03, 2015 10:02am
North Adams, MA now: 18 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
@theMarket: Markets Climb a Wall of Worry
By Bill Schmick On: 12:30PM / Saturday January 21, 2012
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
0
Problems, issues, challenges, call them what you may. Nary a day has gone by when something, somewhere continues to put investors on edge. From the Straits of Hormuz to the infidelities of Republican hopefuls, the world appears to be full of surprises. Yet, the stock markets grind higher.

Why now? Haven't these same issues been with us for months? Yet, the same news on Greek debt negotiations that in the past sent stocks into a downward spiral is now simply being ignored. The continued delays in EU progress toward a monetary and fiscal solution to their financial crisis are now greeted calmly rather than with horror.

Some of the market's response can be attributed to a "no news is good news" read on events in Europe. That leaves investors to focus on the positive data coming out of the American economy, something I have been writing about for months. The data continues to improve. We are actually hearing some analysts who now believe the fundamentals of the housing markets are improving.

There is also the recurring story, first identified by me in a September column "What the Market Missed," that the administration is planning a big mortgage refinancing operation with the Fed's assistance. Anywhere from $1-3 trillion worth of U.S. mortgage holders will be able to refinance their high-interest bearing mortgages at lower rates, injecting billions into home owners' pockets.

However, all this good news has been quickly reflected in stock averages. Financials, which have been under constant selling pressure for well over a year, have suddenly rallied big in the last three weeks. Home builders have also jumped by over 10 percent in some cases in the same time period. Technology stocks overall are on a tear, despite some lackluster earnings announcements. The benchmark S&P 500 Index is already up over 5 percent so far this year and we are only now entering the third week in January.

Most indicators are flashing amber or red warning lights indicating the markets are overbought and due for a correction. I agree, although markets can remain overbought for a long time and still plow higher. When I look at the potential downside, I am not too concerned. Sure, we could drop a good 50 points or so in quick order on the S&P but that's about the extent of the downside I see right now.

If I put that in perspective, there were days last year when that kind of decline was almost a weekly occurrence. All week trader talk focused on when the correction would occur and how much the averages would decline. Unfortunately for them, markets will typically do what is most inconvenient to the most number of players.

And that's what happened this week. As traders positioned for a sell off, they were continually disappointed, the pullbacks were shallow and the markets grinded relentlessly higher, despite the worries.

Make no mistake, the good times will end but the trend over the next three months in the markets is up. So enjoy the ride short-term and don't worry too much about the inevitable pullbacks, at least for now.

Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or email him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.




0 Comments
     
News Headlines
Hancock School Committee Opens Conversation About Expansion
Adams Field Renovation Plan Makes It Into Preliminary Budget
Taconic High School Project Estimated at $116M
St. Stanislaus Preschoolers Learn a Thing Or Two From Dr. Seuss
Berkshire Taconic President Leaving At End of 2015
BMC North Reopens Operating Rooms
McCann Tech Robotics Team Demonstrates for School Committee
Williamstown Economic Development Panel Hears from North Adams Planner
New Business Offers Organic Products From Berkshires & Beyond
Battalion Falls at Home, Needs Miracle to Finish Fourth

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (161)
Independent Investor (218)
Archives:
February 2015 (7)
January 2015 (9)
December 2014 (7)
November 2014 (4)
October 2014 (9)
September 2014 (5)
August 2014 (7)
July 2014 (2)
June 2014 (6)
May 2014 (9)
April 2014 (8)
March 2014 (5)
Tags:
Housing Debt Greece Commodities Oil Congress Stocks Metals Stock Market Japan Europe Pullback Fed Selloff Federal Reserve Deficit Energy Election Markets Crisis Taxes Bailout Recession Stimulus Euro Fiscal Cliff Debt Ceiling Jobs Currency Europe Banks Rally Economy Retirement Interest Rates
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
@The Market: Full Steam Ahead
The Independent Investor: New Fiduciary Rule Would Benefit All of Us
The Independent Investor: How to Make the Most Out of Social Security
@theMarket: A Race to the Bottom
The Independent Investor: The Grecian Drama
@theMarket: The Labor Market Is on Fire
The Independent Investor: Joint Business Is Jumping
The Independent Investor: College Savings Accounts Are Not Risk-Free
@theMarket: More Stimuli Equal Higher Markets
The Independent Investor: The European Central Bank Delivers


View All
Girls BB: Middlesex @ PHS
The Generals rallied and rode an 18-point, 16-rebound...
Thunderbolt/Thunderfest 2015
The Thunderbolt Ski Race held its 80th anniversary run on...
Girls BB: Wahconah vs Hoosac...
No.1 Hoosac is heading back to the Cage as they beat No.9...
10X10 Art Party 2015
The 10X10 Festival's Real Art Party fundraiser, organized...
Berkshire Chamber Nite @...
Berkshire Chamber night on Wednesday at Mingo's in North...
Boys BB: Renaissance vs Drury
For Drury senior Justin Girard, the 63-61 quarter-final win...
Boys BB: Mount Greylock vs...
The Hoosac Valley boys basketball team got enough...
Boys BB: Quabbin vs...
Jerry McDonough scored 15 points, and Scott Steinman added...
Girls BB: Lee vs Mount...
Karli Retzel hit a 3-pointer and went 2-for-2 at the foul...
Boys Hockey: Wahconah vs...
The No. 5 Warriors won over No. 4 Belchertown 2-0 Tuesday...
Boys Hockey: Mt Everett vs...
Amherst No. 3 seed eliminated No. 6 Mount Everett 3-0...
Boys BB: Holyoke Catholic vs...
Monday evening, as the No. 5 Lenox basketball team was...
Congressman Neal Tours...
U.S. Rep. Richard Neal toured Unistress, Modern Mold & Tool...
Winterfest 2015
Chowder, wagon rides and ice sculptures attracted residents...
State Voc Semifinals
FINAL: Franklin Tech advances to State Voc Final with 63-44...
Berkshire County Bowling...
Lee won the Berkshire County Bowling Title over Drury 3...
Girls BB: Middlesex @ PHS
The Generals rallied and rode an 18-point, 16-rebound...
Thunderbolt/Thunderfest 2015
The Thunderbolt Ski Race held its 80th anniversary run on...
Girls BB: Wahconah vs Hoosac...
No.1 Hoosac is heading back to the Cage as they beat No.9...
10X10 Art Party 2015
The 10X10 Festival's Real Art Party fundraiser, organized...
Berkshire Chamber Nite @...
Berkshire Chamber night on Wednesday at Mingo's in North...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved