Friday, January 30, 2015 05:54am
North Adams, MA now: 28 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
@theMarket: Markets Climb a Wall of Worry
By Bill Schmick On: 12:30PM / Saturday January 21, 2012
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
0
Problems, issues, challenges, call them what you may. Nary a day has gone by when something, somewhere continues to put investors on edge. From the Straits of Hormuz to the infidelities of Republican hopefuls, the world appears to be full of surprises. Yet, the stock markets grind higher.

Why now? Haven't these same issues been with us for months? Yet, the same news on Greek debt negotiations that in the past sent stocks into a downward spiral is now simply being ignored. The continued delays in EU progress toward a monetary and fiscal solution to their financial crisis are now greeted calmly rather than with horror.

Some of the market's response can be attributed to a "no news is good news" read on events in Europe. That leaves investors to focus on the positive data coming out of the American economy, something I have been writing about for months. The data continues to improve. We are actually hearing some analysts who now believe the fundamentals of the housing markets are improving.

There is also the recurring story, first identified by me in a September column "What the Market Missed," that the administration is planning a big mortgage refinancing operation with the Fed's assistance. Anywhere from $1-3 trillion worth of U.S. mortgage holders will be able to refinance their high-interest bearing mortgages at lower rates, injecting billions into home owners' pockets.

However, all this good news has been quickly reflected in stock averages. Financials, which have been under constant selling pressure for well over a year, have suddenly rallied big in the last three weeks. Home builders have also jumped by over 10 percent in some cases in the same time period. Technology stocks overall are on a tear, despite some lackluster earnings announcements. The benchmark S&P 500 Index is already up over 5 percent so far this year and we are only now entering the third week in January.

Most indicators are flashing amber or red warning lights indicating the markets are overbought and due for a correction. I agree, although markets can remain overbought for a long time and still plow higher. When I look at the potential downside, I am not too concerned. Sure, we could drop a good 50 points or so in quick order on the S&P but that's about the extent of the downside I see right now.

If I put that in perspective, there were days last year when that kind of decline was almost a weekly occurrence. All week trader talk focused on when the correction would occur and how much the averages would decline. Unfortunately for them, markets will typically do what is most inconvenient to the most number of players.

And that's what happened this week. As traders positioned for a sell off, they were continually disappointed, the pullbacks were shallow and the markets grinded relentlessly higher, despite the worries.

Make no mistake, the good times will end but the trend over the next three months in the markets is up. So enjoy the ride short-term and don't worry too much about the inevitable pullbacks, at least for now.

Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or email him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.




0 Comments
     
News Headlines
Williamstown's Spruces Reuse Committee Seeking Input, Funds
Adams Planning to Sell Old Community Center Building
Pittsfield Implementing New Pavement Management System
MCLA Men Win in Dramatic Fashion; Women Get First League Win
'Mortdecai': Of Moustaches and Men
Clark Art Wagers Homer Masterpiece on Patriot's Win
Adams Selectmen Review Potential Tax, Fee Hikes
Protect Your Online Data With These Tips
New Doctor Joins BMC's Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation Team
BFAIR Sets Family Night Fun at Greylock Bowl

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (158)
Independent Investor (214)
Archives:
January 2015 (9)
January 2014 (1)
December 2014 (7)
November 2014 (4)
October 2014 (9)
September 2014 (5)
August 2014 (7)
July 2014 (2)
June 2014 (6)
May 2014 (9)
April 2014 (8)
March 2014 (6)
February 2014 (6)
Tags:
Economy Energy Selloff Metals Fed Rally Pullback Crisis Federal Reserve Debt Ceiling Stock Market Deficit Currency Oil Recession Stimulus Congress Interest Rates Taxes Retirement Markets Commodities Bailout Election Europe Fiscal Cliff Stocks Japan Greece Euro Banks Europe Debt Jobs Housing
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
The Independent Investor: College Savings Accounts Are Not Risk-Free
@theMarket: More Stimuli Equal Higher Markets
The Independent Investor: The European Central Bank Delivers
@theMarket: Tail That Wagged the Dog
The Independent Investor: What's Happening to the Movies?
@theMarket: What Will the New Year Bring?
The Independent Investor: Think twice Before Co-Signing Student Loan
@theMarket: What Will the New Year Bring?
The Independent Investor: Could Greece Upset the Applecart?
@theMarket: Santa Comes to Town


View All
Alpine Ski
Multiple teams at Slalom, Bousquet
Hockey: Mt Everett vs...
The Wahconah hockey team defeated Mount Everett, 3-2,...
Berkshire County UCP Telethon
United Cerebral Palsy of Berkshire County held its 52nd and...
Girls BB: Athol vs Hoosac...
McKenzie Robinson dished out nine assists to help the...
Swimming: Wahconah vs St....
Liz Bernardy won the 100-yard freestyle and 200 individual...
Boys BB: Drury vs Hoosac...
Friday night basketball, Drury boys win over Hoosac Valley...
Girls BB: Lee vs Mount...
Barrett scored a game-high 27 points in Thursday's 57-44...
Boys BB: Smith Academy vs...
The Pittsfield boys' basketball team defeated Smitch...
North Adams Chamber @...
The North Adams Chamber of Commerce held its first...
Hockey: St Mary's vs Wahconah
The Wahconah hockey team defeated St. Mary's Wednesday...
Berkshire Chamber @GFCU
Berkshire Chamber of Commerce held its January networking...
Boys BB: Wahconah vs Drury
The Wahconah boys basketball team was able to pull away and...
Boys BB: Hoosac Valley vs...
Jerry McDonough scored 14 points and went 4-for-6 at the...
Girls BB: Wahconah vs Lenox
The Wahconah girls basketball team got back on track with a...
Girls BB: Hoosac Valley vs Mt...
Hoosac used 25 points and 11 rebounds from Emily Rosse to...
Co-ed XC Skiing
The Mount Greylock cross country ski team had the home...
Alpine Ski
Multiple teams at Slalom, Bousquet
Hockey: Mt Everett vs...
The Wahconah hockey team defeated Mount Everett, 3-2,...
Berkshire County UCP Telethon
United Cerebral Palsy of Berkshire County held its 52nd and...
Girls BB: Athol vs Hoosac...
McKenzie Robinson dished out nine assists to help the...
Swimming: Wahconah vs St....
Liz Bernardy won the 100-yard freestyle and 200 individual...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved