Friday, May 22, 2015 10:34am
North Adams, MA now: 61 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
LOG IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
The Independent Investor: 'Sell in May and Go Away?'
By Bill Schmick On: 04:42PM / Thursday May 03, 2012
Important
1
Interesting
1
Funny
1
Awesome
1
Infuriating
1
Ridiculous
1
If I hear one more person spout that line, I think I'll go nuts. Suddenly, because this cliche has worked for the past two years, it has become gospel to believe it will happen again this year. Investors should be wary.

Back in July 2008, I wrote in "Myths of the Market":

"Sell in May and Go Away," is one often quoted saying that implies that stock market returns are higher in the November-April period than in the May-October months. After 27 years experience in global markets, I tend to agree. My belief is backed up by multiple studies that indicate that in 36 out of 37 developed and emerging markets this indicator works the majority of the time. Although no one can provide one single cause for this, I believe it has something to do with summer vacations, especially in Europe, where the effect has been noticeable since 1694."
 
As a contrarian, when everyone is expecting the same thing, (in this case, a sell-off in the markets lasting into the fall), I tend to lean the other way. There certainly are plenty of good reasons to be concerned that this third year will be the charm. Questions over QE3, the ongoing Euro crisis, a slowdown in China, an incredible first quarter rally in stocks—all of these would indicate we need a correction or at least a healthy pull back.

The most convenient thing for all of us would be to cash in our chips, get to the sidelines and enjoy our summer. If you had done so in 2010, you would have missed a meager 1 percent gain in the markets between April 30 and Oct. 31. In 2011, you would have dodged a 6.7 percent slump in the averages. But markets usually do what is most inconvenient for the greatest number of investors.

A recent report from Ned Davis Research pointed out that the Selling May strategy doesn't work nearly as well when it occurs in a presidential election year. They looked at every presidential election since 1900. Investors on average would have missed a hefty 4.4 percent gain as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average in those years by selling in May. If an incumbent wins, the gains are even higher (7.6 percent).

Now, before you reverse course and buy everything in sight, a word of caution is appropriate. The same study did show that, on average, a correction did occur during the second quarter of presidential election years. The duration of the pullback is what differs.

Usually, a summer rally occurs after the second quarter sell-off in an election year. When the incumbent party has lost the election, the summer rally fizzled out and the Dow made a new low in late October, followed by a weak year-end rally. When the incumbent won, the summer rally was stronger and the pullack in the fall was mild, followed by a strong gain into the end of the year.

The explanation for the differences in these presidential election-year markets comes down to uncertainty. That uncertainty is compounded when the economy has been weak, as it is now. Leadership in times like these is extremely important to market investors. Some would argue that the incumbent (the devil you know) is preferable to one you don't know, who may or may not, usher in successful policy changes. The presidential candidate's party affiliation did not appear to have any bearing on the results.

So the moral of this tale is that there may still be a sell-off between now and the end of June, but politics will have an inordinate influence on what happens this summer and fall.

Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or email him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.



0 Comments
     
News Headlines
Memorial Day Events 2015
Pittsfield Community Connection Introduces Team Fighting Youth Violence
Adams Library Rededication To Take Place Saturday
iBerkshire Tag Sales: May 22-24
Lanesborough FinCom Will Support Mount Greylock Budget Request
Dr. Merselis Awarded Honorary Business Doctorate From Antioch
McCann Tech Grad Interns on Fenway Grounds Crew
Adams Board of Health 'Blindsided' by Code Officer Cut
Pittsfield Councilors Calling For Engineering Study On City Hall
Majority of McCann Teachers Should Recieve High Evaluation Scores

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (169)
Independent Investor (228)
Archives:
May 2015 (4)
May 2014 (3)
April 2015 (8)
March 2015 (6)
February 2015 (7)
January 2015 (9)
December 2014 (7)
November 2014 (4)
October 2014 (9)
September 2014 (5)
August 2014 (7)
July 2014 (2)
June 2014 (6)
Tags:
Recession Interest Rates Debt Fed Stimulus Energy Europe Commodities Bailout Euro Metals Pullback Europe Federal Reserve Economy Greece Crisis Japan Stocks Debt Ceiling Selloff Stock Market Fiscal Cliff Rally Election Jobs Congress Housing Deficit Markets Banks Oil Taxes Retirement Currency
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
The Independent Investor: Will Memorial Day Kick Off a Strong Summer?
@theMarket: Another Record High
The Independent Investor: Millennials & Money
The Independent Investor: Avian Flu Scrambles the Egg Business
The Independent Investor: Does Another Trade Pact Make Sense?
@theMarket: Buy on the News
The Independent Investor: Should You Manage That 401(k)?
@theMarket: Right Back Into the Range
The Independent Investor: Brazil Not For the Faint of Heart
@theMarket: Earnings on Deck


SB: Hoosac Valley at Lenox
Megan Goyette pitched a two-hiter and Kali Puppolo went...
Senior Citizen Prom 2015
Drury High School Sociology Classes hosted the Senior...
T&F: Drury @ Hoosac
The Drury girls took the last track and field events Friday...
T&F: PHS @ Taconic
Jay Doucette won the 100 meters and shot put and placed...
BArT Prom 2015
Berkshire Arts & Technology Public Charter School held its...
Drury High Prom 2015
Drury High School held its prom at the school on Saturday...
Lenox Prom 2015
Lenox High School students were announced as they made...
Mount Everett Prom 2015
Mount Everett School held its prom at Crissey Farm in Great...
MCLA Graduation 2015
The Massachusetts College Of Liberal Arts Class of 2015...
Spring Neighborlies 2015
The Northern Berkshire Community Coalition had its...
UNO Community Center Opens
The United Neighborhood Organization (UNO) in North Adams...
Lacrosse: Wahconah at...
When the Pittsfield boys lacrosse team met with Wahconah on...
Girls Lacrosse: Mt Greylock...
Sarah Stripp scored five goals and added three assists to...
SB: Sabis at McCann Tech
Haley Malloy struck out 10, and Taylor Sprague went 3-for-4...
SB: Lee at Hoosac Valley
The Hoosac Valley softball team got a quick lead en route...
Lacrosse: Taconic at Wahconah
The Wahconah boys lacrosse team defeated Taconic Monday...
SB: Hoosac Valley at Lenox
Megan Goyette pitched a two-hiter and Kali Puppolo went...
Senior Citizen Prom 2015
Drury High School Sociology Classes hosted the Senior...
T&F: Drury @ Hoosac
The Drury girls took the last track and field events Friday...
T&F: PHS @ Taconic
Jay Doucette won the 100 meters and shot put and placed...
BArT Prom 2015
Berkshire Arts & Technology Public Charter School held its...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings |
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2012 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved

Privacy Policy| User Agreement