Thursday, May 23, 2013 02:15pm
North Adams, MA now: 75 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
@theMarket: A Rising Tide
By Bill Schmick On: 04:10PM / Friday January 25, 2013
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
0

That old saying, "a rising tide lifts all boats" certainly applies to the stock market this month. It appears that more and more investors are abandoning the bond market and finally embracing equities. That spells further upside.

Last week, U.S. investors moved a net $3.8 billion into equity mutual funds. The week before that $7.5 billion in new inflows were recorded along with over $10 billion invested in exchange traded funds. That's the best two-week inflow into equity in 13 years.

Over the last few years, I have kept tabs of the money flows in and out of the stock market. We have endured 22 consecutive months of outflows from the equity market. That money went into the bond market, CDs and checking accounts. Many of those investors did well by investing in U.S. Treasury and other bonds, since interest rates continued to fall while fixed income prices rose. They were convinced that equities were going to plummet at any moment. It didn't happen and now, thanks to the record low rates of return offered by these safe havens, investors may be embracing risk once again.

I have often said that as long as money was flowing out of the stock market, volatility would continue to increase while the probability of making new historical highs in the averages would be slim at best. The S&P 500 Index is up about 120 percent from the day I urged investors to re-enter the market back in March of 2009, and we are now within 5 percent of regaining the historical highs of 2007 in most of the averages

We need an expansion in volume and a wave of new buying in order to push us over the top. As I have said, a great many retail investors have sat on the sidelines through this four-year rally. It appears that they may now be moving out of their bond holdings and back into the stock market providing the fuel we need for further gains.

The contrarian in me worries, however, that if we do see the retail investor return to stocks, it may signal an approaching top to this four-year bull run. There have been times in the past, most notably the rush into technology stocks back in 2000, where the retail crowd has jumped in at the absolute worse time. I don't believe that the retail investor is always wrong. There have been plenty of times that the common sense approach of the individual has trumped the hedge fund mentality of most professionals.

The market's grind higher this week was that much more impressive given the earnings disaster of one tech company that, until recently, was the apple of most investors' eyes. I recall warning readers last summer of the high, in fact, impossible valuation that the market was awarding this company. Unfortunately, few readers took my advice to sell.

Stocks are overextended and could have a minor pullback at any moment, but overall I expect the markets will continue their winning streak through the end of the month and beyond. Underlying the averages, I have been seeing a lot of sector rotation where traders are selling the high flyers and buying the laggards. That is also happening overseas where emerging markets, for example, have been subject to profit-taking this month. I would use these pullbacks to add to positions.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.


1Comments
     
News Headlines
Literature Festival Events Slated for North Adams Schools
Pittsfield Cyclocross Returns to Common
Holocaust Survivor Issues Call to Action
Earth Removal Permit Approved for Clarksburg Golf Course
Adams Hiring Part-time Workers for Visitors Center
Yamamoto, Vareschi Honored at Williamstown Town Meeting
Pittsfield Students Create TV Documentary On Invasive Species
Hundreds Line Pittsfield Streets to Mourn Fallen Soldier
Clark Art Offers Free Admission to Military Personnel
Holiday Hours: Memorial Day
Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (102)
Independent Investor (137)
Archives:
May 2013 (5)
May 2012 (2)
April 2013 (6)
March 2013 (7)
February 2013 (7)
January 2013 (6)
December 2012 (8)
November 2012 (4)
October 2012 (6)
September 2012 (8)
August 2012 (7)
July 2012 (6)
June 2012 (9)
Tags:
Pullback Federal Reserve Jobs Fed Congress Interest Rates Currency Crisis Taxes Debt Energy Bailout Election Stock Market Markets Stimulus Japan Europe Economy Rally Unemployment Banks Retirement Oil Deficit Greece Recession Fiscal Cliff Euro Europe Qeii Debt Ceiling Commodities Markets Metals
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: 1995 Redux?
The Independent Investor: Sticker Shock in Housing Market
The Independent Investor: Online Education Is Not a Panacea
@theMarket: The Goldilocks Market
The Independent Investor: Where Others Fear to Tread
@theMarket: Five for Five
The Independent Investor: R2D2 and the Stock Market
The Independent Investor: Insider Trading Alive & Kicking on Capitol Hill
The Independent Investor: Japan: The Rising Sun, Part II
@theMarket: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back


View All
Spec. Mitchell Daehling...
Fallen soldier Mitchell Daehling was honored by hundreds...
Softball: Mt. Everett at...
5/21/13 The Mount Everett girls softball team traveled to...
Senior Citizen Prom 2013
The Drury High School Senior Citizen's Prom was held on...
Baseball: Monument at Drury
5/20/13 The Drury baseball team lost to Monument Mountain...
Steel Rail Half Marathon
About 500 people ran the Steel Rail Half Marathon, which...
U-14 Boys Soccer
5/18/13 The North Adams U-14 Boys Soccer team NA Rovers...
Drury High Prom 2013
Drury High School held its prom on Saturday night at the...
McCann Tech Prom 2013
McCann Technical School held its senior prom Saturday night...
MCLA Graduation 2013
MCLA held the 2013 commencement on Saturday.
Mount Everett High Prom 2013
5/17/13 Mount Everett High School held its senior prom...
Third Thursday May 2013
Third Thursdays returned this week. The Pittsfield festival...
Softball: Drury at Pittsfield
5/16/13 The Drury girls softball team traveled to...
Torchia SB League
5/15/13 The Pat Torchia Softball League, played Wednesday...
Williams College Children...
Jennifer Marlowe's prekindergarten class visited North...
LAX: Mt. Anthony at Greylock
The Mount Greylock girl's lacrosse team took on visiting...
LAX: Wahconah at Hoosac
The Wahconah girls lacrosse team traveled to Hoosac Valley,...
Spec. Mitchell Daehling...
Fallen soldier Mitchell Daehling was honored by hundreds...
Softball: Mt. Everett at...
5/21/13 The Mount Everett girls softball team traveled to...
Senior Citizen Prom 2013
The Drury High School Senior Citizen's Prom was held on...
Baseball: Monument at Drury
5/20/13 The Drury baseball team lost to Monument Mountain...
Steel Rail Half Marathon
About 500 people ran the Steel Rail Half Marathon, which...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings | Berkshires Map |
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-473-8799
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved