Friday, September 19, 2014 08:07pm
North Adams, MA now: 48 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
@theMarket: Flirting With Record Highs — Again
By Bill Schmick On: 07:31AM / Saturday May 24, 2014
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
0

You can't keep a good market down, so why is everyone so darn worried about the stock market? Could it be that too much of a good thing may be dangerous to your financial health? If so, someone should tell the bulls.

Truly, no one should be complaining. Here we are at the end of May, normally a month where the markets come under selling pressure, and we are a mere five points away from the S&P 500 Index's all-time high. The contrarian in me says that too many people are waiting for the shoe to drop right now, so it probably won't.

Officially, it is the Memorial Day weekend that kicks off the herd migration from Wall Street's gray canyons and valleys to more amenable vistas. Highly-polished Wing-tips are exchanged for Gucci sandals, as the high and mighty head for the over-crowded beaches and multimillion dollar "cottages" of Long Island and the Hamptons.

Those who remain are the young and ambitious. Without much trading authority, they will have a hard time moving markets. Nonetheless, they will attempt to make a killing for their bosses at the expense of the rest of us. As market volume dries up this summer, it is a toss-up on whether markets become even more volatile or simply wallow in apathy and neglect.

In my career, I have seen both during the summer doldrums. In recent years, the markets have tended to be more volatile with fairly large declines in June and July. In other periods, you could hear a pin drop for weeks at a time on New York trading floors. I'm betting we see more volatility than less.

While the markets continue to grind higher so does the short interest in the stock market.

Short interest is the quantity of stock shares that investors have sold short but not yet covered or closed out. Many strategists use short interest as a market-sentiment indicator, since it indicates how many investors think a stock's price (or market) is likely to fall. Both the short interest aggregate dollar amount of the S&P 500 Index and short interest ratio (days to cover or buy back these shorts) are at levels not seen since mid-2007. We all know how that ended for investors.

The markets continued to make new highs until the end of the year and then subsequently crashed in 2008-2009.

Last week the markets touched my S&P 500 Index target of 1,900 — briefly. It was so quick that I half hoped we would make another stab at that level and possibly break it. It appears we are trying to accomplish that as I write this. Markets are never neat and tidy so if we break this level to the upside, I would expect a bout of short-covering which could propel the markets higher by another 20-40 points quickly. At the same time, I think too many people are bearish for a sell-off right here and now. If we were to see a fast jump higher and a panic stampede into the market at that time we just might be set up for a last hurrah.

Have a happy Memorial Day weekend. But while you are grilling, swimming or just plain having fun, do me a favor. Take a moment to remember our servicemen and women both past and present. I know I will be remembering my buddies in Vietnam that didn't make it. Semper Fi

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.



0 Comments
     
News Headlines
Cheshire Property Tax Rate Rising for 2015
Clark Offers Special Free Hours for Magna Carta Exhibit
Two Fundraisers Planned For Local Girl's Walk to Cure Diabetes Team
KJ's Dance With Me Enrolling Students
'The Drop': Tells a Low-Down Tale
North Adams Happenings: Sept. 17-23
Children's Etiquette Classes Scheduled
Clark Art Receives $118,000 to Digitize Book Collection
10X10 Upstreet Arts Festival Seeks Submissions
NBCC's UNITY Program Announces 2014-15 Teen Programs
Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (144)
Independent Investor (196)
Archives:
September 2014 (3)
September 2013 (3)
August 2014 (7)
July 2014 (2)
June 2014 (6)
May 2014 (9)
April 2014 (8)
March 2014 (6)
February 2014 (6)
January 2014 (7)
December 2013 (8)
November 2013 (7)
October 2013 (6)
Tags:
Federal Reserve Markets Selloff Jobs Housing Pullback Energy Currency Fed Recession Euro Bailout Stimulus Commodities Greece Debt Ceiling Debt Europe Banks Europe Fiscal Cliff Crisis Economy Japan Taxes Stocks Oil Metals Retirement Deficit Stock Market Congress Interest Rates Election Rally
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: Waiting on the Fed
The Independent Investor: The United States of Scotland?
The Independent Investor: Europe Follows the U.S. lead
@theMarket: What's Up With Bonds?
The Independent Investor: Baby Boomers and Retirement
@theMarket: Labor on Their Mind
The Independent Investor: Financing ISIS
@theMarket: Geopolitical Risk Trumps Economic Growth
The Independent Investor: Beware the Russian Bear
The Independent Investor: Why Some Corporations Are Leaving America


View All
Girls Soccer: Lenox vs Hoosac
Hoosac Valley posts an 8-2 win over Lenox.
Walk a Mile at 3rd Thursday
The annual Walk a Mile in Her Shoes, kicking of September's...
Barrington Stage BYP Social
Berkshire Young Professionals were at the Barrington Stage...
Soccer: Wahconah vs...
The Pittsfield boys’ soccer team had the complete package...
Soccer: Taconic vs Drury
Drury boys soccer 3-1 loss to Taconic, Wednesday afternoon....
Golf: Monument vs Mount...
Two standout rounds for Mount Greylock and one standup move...
Volleyball: Lee vs Mount...
Lee 3, Mount Greylock 0, The visiting Wildcats won 25-23,...
Soccer: Mount Greylock vs...
Eric Hirsch scored twice and set up two goals to lead the...
Josh Billings RunAground 2014
The team from Pittsfield's Allen Heights Veterinary won the...
Football: Amherst vs Williams
Football: Amherst vs Williams in a scrimmage on Saturday...
Girls Soccer: Drury vs...
Taconic girls soccer team took a 3-2 win over Drury on...
Football: Wahconah vs...
The Wahconah Warriors tamed the Chicopee Colts 44-6 at home...
Football: Taconic vs...
The Taconic Braves ran over the Cathedral Panthers 20-8 at...
Youth Center Chair Reception...
Inspired seating was on display Saturday night in the...
Volleyball: Mount Greylock vs...
Mount Greylock bested Wahconah 3-2 on Wednesday night at...
Northern Berkshire Food Fest...
Hundreds flocked to Main Street on Sunday for the annual...
Girls Soccer: Lenox vs Hoosac
Hoosac Valley posts an 8-2 win over Lenox.
Walk a Mile at 3rd Thursday
The annual Walk a Mile in Her Shoes, kicking of September's...
Barrington Stage BYP Social
Berkshire Young Professionals were at the Barrington Stage...
Soccer: Wahconah vs...
The Pittsfield boys’ soccer team had the complete package...
Soccer: Taconic vs Drury
Drury boys soccer 3-1 loss to Taconic, Wednesday afternoon....
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved