Sunday, April 19, 2015 08:38am
North Adams, MA now: 39 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
@theMarket: June Swoon
By Bill Schmick On: 02:37PM / Friday June 13, 2014
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
0

This week the stock market was actually down three days in a row. It caught many investors off guard, but by the end of the week, traders were expecting the dip buyers to arrive. They did not disappoint.

As we approach the first days of summer, the stock market appears to be becoming more, rather than less, volatile.  The VIX, the volatility index, actually jumped a bit from its record lows as turmoil in Iraq and a subsequent spike in oil prices spooked the markets.

Earlier in the week, the World Bank also cut their economic forecast for 2014 global growth from 3.2% to 2.8%. And here in America, the election defeat of Eric Cantor in the Virginia Republican Primaries provided additional uncertainty for investors. Given the news, who could blame traders for taking a little off the table, especially at these record-high index levels?

So can we expect the markets to regain the losses suffered this week? It looks like we could see the S&P 500 Index hit the 1,950 level before all is said and done. Some think that could be the top but calling an end to this bull market has been a fool’s game. I would suggest there are better things to do.

On the economic front, there is plenty to be happy about. The deficit is improving dramatically, bank lending among the smaller, regional banks is surging and we are even seeing some improved lending from the larger banks as well.  

On the negative side, the rate of national debt is still growing, although at a reduced rate. So far, thanks to the extremely low interest on that debt, the servicing costs remain low but that will change as interest rates rise. It is a problem and one that needs to be addressed fairly soon.

Corporations are still hoarding cash. The money they do spend is being used to pay dividends or buy back their stock or someone else’s. As a result, merger and acquisition activity is at record highs. As this rate, it will soon become cheaper to build rather than buy additional capacity. And that will be a good thing for the nation’s health. Our stock of nonresidential equipment in this country is getting older and there is a widening gap between that stock and its rate of replacement.

When and if corporations decide that the future economic picture looks strong enough to risk building new plant and equipment, employment will rise and so will wages. That day is coming. We have recently witnessed the rise of a number of activist’s hedge fund managers who are urging corporate managements to either increase their capital expenditures or sell out to someone that will.  

So overall, the picture is brightening. If I look out over the longer term, I see more positives than negatives for the economy. All we need do is get through the next few months of uncertainty and stock market volatility. This month may be the beginning of that pullback I’ve been looking for. If it occurs, it shouldn’t last more than a month or two. All it requires is a little patience.

That’s not so bad, is it?

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.



0 Comments
     
News Headlines
North Adams Little Leaguers to Appear on NESN Broadcast
State Secretary Ash Preps Berkshire Leaders For Baker's Economic Plans
Clark Art Unveils Super Bowl Prize
BFAIR Speaker Example in Overcoming Challenges
Business, Education, Political Officials Eye Growth Of Innovation Economy
Cultural Pittsfield This Week: April 17-23
Pittsfield Food For Fines Program Ends April 18
Casting, Opening Dates Set for Shakespeare & Company’s 38th Season
Pittsfield Woman Tapped as New Executive Director at Snow Farm
Downing Named One of the 'Good Guys' by Massachusetts Women's Political Caucus

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (166)
Independent Investor (222)
Archives:
April 2015 (3)
April 2014 (2)
March 2015 (6)
February 2015 (7)
January 2015 (9)
December 2014 (7)
November 2014 (4)
October 2014 (9)
September 2014 (5)
August 2014 (7)
July 2014 (2)
June 2014 (6)
May 2014 (9)
Tags:
Commodities Debt Ceiling Housing Bailout Europe Markets Economy Fed Oil Metals Crisis Interest Rates Fiscal Cliff Europe Currency Deficit Jobs Federal Reserve Stimulus Stocks Debt Retirement Election Stock Market Banks Taxes Selloff Japan Euro Rally Congress Recession Greece Pullback Energy
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: Earnings on Deck
@theMarket: Will the Second Quarter Be Like the First?
The Independent Investor: How to Teach Your Kid to Become the Next Warren Buffet
@theMarket: The Fed Does It Again
The Independent Investor: Financial Challenges Facing Single Parents
@theMarket: Pay Attention to Diverging Markets
The Independent Investor: Kids & Money
@theMarket: Home on the Range
The Independent Investor: Rise of the Smoothie
@The Market: Full Steam Ahead


View All
STEM, Industry Forum
U.S. Rep. Richard Neal and the Berkshire Chamber of...
BFAIR Annual Meeting 2015
BFAIR holds its annual breakfast meeting at the Williams...
3rd Thursday Events 2015
Director of Cultural Development Jen Glockner and Mayor...
Berkshire Chamber Nite @...
The Berkshire Chamber of Commerce held a networking event...
Tennis: MM Girls @ PHS
Monument Mountain girls tennis team won 5-0 over Pittsfield...
Tennis: MM Boys @ PHS
Monument Mountain boys tennis team won 4-1 over Pittsfield...
IS183 Versace Tchotchke Gala
IS183 Art School of the Berkshires' annual over-the-top...
Tennis: MG @ Lenox
Cami Sachetti and Emily Czelusnick battled to a 7-5, 6-4...
St. Joseph High School Play
Students at St. Joseph High School are putting their own...
Wahconah Spring Musical '9 to...
Wahconah Regional High School students rehearse for the...
Pittsfield Eggstravaganza...
Youngsters scrambled for treats on Sunday morning at...
Girls Lacrosse: PHS vs MG
Spring has slightly sprung in Williamstown as the Mount...
Schantz Exhibit at Berkshire...
Attendees mingle at a reception Thursday for the opening of...
Freeman Center Sex Assault...
The Elizabeth Freeman Center held a rally to raise...
Tyer Announces for Mayor
Linda Tyer, Pittsfield city clerk, announced her candidacy...
Pittsfield Vietnam Memorial
A memorial service was held in Park Square for those killed...
STEM, Industry Forum
U.S. Rep. Richard Neal and the Berkshire Chamber of...
BFAIR Annual Meeting 2015
BFAIR holds its annual breakfast meeting at the Williams...
3rd Thursday Events 2015
Director of Cultural Development Jen Glockner and Mayor...
Berkshire Chamber Nite @...
The Berkshire Chamber of Commerce held a networking event...
Tennis: MM Girls @ PHS
Monument Mountain girls tennis team won 5-0 over Pittsfield...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved