Sunday, May 03, 2015 08:00pm
North Adams, MA now: 63 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
@theMarket: June Swoon
By Bill Schmick On: 02:37PM / Friday June 13, 2014
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
0

This week the stock market was actually down three days in a row. It caught many investors off guard, but by the end of the week, traders were expecting the dip buyers to arrive. They did not disappoint.

As we approach the first days of summer, the stock market appears to be becoming more, rather than less, volatile.  The VIX, the volatility index, actually jumped a bit from its record lows as turmoil in Iraq and a subsequent spike in oil prices spooked the markets.

Earlier in the week, the World Bank also cut their economic forecast for 2014 global growth from 3.2% to 2.8%. And here in America, the election defeat of Eric Cantor in the Virginia Republican Primaries provided additional uncertainty for investors. Given the news, who could blame traders for taking a little off the table, especially at these record-high index levels?

So can we expect the markets to regain the losses suffered this week? It looks like we could see the S&P 500 Index hit the 1,950 level before all is said and done. Some think that could be the top but calling an end to this bull market has been a fool’s game. I would suggest there are better things to do.

On the economic front, there is plenty to be happy about. The deficit is improving dramatically, bank lending among the smaller, regional banks is surging and we are even seeing some improved lending from the larger banks as well.  

On the negative side, the rate of national debt is still growing, although at a reduced rate. So far, thanks to the extremely low interest on that debt, the servicing costs remain low but that will change as interest rates rise. It is a problem and one that needs to be addressed fairly soon.

Corporations are still hoarding cash. The money they do spend is being used to pay dividends or buy back their stock or someone else’s. As a result, merger and acquisition activity is at record highs. As this rate, it will soon become cheaper to build rather than buy additional capacity. And that will be a good thing for the nation’s health. Our stock of nonresidential equipment in this country is getting older and there is a widening gap between that stock and its rate of replacement.

When and if corporations decide that the future economic picture looks strong enough to risk building new plant and equipment, employment will rise and so will wages. That day is coming. We have recently witnessed the rise of a number of activist’s hedge fund managers who are urging corporate managements to either increase their capital expenditures or sell out to someone that will.  

So overall, the picture is brightening. If I look out over the longer term, I see more positives than negatives for the economy. All we need do is get through the next few months of uncertainty and stock market volatility. This month may be the beginning of that pullback I’ve been looking for. If it occurs, it shouldn’t last more than a month or two. All it requires is a little patience.

That’s not so bad, is it?

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.



0 Comments
     
News Headlines
Our Neighbors: Strange Bedfellows
MCLA Softball Wins League Title
Williamstown Police Falls in Extra Innings as Cal Ripken Season Begins
Adams' Meczywor Homers for MCLA to Lift Blazers to Title Game
Local Man Rides Bike Across North America
BVB Launches 'Tourism Matters' Social Media Campaign
Adams' Meczywor Scores Winning Run for MCLA in Playoff Opener
Tourist Booth Volunteers Sought in North Adams
McCann Tech's Fuller Signs to Play Soccer at St. Rose
Cultural Pittsfield This Week: May 1-7

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (168)
Independent Investor (225)
Archives:
April 2015 (8)
March 2015 (6)
February 2015 (7)
January 2015 (9)
December 2014 (7)
November 2014 (4)
October 2014 (9)
September 2014 (5)
August 2014 (7)
July 2014 (2)
June 2014 (6)
May 2014 (8)
Tags:
Europe Banks Fed Recession Selloff Markets Interest Rates Election Debt Oil Debt Ceiling Federal Reserve Stock Market Jobs Retirement Stimulus Economy Europe Energy Greece Metals Bailout Taxes Stocks Currency Euro Rally Commodities Japan Deficit Fiscal Cliff Congress Crisis Housing Pullback
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
The Independent Investor: Does Another Trade Pact Make Sense?
@theMarket: Buy on the News
The Independent Investor: Should You Manage That 401(k)?
@theMarket: Right Back Into the Range
The Independent Investor: Brazil Not For the Faint of Heart
@theMarket: Earnings on Deck
@theMarket: Will the Second Quarter Be Like the First?
The Independent Investor: How to Teach Your Kid to Become the Next Warren Buffet
@theMarket: The Fed Does It Again
The Independent Investor: Financial Challenges Facing Single Parents


View All
Humane Race 2015
Runners and walkers unaccompanied by dogs participated in...
Community Day Of Service 2015
Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts students and...
SB: Drury at Pittsfield
Allie Hunt went 2-for-2 with a triple and a sacrifice fly...
SB: Mt Greylock at McCann
Miranda Voller went 5-for-5 with a pair of triples to lead...
Baseball: HV at Pittsfield
Nassif struck out seven and allowed no hits in a 19-0-...
Lacrosse: HV at Mt Greylock
Liam Chenail scored five goals and added an assist to lead...
SB: Wahconah at Taconic
Taylor Farley hit a triple for the Wachonah softball team...
Baseball: Westfield at...
Westfield won over Taconic 4-0 Monday afternoon.
Baseball: Drury at Lenox
Logan Rumbolt and Kirby Bryce led the Drury baseball team...
Baseball: Westfield Voc @...
The McCann Tech baseball team hit their way to a 8-0 win...
SB: Mt Everett @ Lenox
The final score was Mount Everett 15 and Lenox 3
Berkshire County Invitational...
The boys 4-by-800 meter relay, a 3200-meter battle that...
SB: Mt Greylock @ Drury
The Drury softball team earned its first win of the season...
Touch A Truck 2015
Little kids got to play with big trucks - and school buses,...
Baseball: PHS @ Taconic
Fick finished with two strikeouts while allowing six hits...
Lacrosse: Monument @...
Sean Baruch scored four goals to lead the Pittsfield boys...
Humane Race 2015
Runners and walkers unaccompanied by dogs participated in...
Community Day Of Service 2015
Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts students and...
SB: Drury at Pittsfield
Allie Hunt went 2-for-2 with a triple and a sacrifice fly...
SB: Mt Greylock at McCann
Miranda Voller went 5-for-5 with a pair of triples to lead...
Baseball: HV at Pittsfield
Nassif struck out seven and allowed no hits in a 19-0-...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved