Saturday, November 22, 2014 09:29am
North Adams, MA now: 21 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
@theMarket: June Swoon
By Bill Schmick On: 02:37PM / Friday June 13, 2014
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
0

This week the stock market was actually down three days in a row. It caught many investors off guard, but by the end of the week, traders were expecting the dip buyers to arrive. They did not disappoint.

As we approach the first days of summer, the stock market appears to be becoming more, rather than less, volatile.  The VIX, the volatility index, actually jumped a bit from its record lows as turmoil in Iraq and a subsequent spike in oil prices spooked the markets.

Earlier in the week, the World Bank also cut their economic forecast for 2014 global growth from 3.2% to 2.8%. And here in America, the election defeat of Eric Cantor in the Virginia Republican Primaries provided additional uncertainty for investors. Given the news, who could blame traders for taking a little off the table, especially at these record-high index levels?

So can we expect the markets to regain the losses suffered this week? It looks like we could see the S&P 500 Index hit the 1,950 level before all is said and done. Some think that could be the top but calling an end to this bull market has been a fool’s game. I would suggest there are better things to do.

On the economic front, there is plenty to be happy about. The deficit is improving dramatically, bank lending among the smaller, regional banks is surging and we are even seeing some improved lending from the larger banks as well.  

On the negative side, the rate of national debt is still growing, although at a reduced rate. So far, thanks to the extremely low interest on that debt, the servicing costs remain low but that will change as interest rates rise. It is a problem and one that needs to be addressed fairly soon.

Corporations are still hoarding cash. The money they do spend is being used to pay dividends or buy back their stock or someone else’s. As a result, merger and acquisition activity is at record highs. As this rate, it will soon become cheaper to build rather than buy additional capacity. And that will be a good thing for the nation’s health. Our stock of nonresidential equipment in this country is getting older and there is a widening gap between that stock and its rate of replacement.

When and if corporations decide that the future economic picture looks strong enough to risk building new plant and equipment, employment will rise and so will wages. That day is coming. We have recently witnessed the rise of a number of activist’s hedge fund managers who are urging corporate managements to either increase their capital expenditures or sell out to someone that will.  

So overall, the picture is brightening. If I look out over the longer term, I see more positives than negatives for the economy. All we need do is get through the next few months of uncertainty and stock market volatility. This month may be the beginning of that pullback I’ve been looking for. If it occurs, it shouldn’t last more than a month or two. All it requires is a little patience.

That’s not so bad, is it?

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.



0 Comments
     
News Headlines
Pittsfield Schools Grapple With Enrollment Drop
Williamstown-Lanesborough Tri-District Picks Interim Superintendent
Williams Volleyball Falls in NCAAs, Women's Basketball, Hockey Win
Mt. Greylock Announces First Quarter Honor Roll
Friends of St. Mary's Tour Endangered Pittsfield Church
Luma's and New Creperie May Open in North Adams
Adams Begins Interviews of Town Administrator Finalists
Cover for Retirement in Stages
Cultural Pittsfield This Week: Nov. 21-27
Northern Berkshire Santa Fund Kicks Off Annual Fund Drive

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (151)
Independent Investor (204)
Archives:
November 2014 (3)
November 2013 (3)
October 2014 (9)
September 2014 (5)
August 2014 (7)
July 2014 (2)
June 2014 (6)
May 2014 (9)
April 2014 (8)
March 2014 (6)
February 2014 (6)
January 2014 (8)
December 2013 (8)
Tags:
Taxes Deficit Fed Japan Bailout Commodities Markets Europe Debt Ceiling Oil Housing Debt Stimulus Currency Election Stocks Metals Europe Jobs Energy Euro Greece Crisis Stock Market Interest Rates Congress Banks Pullback Recession Economy Rally Fiscal Cliff Selloff Federal Reserve Retirement
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
The Independent Investor: The Pipeline Made Simple
@theMarket: Markets Are in Half Time
The Independent Investor: U.S. and China Square Off
The Independent Investor: Workers Get to Save More in 2015
@theMarket: All Clear
The Independent Investor: The Elephant in the Room
@theMarket: So far, So Good
The Independent Investor: OPEC's Oil Ploy
@theMarket: Are We There Yet?
The Independent Investor: Why Is This Recovery Different?


View All
St. Mary's Church Tour in...
Residents, business people, elected officials and Friends...
Williamstown's Mather House...
Traffic came to halt for several hours Wednesday morning as...
Girls Soccer: Nipmuc vs...
Although the Wahconah girls' season ended on Tuesday, its...
Boys Soccer: Belchertown vs...
Belchertown Downs Mount Greylock Boys in PKs
Football: Pittsfield vs...
Shade himself ended up taking it in from the 1 on third and...
Football: Turners Falls vs...
After completing the first-ever undefeated regular season...
Festival of Trees 2014
The Berkshire Museum kicked off its Festival of Trees...
Farmers' & Artisans' Harvest...
organic and handcrafted goods were sold at the special...
Football: Agawam vs Wahconah
The Wahconah football team was down eight points heading...
Girls Soccer: Granby vs...
Wahconah girls soccer over Granby, 1-0, for WMass Div. III...
Girls Soccer: Lee vs Gateway
The No.3 Lee Wildcats fell to No. 2 Gateway 4-0 Wednesday...
Girls Soccer: Sabis vs...
After coach Pat West called a timeout with 3 minutes, 19...
Hopkins Stops Lenox Boys in...
After getting through the rugged Berkshire County North...
Kershaw, Hirsch Lead Mount...
Down a goal midway through the first half of their Western...
Pittsfield Veterans Day 2014
Pittsfield observed Veterans Day with a parade and...
Hancock Veterans Day 2014
Hancock residents pay special tribute to Francis Lovejoy, a...
St. Mary's Church Tour in...
Residents, business people, elected officials and Friends...
Williamstown's Mather House...
Traffic came to halt for several hours Wednesday morning as...
Girls Soccer: Nipmuc vs...
Although the Wahconah girls' season ended on Tuesday, its...
Boys Soccer: Belchertown vs...
Belchertown Downs Mount Greylock Boys in PKs
Football: Pittsfield vs...
Shade himself ended up taking it in from the 1 on third and...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved