Sunday, July 05, 2015 07:17pm
North Adams, MA now: 75 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
LOG IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
By: Bill Schmick On: 04:56PM / Thursday December 16, 2010

U.S. Treasury bond interest rates are rising. Since August, the yield on the 30-year bond has risen over one percent, the 10-year is up 118 basis points and the five year is up 102 basis points. For those unfamiliar with the government bond market these are moves akin to the stock market rising 50 percent.

It wasn't supposed to happen this way. The Federal Reserve Bank's second quantitative easing (QEII) was meant to keep interest rates low, provide even more liquidity to the markets and, hopefully, convince banks to lend more to cash-strapped consumers — or so we thought. The opposite appears to be happening.

This is a positive development in my opinion. Here's why:

When an economy moves out of recession and into recovery, one of the first things that happens is interest rates begin to rise. This occurs for a variety of reasons. Investors, for example, are willing to take on more risk. During recessions (including this one) investors normally keep their money in safe investments such as U.S. Treasury bonds. As the data indicates that the economy is beginning to grow again (as it is now), investors sell their bonds and buy stocks as they take on more risk and look for higher rates of return.

Bondholders also worry about the potential for inflation as the economy heats up. There is a lot of historical evidence that inflation begins to rise as the economy grows. Bond prices usually decline and yields rise to compensate for that expected increase in inflation. The point is, that after months of worrying whether the economy will fall back into recession or simply bump along the bottom, this rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields is living proof that the economy is finally growing again and at a rate that convinces investors to sell their bonds and buy stocks.

Now not all bonds should be sold simply because interest rates on Treasury bonds are moving higher. Rising rates are actually a positive for a wide variety of bond investments such as corporate and high yield corporate bonds (called junk bonds). Many of these bonds actually do quite well. That's because with economic-growth investors are more confident that these corporate-bond issuers will be able to service their interest payments and actually pay off their debts. Investors actually see the price of these bond issues move higher.

There is also a supply and demand explanation for rising yields. During the last two years an enormous number of investors have fled to the safety of U.S. Treasuries. Suffering steep losses in the stock market because of the financial crisis, trillions of dollars were invested in Treasuries with no regard to the rate of return on these bonds. Now that the clouds are lifting and the coast is a bit clearer, these same investors are beginning to cash out of bonds. The problem is that everyone is heading for the exit door at the same time.

This year, when the rumors of a possible QE II started to surface, aggressive traders jumped into the Treasury markets with both feet. By the end of August, according to Greenwich & Associates, hedge funds accounted for 20 percent (versus 3 percent in 2009) of the daily trading volume in the $10 trillion U.S. Government Bond market. Following them in were armies of speculators, both here and abroad, all eager to "buy the rumor" of another monetary expansion by the Fed.

Now that QE II has occurred, we are experiencing a classic "sell on the news" exodus from that market at the same time that longer-term bond investors are also selling. This provides a simple explanation for the truly astounding 44.75 percent jump in yields that have occurred in just over two months.

Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or e-mail him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.



0 Comments
Tags: Treasuries, bonds      
News Headlines
Steinmann Pitches Pittsfield 13s Past North Adams
Great Barrington All-Stars Top Lanesborough Bulldogs
SteepleCats Blanked on July 4 Fireworks Night
Developing Story: FBI On Scene at Adams Residence
Fourth of July: The Declaration of Independence
Fourth of July Festivities Include Parades, Fireworks
Pittsfield 15s Impressive in Babe Ruth District Opener
Economic Development Commission Will 'Roll Out Slowly'
North Adams Youngster To Throw Out Friday's First Pitch at Fenway
Team Bianchi Wins Road Race Challenge

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (172)
Independent Investor (234)
Archives:
June 2015 (7)
May 2015 (6)
April 2015 (8)
March 2015 (6)
February 2015 (7)
January 2015 (9)
December 2014 (7)
November 2014 (4)
October 2014 (9)
September 2014 (5)
August 2014 (7)
July 2014 (2)
Tags:
Fed Banks Metals Crisis Selloff Rally Jobs Europe Greece Stock Market Retirement Congress Debt Currency Oil Debt Ceiling Election Pullback Interest Rates Markets Federal Reserve Economy Taxes Energy Bailout Fiscal Cliff Stocks Stimulus Housing Euro Deficit Recession Europe Japan Commodities
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
Recent Entries:
The Independent Investor: Tiny Houses Gain Appeal
@theMarket: From Russia With love
The Independent Investor: Robo-Advisers Have Landed
@theMarket: Don't Try to Trade This Market
The Independent Investor: Why Interest Rates Are Moving Higher
@theMarket: Too Hot or Too Cold
The Independent Investor: How to Run for President and Make a Fortune
The Independent Investor: Man's Most Expensive Friend
@theMarket: June Is Off the Table
The Independent Investor: Will Memorial Day Kick Off a Strong Summer?


Solid Sound Day Three
Solid Sound concluded Sunday with performances from the...
Solid Sound Day Two
Saturday's performances at Solid Sound included NRBQ,...
Solid Sound Day One
Solid Sound gates opened at 4:30 and concert goers enjoyed...
Colegrove Park School Tour
School and city officials toured the far-from-completion...
Down Street Art 2015 Kickoff
Down Street Art kicked off Thursday night with music, food,...
High School Softball All-Star...
High school softball players from throughout the county...
Bashevkin Farewell Party
Nearly 100 staff, friends, family and partners of the...
Little League Championship...
Hunter Sarkis and Logan Briggs Tuesday evening singled...
Candlelight Vigil for S.C....
More than 300 residents gathered at United Methodist Church...
Central/South Relay for Life...
Hundreds spent Friday night and Saturday morning walking...
'Amazing' Book Launch Party
Hundreds turned out for the release of Ty Allan Jackson's...
Third Thursday June 2015
Third Thursday in Pittsfield brought thousands to North...
Bruins Rally At Cheshire...
The Boston Bruins held a rally for Cheshire Elementary...
Pittsfield High Graduation...
Pittsfield High School held its graduation on Sunday at...
Taconic High Graduation 2015
Taconic High School held its graduation exercises on...
Lenox High Graduation 2015
Lenox Memorial High School presented diplomas to 64...
Solid Sound Day Three
Solid Sound concluded Sunday with performances from the...
Solid Sound Day Two
Saturday's performances at Solid Sound included NRBQ,...
Solid Sound Day One
Solid Sound gates opened at 4:30 and concert goers enjoyed...
Colegrove Park School Tour
School and city officials toured the far-from-completion...
Down Street Art 2015 Kickoff
Down Street Art kicked off Thursday night with music, food,...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings |
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2012 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved

Privacy Policy| User Agreement