Nobel Prize in Economics Awarded for Theory on Why Unemployment Remains So High

Allen Jezouit, @BerkshireCountyBusiness 06:28AM / Tuesday October 12, 2010

The WSJ reported today that three academic economists have been awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics for their research into the phenomenon of high unemployment even though there is a rise in job openings (Trio Share Economics Prize, WSJ, October 12, 2010). They hypothesized that high unemployment benefits which result in the unemployed spending more time looking is actually better for the economy because it means they find jobs which are a better fit for their skills.

Huh? That is probably the most counter-intuitive conclusion I've ever heard in my entire life. One has to wonder if they actually looked at any survey data of unemployed folks. Two data points are not statistically significant, but I know two people who were recently laid off who are eligible to collect the max in MA ($629/week) for something like 70 weeks. Neither have any plans to look for jobs for at least 6 months. One is an avid skier who is going to hit the slopes all winter before starting to look in the spring. The other is relocating to Texas and will start looking once they're settled. Both are looking at their unemployment benefits like an opportunity to take an extended paid vacation.

I've been doing some work trying to hire new staff for a local financial services firm. It is amazing to me how difficult it is to find qualified people who actually want to work these days. When people hear they are actually going to have to show some effort in order to earn a decent living (compensation is roughly 50% base, 50% commission with total compensation potential in the $60-$90k range), they are scared away. Part of my role is the initial telephone screening interview. I've had people tell me they've been unemployed for months who hear the job description and say, "Not interested." We had one kid take the job and quit after only 4 days. The employer couldn't be any more candid with people - telling them right up front, "Expect to work 45-50 hours per week, expect to dial the phone 50+ times per day if you are going to be successful." Kid quit after 4 ... FOUR ... days! He's got a finance degree from MCLA, graduated in May'09, and has been working retail part-time as a cashier ever since. What did he think he was going to get for his first finance job? CFO of a F500 company?

Don't get me wrong. I know how tough it is to have a job you hate. It sucks. It is so tough to get out of bed in the AM if you hate your job. However, if the alternative was going hungry and homeless, people wouldn't be so picky. As a society, we simply can't afford a system that allows people to be picky. We need a system that allows people to eke by for a few weeks until they can find a full-time job doing something that pays half way decent and a part time job that makes up the difference.

Things have changed. Look at home prices. We all wish we could sell our home for what we bought it for, but if you bought a home in 1999-2006, that probably won't happen for years to come. Ditto re: income and lifestyle. If you lost your job during the Great Recession, chances are you will struggle to find a single job that replaces or increases the income. You may need to add a second job in order to approach the same lifestyle. That's just reality.

Seems to me, there are jobs out there. It's the effort that's lacking.

Tags: unemployment, nobel prize

In for a Penny, in for a Pound

Allen Jezouit, @BerkshireCountyBusiness 08:00AM / Tuesday October 05, 2010

I bought a building this past week - 173 Water Street in Williamstown. Seven suites of offices located right across the street from the Cable Mills site. Given the economy, some would say that is quite a leap of faith. To me, it was a no-brainer.

The American economy is an incredibly sturdy mechanism. It has dealt with shocks like the past two years many times over the years. True, this particular recession is longer and deeper than most. Yet I am confident that a recovery is underway and that good times are indeed forthcoming.

We have plenty of reasons to be optimistic. We will hit incredibly difficult times periodically and each one of those eras teaches us something valuable. We learn how to be smarter and leaner in our businesses. We learn to pay attention, check our foundations and in some cases, make the wise and courageous choice to go do something else. Small business is an integral part of that sturdy mechanism and as American entrepreneurs, we just get better at rolling with the punches.

Survive and flourish ... sometimes it is just about survival, other times we have the opportunity to flourish. Knowing when and how to do both is the key. Get by when you have to, roll with the punches, and then make hay when the sun shines.

Know anyone who needs some office space?

Lucy Pavalock contributed to this blog posting.

Developers Tour comes to Pittsfield

Allen Jezouit, @BerkshireCountyBusiness 08:00AM / Tuesday September 28, 2010

Tammy Daniels story "Developers Tour Highlights Region's Assets" (iBerkshires, 9/22/2010) is worth the read. In a nutshell, a group of eastern MA developers and real estate professionals visited Pittsfield last week for the purpose of evaluating the region's potential. They spent 2 hours on a bus ride from Boston from listening to Pittsfield's Mayor Roberto make his pitch, they toured potential development sites, and they took part in a luncheon/panel discussion at the Colonial Theatre.

On the one hand, I'm thrilled to hear that organizations like the Berkshire Economic Development Council and MassDevelopment are working to bring commercial real estate developers to the region. Looking for ways to redevelop and utilize our legacy mill sites is important to our future. I was also happy to hear that the group felt we had strong regional banks, as banks are an important cog in the revitalization of any area.

On the other hand ...

1) A panel member named Maury Wolfe (a Boston architect) spoke of the region's "booming second home market" ... huh? There are over 100 houses on the market in Williamstown alone. Take a drive up and down Routes 7, 41, 20, etc. The only person making money on second homes (or any homes for that matter) these days is the person who makes realtor "for sale" signs.

2) According to the article, Mr. Wolfe also said, "... you really need permanent people, permanent home owners to develop job growth." Isn't that putting the cart before the horse? Don't we need to first create jobs in order to attract permanent residents?

3) Another panel member, Fred Kramer (president of a Boston Design firm), said, "Flexible permitting and zoning can be a major factor in getting any project off the ground." Well, if he's looking for flexible permitting and zoning, he's come to the wrong place. Over the past 50 years, we've created a county where our local governments make getting projects approved as difficult (or more so) than any place in the country.

4) Panel member Walter Upton (director of construction at the Boston Museum of Fine Arts) said that, "public/private partnerships, such as tax incentives, could spur private development." In my mind, this was in conflict with another panel member, Eden Milroy (president of developer/property manager Pilot Group), who said that school improvements were critical to growth. If we create jobs with tax incentives, where do the tax revenues come from to pay for improved schools?

Trust me, I'm much more of a "light a candle" than a "curse the darkness" sort of guy. I applaud the MassDev and BEDC efforts to market our area. We need to bring jobs here to stabilize our local economy.

Why does "Tea Party" have to equal "Right Wing" or "extremist"?

Allen Jezouit, @BerkshireCountyBusiness 08:00AM / Tuesday September 21, 2010

Incumbent US Senator Mike Castle's defeat in last Tuesday's primary by Tea Party candidate Christine O'Donnell has sent shock waves through the political world. According to the New York Times, the Democrat Party and the Obama administration are looking at ways to "cast the Republican party as all but taken over by Tea Party extremists" (NY Times, Sunday, September 19, 2010). The Times went so far as to call O'Donnell an "insurgent", a term that seems more suited to a mujaheddin rebel in Iraq or Afghanistan than a US politician.

So, why does "Tea Party" have to equal "right wing" or "extremist"? Why can't it mean "independent thinking" or "sick to death of the crooks in both parties"? After all, it is entirely possible for people to be middle of the road on issues like gay marriage, abortion, and legalization of marijuana while being strong advocates of tighter borders, reduced government spending, and reduced taxation. Seems to me that many people I speak to in Berkshire County - 75% plus of whom are Democrats - fall into this category, yet most would never attend a Tea Party rally or vote for a Tea Party candidate.

Let's face facts. It was only a matter of time before the rampant corruption in both parties and the complete lack of fiscal restraint got us to this place in our history. The US Government has been spending money like a drunken sailor since the 1930's. I recently read some stats - and I'm paraphrasing here - that from 1980 to 2010 our national debt as a percentage of GDP grew from 25% of GDP to 125% of GDP. What an incredible lack of restraint! Both parties are to blame, but we are ultimately to blame for continuing to elect them.

I hope the Tea Party can continue to distance themselves from the kooks in both parties, but especially those on the extreme right wing. Those folks are just as dangerous as the extreme left wingers are. The elections in November do NOT need to be about religious issues. We need fiscal prudence, period.

On Saturday I was driving into the office and Dave Ramsey was on 810AM. A woman called in from Iowa. Early 50's, her and her husband had decent jobs, but they had under $100k in their retirement accounts. She wanted to retire at 62. Dave told her to plan on 72. She said, "But, we really want to retire at 62." And, Dave said, "Be realistic. You can't. Wishing won't make it so." He ran the numbers and by 62 they would have about $150k in the bank and would still owe on their home. At 72, they would have $600k in the bank and their home would be paid off. "The facts are what the facts are," Dave told her.

That's exactly the type of leadership the country needs. A group of people who recognize the facts are what the facts are and start doing something about it. Those are the type of people we need to elect, regardless of their political affiliation or in spite of it. I say that makes me an independent. If you say that makes me a Tea Party guy, so be it. I'm not worried about labels. I'm worried about actions. I'm worried about results. I'm worried about our nation's future.

All Fired Up

Allen Jezouit, @BerkshireCountyBusiness 08:00AM / Tuesday September 14, 2010

So, I'm a huge funk fan ... from jazz/funk to R&B/soul, from Jamiroquai to Bill Withers, Karl Denson's Tiny Universe, Steely Dan, whatever ... I just loves me some funk! One of my favorite tunes is All Fired Up by a band called The Brand New Heavies. Fitting, because I'm "all fired up" about one thing in particular these days.

My involvement with the Williamstown Chamber of Commerce along with some of the great clients our firm is fortunate to do business with puts me in touch with some top echelon business people here in Berkshire County, especially the northern end of it. During discussions over the past few weeks, it seems like many people who heretofore had been relatively silent - at least publicly - about the county's economic future are getting fired up themselves. I think 2011 will see the formation of a grassroots organization with top business leadership focused on reversing some unsustainable trends locally, including the 4% drop in population over the past decade. The group will focus on private sector jobs creation using private sector funding.

Simultaneous to that, what needs to happen locally is we need to make our cities and towns more friendly to businesses. This is a generational movement and will occur glacially at best, but we need to start taking steps today or we are going to continue down the slippery slope we are already on. Taxes, regulations, zoning, etc. are a heavy burden on businesses here. We need to see a sea change in memberships of planning boards, conservation commissions, sign commissions, etc. We need more business-friendly selectmen and town managers. I'm not talking about favoring one party over another, and I'm certainly not talking about doing away with all of our green space and going back to an environment where local industries are dumping PCB's in the rivers. I'm talking about electing and appointing people who understand that businesses need the ball-and-chain removed so they can grow. Because when businesses grow, jobs are created. When jobs are created, we aren't going to have >100 homes on the market in Williamstown (for example) for very long.

We can't just sit around and wait for Williams College, MCLA, and the state and federal governments to start hiring. We also need to realize that an economy based solely on tourism, cultural venues, and non-profits is not sustainable. Private sector job creation in primary industries like manufacturing, software development, and banking is a must. Our future depends upon it. Are you with me?

Page 2 of 3

Nobel Prize in Economics Awarded for Theory on Why Unemployment Remains So High

In for a Penny, in for a Pound

Developers Tour comes to Pittsfield

Why does "Tea Party" have to equal "Right Wing" or "extremist"?

All Fired Up

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