Here we are, the last week of the regular season (And on the verge of a new year). It seems like just yesterday that the summer sun was blazing, Randy Moss was bitching about his contract, the Cowboys were Super Bowl favorites and the Patriots were embarking on a “bridge season.”

Oh, so much can change in just a few months. It’s been an exciting NFL season, and it should be a thrilling postseason. Let’s take a glance at the last 16 weeks, shall we?

Top 5 Surprises

1. Kansas City – If you had asked me before the season which division champion was a virtual lock, I wouldn’t have hesitated. San Diego in the West, without a doubt.  Matt Cassel and the upstart Chiefs made a statement in Week 1, shocking the Chargers on a rainy Monday night in Missouri. Most fans – including myself – called it a fluke. San Diego got off to a horrid 2-5 start, but everyone and their dog knew that the Bolts would turn it around and sneak into the postseason. But the Chiefs – chock full of former Pats - had other plans.

2. Chicago – Green Bay and Minnesota were the clear-cut frontrunners for the NFC North title. Yet here are the Bears, with a chance for the top seed in the NFC.

3. New England – Most people expected the Pats to contend for a playoff spot, but I clearly remember some so-called “experts” predicting an 8-8 or 9-7 “rebuilding” campaign for Belichick’s bunch. But unlike last year, the Pats won the games against the good teams: Colts, Steelers, Ravens, etc. And, they’ve won on the road, which they weren’t able to do last year. The big turning point (in my opinion) was the road blowout over the Dolphins in Week 4 on Monday Night Football. The Pats proved they could rely on their defense and special teams to win a game, plus it also happened to be Randy Moss’ last as a Patriot. I believe I predicted them to be 11-5 before the season (and even that was blind optimism from a homer’s perspective), but I would have never expected 13-2 and the best record in football.

4. St. Louis – Coming off a 1-15 season, the Rams are one win from a division championship. Granted, the NFC West is a joke, and an argument could be made that there are three or four other teams in the conference who deserve a playoff spot over the Rams. We all knew the West was going to be weak, but the Rams are the last of the four teams I expected to be leading the pack.

5. Tampa Bay – Playing for a playoff spot in the final week of the season. Didn’t see that one coming. Many people may have the Bucs higher up on the list, but look at the teams they beat: Not one had a winning record. But it is the NFL, and all but two or three teams are capable of winning on any given Sunday. So the fact that Tampa could finish 10-6 makes them deserving of the top 5.

Honorable mentions: Atlanta, Philadelphia and Oakland.

Top 5 Disappointments

1. Dallas – They lost their starting QB in Week 7, but things weren’t looking good even with Romo. The team had one win when the Giants ended Romo’s season. With Dallas hosting Super Bowl XLV, a lot of people picked the Cowboys to be the first team to play on its home turf while vying for the Lombardi Trophy. After a 1-7 start, Wade Phillips was canned and the Cowboys were the laughing stock of the league. The Boys have been MUCH better since Jason Garrett took the reins, but they are still going to finish (at best) with a share of last place in the NFC East.

2. San Diego – Three out of the five teams on this list fired their coach during the season. I’m not sure if Norv Turner will lose his job, but he should. San Diego was plagued with injuries, but that is not an acceptable excuse for an 8-7 record. If you saw how the Bolts manhandled the Colts at Indy, you saw this team’s potential. When a team doesn’t live up to its potential, you’ve got to look at the coaching staff.

3. Minnesota – What a mess. Coach fired, the Favre saga (on and off the field), the Moss debacle and the stadium caved in (literally). Vikings fans have reason to be optimistic following their win over Philly on Tuesday, but 2010 has been a huge bust overall.

4. Cincinnati – From division champions in 2009 to one of the worst teams in the league in 2010. Marvin Lewis’ job is in jeopardy, which seems a little unfair. When you pair up two of the biggest egomaniacs in the league, how do you expect this team to stay focused and compete in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. I certainly wasn’t expecting the Bengals to make the playoffs, but I expected better than 4-11.

5. San Francisco – I thought this was going to be a breakout year for the 49ers, and I wasn’t alone. They had a tough schedule (Saints, Chiefs, Falcons and Eagles in Weeks 2 through 5), so I think Mike Singletary is sort of the scapegoat in a year with unrealistic expectations. But in the NFC West, the Niners should have done better. They need a quarterback.

Honorable Mentions: Miami, Tennessee and N.Y. Jets.

Week 17 Picks

MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND: Pick – Patriots

BUFFALO AT N.Y. JETS: Pick – Bills

CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE: Pick – Ravens

PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND: Pick – Browns

TAMPA BAY AT NEW ORLEANS: Pick – Saints

CAROLINA AT ATLANTA: Pick – Falcons

MINNESOTA AT DETROIT: Pick – Lions

OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY: Pick – Raiders

JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON: Pick – Texans

ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO: Pick – Cardinals

SAN DIEGO AT DENVER: Pick – Broncos

CHICAGO AT GREEN BAY: Pick – Packers

N.Y. GIANTS AT WASHINGTON: Pick – Giants

DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA: Pick – Cowboys

TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: Pick – Colts

ST. LOUIS AT SEATTLE: Pick - Rams

Last week: 9-7

Season record: 145-94

With each week that passes, Rex Ryan creeps closer to Derek Jeter status. He’s the guy I want to hate – because of his affiliation with a New York team – but he makes it very difficult not to like him.

As a Patriots fan, Ryan is a cocky, loud-mouth loser. As an objective football fan, Ryan is entertaining as hell. He’s honest, confident and a great motivator. And, as we are learning with the recent foot fetish videos, he’s just another guy with a few quirks.

Bill Belichick is the best coach in football, without a doubt.  As a Patriots fan, he’s brilliant, cerebral and he handles his media obligations better than anyone in sports. But as an objective football fan, he’s booooooooorring. He’s the anti-Rex Ryan. In sports, we want to see the human side to these coaches and players. We want to see their personalities – their weaknesses, their superstitions, the type of stuff that can help us relate to them (even though they are millionaires and most of us are not).

It’s similar to how people obsess over movie stars. They live a glamorous life, but how are they like us? Who’s in rehab, who’s getting divorced, etc.? It’s a sick way of living – vicariously through other people we don’t know – but it’s the way of the world. Belichick will never let us relate to him because he’s a smart football coach. ALL of his comments and actions – at least in the public eye - relate to his football team. Ryan, on the other hand, is a guy who isn’t afraid to let his guard down and wear his emotions on his sleeve.

Foot fetish? I don’t get it. Some people can relate to it, I’m sure. I don’t. But we all have some quirks, especially when it comes to relationships. It’s what makes us human.

So, I will continue to root for Belichik and his Patriots, and I’ll continue to despise Rex Ryan’s Jets. But if I had to choose the coach I would rather hang out with, or who I could most identify with, it would be the guy leading the New York team.

Before I get to the picks, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone!

DALLAS AT ARIZONA: Pick – Cowboys

NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO: Pick – Patriots

N.Y. JETS AT CHICAGO: Pick – Bears

BALTIMORE AT CLEVELAND: Pick – Browns

TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY: Pick – Chiefs

SAN FRANCISCO AT ST. LOUIS: Pick – 49ers

DETROIT AT MIAMI: Pick – Dolphins

WASHINGTON AT JACKSONVILLE: Pick – Redskins

INDIANAPOLIS AT OAKLAND: Pick - Colts

HOUSTON AT DENVER: Pick – Texans

SAN DIEGO AT CINCINNATI: Pick – Chargers

N.Y. GIANTS AT GREEN BAY: Pick – Packers

SEATTLE AT TAMPA BAY: Pick – Buccaneers

MINNESOTA AT PHILADELPHIA: Pick – Eagles

NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA: Pick - Saints

Last week: 8-7

Thursday night: 1-0

Season Record: 137-87

THURSDAY GAME: I almost forgot about the Thursday night game again this week. Oh, the holidays. I'm picking the Steelers over the Panthers. Daring, I know.

So, I forgot to make my prediction for Thursday night’s game. Oops. Not a big deal, but it could hurt me in a very important bet I have going with my brother. Let me explain. A few weeks into the season, he told me he was in a “Pick Em” league. Considering that I have been making picks here on iBerkshires.com, I thought it would be fun to make a friendly wager. No money. No steak dinner. No crazy haircut for the loser.

Instead, we agreed that whoever has the least amount of wins at the end of the regular season must have their face painted on Super Bowl Sunday, and socialize the ENTIRE day under that particular guise.  The winner - who picks the most games correctly – gets to select what will be painted on the loser’s mug. We have a buddy who is a phenomenal artist, so he can pretty much paint whatever we ask. For most of the season, I’ve held a four or five game edge over my brother, but he has slowly but surely crept back into the race during the last couple weeks.

So, by missing Thursday night’s game, I let him pull one game closer (because he picked the Chargers). Could hurt me in the end, but we shall see. By the way… if I do hold on and win the bet, my brother is getting the entire cast of Full House painted on his face. And I’m going to make sure we’re watching the big game at a venue with LOTS of people, so he has to explain to people why Bob Saget and John Stamos are on his face.

BUFFALO AT MIAMI: The Dolphins are still in the playoff picture, but they’ll have to win their final three and hope the Jets lose out. It’s unlikely, but certainly conceivable. Jets have Pittsburgh and Chicago on the road, then home against Buffalo. Miami has Bills, Lions then the Patriots, who may be resting their starters in Week 17 if they already have the top seed wrapped up. PICK: DOLPHINS

ARIZONA AT CAROLINA: May be the most uninteresting game of the 2010 football season. PICK: CARDINALS

NEW ORLEANS AT BALTIMORE: This game is a biggie. Although both clubs are in pretty good shape to make the postseason, a win will keep one team in the race for a division title, which would result in an all-important home game. Although it’s unlikely the Falcons or Steelers cough up their leads, the winners from the AFC North and NFC South are likely to have a first-round bye. So, while this game won’t likely ruin either team’s playoff hopes, it could prove pivotal for seeding. Pick: SAINTS

DETROIT AT TAMPA BAY: A Tampa Bay victory and a Giants win over Philly gives Tampa Bay the sixth seed. Of course, the Bucs still have to face the Saints in Week 17. But a win over the three-win Lions at least keeps Tampa Bay in the picture. PICK: BUCS

PHILADELPHIA AT N.Y. GIANTS: This one will likely decide the NFC East. Philly is fun to watch. They’ve got some playmakers. The Giants are sort of a forgotten team in the NFC, which means nothing in that conference. It’s the team that flies under the radar that has made it to the Super Bowl the last few years, with last year’s Saints an exception. Before that, it was Cards, Giants, Bears, Seahawks. The Giants may not win the NFC East, but don’t be surprised if they make some noise in the playoffs….if they get in. PICK: EAGLES

JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS:  The Jaguars are gaining steam as the sleeper pick in the AFC. I still don’t think they’ll win the division. PICK: Colts

KANSAS CITY AT ST. LOUIS: As much as I would love to see KC win the AFC West over the Jekyll and Hyde Chargers, I won’t believe it until I see it. Hard to believe that Rams-Chiefs in Week 15 is a battle of two teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today. PICK: RAMS

WASHINGTON AT DALLAS: The Donovan McNabb situation is really strange. I understand what Coach Shanahan is doing. If the quarterback isn’t getting it done, then go with a player that gives you a better chance – in most cases. But Grossman doesn’t give you a better chance than McNabb. My guess is that Donovan is banged up and there’s no sense in risking future injury when the Skins are out of the postseason race. PICK: COWBOYS

 CLEVELAND AT CINCINNATI: Who, out of the state of Ohio, gives a crap? PICK: BENGALS

 HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE: I caught the last quarter of Monday night’s Baltimore-Houston game, and I was thoroughly entertained. The Texans’ offense was fun to watch. Just a really exciting finish and a glimpse of what the Texans can be. But, again, Houston  looked like a team that doesn’t know how to close out games. Winning just isn’t part of the Texans’ culture yet. PICK: TEXANS

ATLANTA AT SEATTLE: Falcons vs. Saints next week on MNF will become a whole lot bigger if the Seahawks can pull off the upset this Sunday. Doubtful. PICK: FALCONS

N.Y. JETS AT PITTSBURGH: Love it. Jets have imploded the last two weeks. Not surprising, though. They barely squeaked by teams with losing records, so why would they beat teams with winning records? PICK: STEELERS

DENVER AT OAKLAND: Raiders will pick up the season sweep over their rivals. That’s going to sting in Denver. PICK: RAIDERS

GREEN BAY AT NEW ENGLAND: I really liked the Pats’ chances even if Aaron Rodgers did start for Green Bay. Could snow, too. Perfect. PICK: PATRIOTS

CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA: The University of Minnesota will host a nationally televised game featuring third-string quarterback Joe Webb starting for the hosts. ESPN must be thrilled (SARCASM). The broadcasting team will still find a way to talk about Favre for most of the game. So, I just won’t watch. PICK: BEARS

Last week: 9-7

Season Record: 128-80

Week 14

CLEVELAND AT BUFFALO: Pick – Browns

GREEN BAY AT DETROIT: Pick – Packers

N.Y. GIANTS AT MINNESOTA: Pick – Vikings

CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH: Pick – Steelers

OAKLAND AT JACKSONVILLE: Pick – Jaguars

ATLANTA AT CAROLINA: Pick - Falcons

TAMPA BAY AT WASHINGTON: Pick – Redskins

ST. LOUIS AT NEW ORLEANS: Pick – Saints

SEATTLE AT SAN FRANCISCO: Pick – 49ers

NEW ENGLAND AT CHICAGO: Pick – Patriots

MIAMI AT N.Y. JETS: Pick – Jets

DENVER AT ARIZONA: Pick – Broncos

KANSAS CITY AT SAN DIEGO: Pick – Chargers

PHILADELPHIA AT DALLAS: Pick – Eagles

BALTIMORE AT HOUSTON: Pick – Ravens

Last Week: 12-4

Thursday’s Game: 0-1

Season Record: 119-73

Thursday 12/9: Needed a reminder that Boston is still a baseball town? The Patriots are riding high following one of their biggest regular season wins in team history, the Celtics are rolling along as one of the elite teams in basketball and the Bruins are certainly in the discussion when talking about championship contenders in hockey..... but this week, the Red Sox are stealing the headlines. Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford have joined a team that looked pretty damn good (in my opinion) to begin with. I've been saying this for about six or seven consecutive years, but it certainly applies this week: It's a great time to be a Boston sports fan.

As for the NFL pick, I'm going with Tennessee over Indy. The Colts have lost three in a row, while the Titans haven't won a game since October 24. Indy seems like a logical pick because it's hard to imagine Peyton Manning losing four straight. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I'm picking the Titans to pull off the big upset.

...

To all of the NFL geeks out there, do you have a couple hours to waste? Head over and play with ESPN’s Playoff Machine. So much fun.  If you haven’t heard of it, basically it allows you to predict winners for the rest of the regular season, and it shows you how the postseason would shape up based on your picks.

The other day, I plugged in my predictions and this is how it turned out: 

AFC

Byes: Patriots, Ravens

First round: N.Y. Jets at San Diego; Pittsburgh at Indianapolis

NFC

Byes: Atlanta, Green Bay

First round: Chicago at Philadelphia; New Orleans at St. Louis

I was so intrigued by this innovation that I asked my brother and my dad to make their game-by-game picks, just to see what playoff matchups they came up with. If my dad’s picks are accurate, he has a 6-10 San Francisco 49ers team hosting a first-round playoff game. It’s scary, but that is actually conceivable. Could you imagine the outrage in cities like New York or Philadelphia if their teams didn’t make the cut with 9 or 10 wins, yet a 6-win team from the NFC West had a home game?

I’m pretty sure fans and media analysts would strongly urge the league to change their playoff format, which would create quite a predicament. It would seem odd to have a division winner not make the playoffs, but at the same time, there should never be a situation where a team under .500 makes it, let alone hosts a game. Should be interesting to see how it plays out.

Before I get to the Week 13 predictions, one more tidbit about just how big Monday night’s game is for the Patriots. According to the Playoff Machine, if the Pats beat the Jets, they’d be in really good shape for the top seed in the conference. Even if the Jets were to win their last four and finish 13-3, the Pats could afford to lose one game against either the Bears or Packers, and finish 13-3 and lock up home field throughout the playoffs. However, losses to Miami or Buffalo would hurt them because of the division tiebreaker.

Assuming (which I shouldn’t do) that the Pats and Jets each finish 5-1 in the division and with identical conference records, New England would edge the Jets in the next tiebreakers: record vs. common opponents (because the Pats beat Baltimore, Jets did not); and strength of victory (Pats beat teams like Indy, San Diego…Jets beat Cleveland, Denver).

Anyways, all of this means nothing if the Pats can’t win on Monday night. They wouldn’t be out of the running for the top seed, considering the Jets still have to play at Chicago and Pittsburgh, but they wouldn’t control their own destine. So, just in case you weren’t aware, Monday night’s game is HUGE!

On to the picks ...

NEW ORLEANS AT CINCINNATI: Saints

CHICAGO AT DETROIT: Bears

SAN FRANCISCO AT GREEN BAY: Packers

JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE: Titans

DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: Chiefs

CLEVELAND AT MIAMI: Browns

BUFFALO AT MINNESOTA: Vikings

WASHINGTON AT N.Y. GIANTS: Giants

OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO: Chargers

CAROLINA AT SEATTLE: Seahawks

ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY: Falcons

ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: Rams

DALLAS AT INDIANAPOLIS: Colts

PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE: Ravens

N.Y. JETS AT NEW ENGLAND: Patriots

Last week: 8-8

Thursday night: 1-0

Season Record: 108-69