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@theMarket: Stocks Bump & Grind Toward Christmas

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires Columnist

No surprise that stocks took a break this week. Profit-taking from the election rally has been the main theme over the last few days for investors and could continue through the New Year.

As traders desert their desks for holiday shopping (present company included), volumes have petered out as world markets experience a consolidation. Remember readers that markets can correct in two ways: a sharp sell-off or this kind of sideways movement.

Frankly, give me a good old consolidation anytime. They may be boring, but sharp declines, especially around the holidays, makes for unhappy investors and can ruin the office Christmas party. I am actually relieved that we have had the Santa rally a little earlier this year.

Over the last two weeks I warned investors not to chase the Trump rally. Greed has given way to common sense and another week or two of consolidation might relieve a large part of what I see as "overbought" conditions.

This week, U.S. investors did receive some good news. The economy actually grew by 3.5 percent, which was the fastest rate of growth in over two years. The third-quarter results were fueled by strong consumer spending, higher food exports, and a revival of investment spending.

Of course, the Obama Administration will get no credit for the facts that unemployment is at historical low levels, GDP growth is finally revving up and wage growth is starting to climb.

The new administration will take credit for this revival in investor's minds. The same thing happened in reverse when President Obama took office eight years ago.

George W. Bush left the Democrats with an economy in shambles, a financial crisis that rivaled the crash of 1929, and ultimately an unemployment rate north of 10 percent. Naturally, investors blamed the new guy for the old guy's mistakes. Well, nothing is fair in politics.

The reason I am bringing this up, however, is to ask the question -- how much of the "Trump rally"  should be attributed to the Donald's election and how much is simply a reflection of a turn in the economy that has been going on for the past few months?

Why, you might ask, is this important? Most pundits are crediting last month's market gains to Trump's elections. What if the gains were simply a celebration of a new-found strength in the nation's economy? It would make the levels in the stock market reasonable, especially if investors expect more good news in the future.

Of course, the future is a lot less predictable now than it has been in the past. We still have no idea how many of the president-elect's initiatives are going to bear fruit. In the meantime, the markets are being supported by the existing strength in the economy and a new-found "animal spirit" based on Trump's campaign promises.

But there are a lot of questions in my mind concerning some of those promises. Let's take the tax cuts that just about everyone is convinced are just around the corner. Tax cuts to investors, by definition are positive. But will corporations benefit from a 15 percent tax rate or a 20 percent rate? The difference is substantial, and exactly what will the fine print mean for various sectors?

What sectors will gain the most or will every corporation benefit equally? Will capital gains taxes be cut as well, and if so, by how much? Throw questions about the estate tax, individual income taxes and changes in both corporate and individual tax deductions (like mortgage deductions) into the mix and you may have some unexpected surprises. No one knows.

Then there is all this talk about a huge infrastructure program. Metals and mining stocks as well as cement, copper, steel, and God knows what else have doubled or tripled in the expectation that all these materials companies will benefit from trillions of dollars in government spending. Re-building the nation's highways, hospitals, schools, bridges, airports, electrical grids, etc., were certainly part of Trump's campaign promises, but the timing and method of spending is open to question.

Trump has said in a post-election New York Times interview that infrastructure spending won't be a core part of the first few years of his administration. He also admitted that a New Deal-type program would not sit well with the traditional Republican ethos. That's not to say he won't fulfill his commitment, but it might be so far in the future than the present prices of material stocks justify.

What we do know is that the new president will be unorthodox in his approach to many of the nation's problems. He may very well cut corporate tax rates and at the same time take steps to eliminate corporate cronyism. He may get his infrastructure plan, but convince the private sector to foot the bill, instead of government. He has already showed his penchant for deal making via Twitter.

The point is that the best may lie ahead of us, but attempting to discount the future without the facts is dangerous at best. Fortunately, the growing strength of our economy has less to do with Trump, I believe, and more to do with the policies of the past, especially those of the Federal Reserve Bank. To me, the future looks promising under a new set of Trump initiatives and should be reflected in higher levels in the stock market going forward. I would use any pullbacks in the months ahead as buying opportunities.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

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@theMarket: Has Santa Claus Come & Gone?

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires Columnist

The rally continued in the stock market as investors abandoned bonds and bought stocks hand over fist. Many think the best is yet to come, since the traditional end-of-year Santa Claus rally is still ahead of us.

However, between now and then, we have the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next Wednesday. The bond market is betting on the following: that the Fed Funds rate is raised by one quarter of one percent, and the FOMC meeting minutes indicate that the Fed may raise rates two more times in 2017. Anything more than that would be hawkish and most likely cause the stock market to correct. That happened last year and cut short the Santa rally.

If the Fed's actions, on the other hand, are in-line with expectations (or even more dovish) the chances are stocks will continue to rally and so will bonds. Although most investors focus almost entirely on the stock market, which has soared since the election, few realize the devastation that is occurring in the bond market.

I have continually warned bond holders that someday they would face Armageddon. It seems to be happening now. During the past three weeks, investors sold over $2.7 trillion worth of bonds. Almost a like amount of money has found its way into the stock market. But I suspect bonds are due for a relief rally fairly soon.

Aside from the upcoming Fed event, one must also look at the nature of the Santa Claus rally. Usually, investors sell stocks during the first two weeks of the month. It's called "tax-loss selling" where investors establish capital losses to offset gains that they may have booked during the year. This usually depresses stock prices across the board. After the selling abates, investors then buy back stocks during the last two weeks and into January of the following year.

This year, however, that has not occurred and with a good reason. Investors expect that under the Trump administration, the capital gains tax will be lowered giving them an incentive to hold on to their stocks until 2017. Given that behavior, stocks might be getting bid up now only to see disappointment in the last two weeks of the year.

The S&P 500 Index has already exceeded my target for the year (2,240). It is now 10 points higher at 2,250, which is a nice round number. There are some traders who believe that we can climb even higher. Some say the Dow could reach 20,000 (another round number) before the end of the year. Certainly, since we are only a few hundred points from that mark, there is nothing stopping investors from chasing stocks higher.

To me that's pure gravy.  I had been expecting a mid-single digit return for the market and year-to-date we have gained a little over 6 percent. Close enough for government work. So what to do between now and the end of the year?

Sit tight and enjoy the fireworks. In the very short term anything can happen.  If we don't have a pullback in December, chances are we will have one in January, but not to worry. I expect that the stocks will continue to have an upward bias at least through the first 100 days of Trump's reign.
 

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

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Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



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