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@theMarket: Patience Is A Virtue
"So was that the pullback you were looking for?""Let's say it was the beginning of one," I answered.
"So how much longer am I supposed to wait? I've got tons of cash and it's not earning me anything."
Sometimes the hardest thing in the world is to do nothing. This appears to be one of those times. Yes, we did pull back over 1 percent earlier in the week in all three averages but the downside was short lived and the markets regained all they had lost by the end of the week. We can thank world governments for that performance.
The EU and its central bank successfully concluded the renegotiation of Greek debt. Just over 80 percent of Greek bond holders "volunteered" to exchange their old bonds for new ones that are worth less than half the value. For all intents and purposes this amounts to a massive bond default by the Greek government, but that's not how it is playing out.
When governments are involved, what normally would have become a default becomes something else. In this case it becomes a "restructuring" and not an embarrassing default. The markets rallied, bidding up European stock markets at the news. They ignored comments from the head of the European Central bank who said that further interest rate cuts and other stimulus measures are at an end. At the same time, the fact that Europe is also entering a recession seemed to be unimportant.
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve added to the cheer by planting a story in The Wall Street Journal. The gist of the article was that the Fed is considering a new kind of bond purchase that would boost the economy further but would be designed to reduce the inflationary impact of such purchases. The economic term for this is "sterilization" and just the mention of additional easing had investors buying back stocks. As I explained last week, the entire move up in the markets since October has been based on central banks flooding world markets with more and more money. This is like offering investors a huge punchbowl with all you can drink right now. Nothing else matters right now and like those who indulge too often and too much there will be a price to be paid down the road.
As I pointed out to a client this week, the markets did recover on all this good news but are still at about the same level they were when I suggested lightening up on your most aggressive equity holdings. Actually, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was around 13,000 at the time and it is now trading lower than that.
The S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ are where they were on March 1. Gold and silver have been losing trades for the last few weeks as well. But don't get me wrong; I'm not bearish, just cautious in the short term. I expect a choppy market at best and in that kind of environment it pays to wait it out.
Many investors believe the sidelines are an unacceptable position in today's markets. Granted, sitting in cash at money market rates yielding next to nothing is akin to watching grass grow in the middle of winter. The point I would make is that sitting in cash is not about making money. It is about not losing money and that can be a smart move sometimes.
I have no crystal ball that tells me this period of caution will only last a week or two or drag on for a longer period of time. I'm guessing it will be shorter than longer so I'm willing to keep the cash and forego investing it in bonds or something else that provides a greater yield. Part of that decision is based on tax considerations and trading costs. However, those may not be important considerations to you. I can only council patience; the rest is up to you.
Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or email him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.
The Independent Investor: Child Labor: An American Tradition
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The words "child labor" evokes visions in our minds of wretched children working in filthy factories or dangerous coal mines with little to eat and even less compensation. The universally accepted definition of child labor is the "employment of children in regular and sustained labor." Most countries ban that kind of child labor, but what about other forms of labor?
I had my first paper route at 11 years old. By the following year I was also delivering Sunday papers, waking up at 4 a.m. and working until noon. By my 14th birthday, I was working at Duff's, my neighborhood drug store in Philadelphia, serving soda and making change for the neighborhood after school. During the summers, I worked even harder: cutting lawns, bagging in supermarkets and even hauling hot roofing tar up two stories on occasion. I always had money, was rarely bored, made OK grades in school and received a fabulous education that I could have never obtained in school.
In the U.S., you can legally get a job at 14 as long as you work no more than three hours a day (18 hours a week during the school year or past 7 p.m.). Youths of any age can deliver newspapers, perform in radio, television, movie or theatrical productions; and baby sit or perform other minor duties around a private home. In the agricultural sector, kids can work as young as 12 years old during non-school periods. But by the age of 16, America's youth can work without restrictions or parent's consent.
In this country, there is a long tradition of kids like me, dating back to the last century. The jobs of our youth often teach us skills that are with us our whole lives. Some of the things I learned were simple things like filling out applications and more complicated skills like interviewing, working responsibly and how to get along with co-workers and, of course, the boss. Since my father started his underage work life in the coal mines near Altoona, Pa., (until he was trapped in a cave-in), my early working career seemed comparatively easy.
My daughter, Jackie, followed in the family footsteps, first as a snowboard instructor at 13 years old (almost 14). She was the snowboard director by the age of 17, managing almost 50 instructors on the weekends at a local ski slope. She credits her early work experience for giving her confidence and independence, an MVP status among her high school peers and a developed sense of responsibility that continues to this day as a new mother and as an executive at a international public relations company.
Like me, her work life kept her on the straight and narrow in school, away from parties, drugs and poor grades. She also learned the meaning of money and had enough income to pay for her own auto insurance when she learned to drive.
Now, granted, this is all anecdotal evidence. Research indicates that those teenagers who work more than 10 to 15 hours a week do receive lower grades. Many also sacrifice extracurricular activities and friendships they would have otherwise made if they weren't working as hard.
Some teens, their pockets flush with cash, have the means to experiment with drugs and alcohol, which many obtain from older co-workers. Finally, there are many cases where overworked teens spend a lot less time with their families, eating and exercising less than those kids without onerous work schedules.
Many teens' first jobs are in the retail sector such as fast food outlets, restaurants and grocery stores. Often these entry-level jobs are routine, boring and lack positive interaction with adults. It can be tough on a young person, and that's where you can add value as a parent. Encouragement, a sympathetic ear and a little compassion can go along way to help your child through that first rough year or so.
I also advise you to monitor your child's progress. Don't simply take "OK" as an answer for how work is going. And if you don't like the thought of after-school work for your teenager, summer employment is an excellent alternative.
If for some reason your kid doesn't need to earn money, there are always non-profit alternatives to choose from, like selling Girl Scout cookies or fundraising for the Boy Scouts of America or any number of charitable organizations desperate for additional help.
The point is that child labor, American-style, is a major positive in my opinion as long as it is accomplished within the guidelines above.
Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or email him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.
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