@theMarket: Do I Smell a Rally?

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires Columnist
09:40AM / Saturday, December 06, 2008

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Bill Schmick

The first thing I did in writing this column was to take a look at the level of the major market indexes on Friday. All of them have improved in the two weeks since my last column. That's not bad for a market that over the last few months couldn't put two up days together in a row.

Now looking back it is clear to me that Mr. Obama's multiday blitz of announcements creating his economic team and his promise that "help was on the way" in dealing with the declining economy had much to do with the market's ability to sustain its gains (see my Nov. 21 Column "Half Full or Half Empty?"). 

Bottom line: his well-timed (just before Thanksgiving) and superbly crafted message gave a much-needed jolt of confidence to the investor. Since then, a seemingly endless stream of tidbits concerning another massive bail-out package including tax cuts for middle Americans and a jobs plan have hit the news.

It appears that there is an orchestrated chorus of worldwide bail-outs, new emergency plans, and interest-rate cuts combined with trillions of dollars in a multitude of currencies assaulting the economic crisis from every side. I once wrote that in a battle for the global financial system, governments will ultimately win because they have bigger pockets than all of us. I still believe that is true.

I admit it is hard to see these positive developments on a day when the unemployment numbers hit 6.7 percent and November's job loss at 533,000 was the highest in 34 years. And I'm sure you will agree that the layoffs are going to go higher before all is said and done. The litany of bad news is as long as the unemployment lines and the number of investors who have thrown in the towel or are convinced we are headed for a depression is larger than anything I have seen in my 29 years in the business. As an unapologetic contrarian, the degree of pessimism is starting to make me feel a bit more cautious about remaining on the sidelines.

The degree of decline in the commodity markets and, in particular, the massive sell-off in the price of oil has also been overdone in my opinion. Commodities, as I have said before, have a tendency to overshoot their targets.  Remember earlier in the year my upside target on oil was $128 to $130 a barrel? It overshot my forecast by a good $15 a barrel before pulling back. Now we are seeing the opposite extreme not only in oil but in every commodity from gold to the price of wheat. But there is a silver lining in this demand destruction.

I needed gas on the way to work this morning. It cost me $18.77. This summer the same fuel cost over $50 and I need to fill up at least three times a week since I commute 120 miles a day. As I paid the bill, it suddenly dawned on me that I have just received a whopping increase in my disposable income. On a national basis, the average person was paying an extra $4.77 a day in July in just fuel costs and now they are saving about $4 a day. That works out to $1,460 in annualized savings per person in the U.S. That doesn't count the roll-back in prices I'm beginning to see in the supermarkets as well.

So what's the point of all this? Well, it's beginning to feel a lot like Christmas to me, meaning the possibility that we just might have a good 'ole Christmas rally. With all the truly horrific news we have received over the last few weeks, the S&P is still up from where it was three weeks ago. The markets appear to be trying mightily to shrug off bad news. At the same time, Inauguration Day is looming closer and with it hope and expectations of a new day dawning in this country.

This could well prove irresistible to investors. Whether the optimism is justified is immaterial. A market as historically oversold as this one is will look for any excuse to move higher.

Bill Schmick is a licensed investment adviser representative and portfolio strategist as well as a registered financial planner with Berkshire-based Dion Money Management, which manages more than $500 million for middle-class Americans from coast to coast. Direct your inquires to Bill at 1-877-850-7942, Ext. 146, (toll-free) or e-mail him at wschmick@dionmm.com. You can also visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insight.

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