@theMarket: Stocks Make New Highs
It has been the best quarterly earnings season in a long time. More than 87 percent of companies that have reported thus far have beat earnings estimates. That is a record and investors celebrated.
Last week, I mentioned that this earnings season has been a classic example of a sell-on-the-news. It has been especially so for companies in the technology sector, but not so much for investments in other areas. What, you might ask, does this say about the overall markets?
The most bullish interpretation is that we will continue to move higher making new highs after new highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average made yet another new high yesterday, as did the S&P 500 Index. The NASDAQ is still off by 4 percent from its highs and the small cap Russell 2000 Index is off by 6 percent.
However, for the year thus far all the indexes have positive gains. The S&P at 12 percent is about ties with the Dow, while the small cap Russell and the technology-heavy NASDAQ are lagging. I have been warning investors since the beginning of the year that technology, especially the stay-at-home stocks, would be underperformers.
As we enter the second week of May, with the markets at, or close to, all-time highs, investors need to ask how much of the present macroeconomic data is already reflected in the price levels of the stock market. We know that coronavirus cases are falling and will probably fall further. We also know that this quarter and next will see economic growth spurt higher, while unemployment drops. I feel it would be safe to assume that the market has already discounted some of those future expectations.
However, don't think that Wall Street economists get it right all the time. Take April's unemployment report. Forecasts were for the economy to gain one million jobs last month. Instead, only 266,000 jobs were added. That was the largest miss since 1998. It immediately cast doubt on the timetable of economic recovery.
Expectations are that the economy is going to roar back, and with it corporate hiring plans. Friday's report, if anything, might reduce some of the more bullish enthusiasm of some financial analysts. That is a good thing, in my opinion.
The prospect for higher inflation is still a question mark, as is the future course of interest rates. Those two variables are interconnected and will occupy our attention for the foreseeable future. Sectors that benefit from inflation, like commodities, are outperforming. I expect they will continue to do so as the economy recovers. So-called “value' areas like industrials, transportation, and materials, as well as financials, have also done well and should also continue to gain, even if interest rates move higher.
The sectors that are hurt by inflation or higher interest rates, however, should underperform. The result could be a bifurcated market, something I believe we are witnessing at times right now. I am expecting markets to climb a little higher. My target for the S&P 500 Index is between 4,220 and 4,270. At this rate, we should hit my target by next week.
At that point, those invested in the three main indexes, you could see markets simply pause in the weeks ahead and trade in a range. That would be my most bullish scenario. The bearish story would be a classic May sell-off of possibly 5-10 percent. If that were to occur, the good news would be that the stronger sectors might mitigate some of the downside potential in the weaker areas.
I will be watching the transportation and energy sectors for clues. Those two areas should continue to gain if investors believe the re-opening trade is still intact. Weakness might indicate economic prospects have been fully discounted, in which case, the markets should follow their lead downward. Stay tuned and keep reading.
@theMarket: Fed Signals Equities 'All Clear' But Markets Don't Care
Investors were bolstered by the Fed's message this week. Low interest rates and monetary stimulus will remain pillars of the nation's economic recovery for as long as it takes. Investors were comforted, but not enough to materially move stocks higher.
It was indicative that despite bullish news on a variety of fronts, investors ignored the good and focused on the negatives. First quarter earnings results, for example, have been better than good, but not enough to satisfy the bulls. Apple smashed earnings estimates, sending its stock price higher in after-hours trade, but the next day it finished down. It has been the same story for many of the market's winners. What this tells me is that a lot of the good news in the market and in individual stocks may already be priced in.
Turning to the pandemic, the words we have all been waiting for "we have turned the corner," were spoken this week by President Biden in his first address to Congress. That should have sent markets shooting up, and it did for a moment or two. But investors choose instead to fret about the skyrocketing coronavirus cases in Brazil and India and what damage that might do to global trade.
On the economic front, this week's unemployment claims reached another pandemic-era low (553,000 claims), while first quarter GDP came in at a robust 6.4 percent. Many economists believe the numbers are going to get even better from here. The data was greeted with a mild yawn and little response other than to push the yield on the U.S. Ten-Year Treasury bond higher.
In the background, investors are keeping an eye on what most on Wall Street are calling President Biden's progressive agenda. The price tag on all this intended government spending (if passed) now totals in excess of $6 trillion. In order to pay for it, the president is seeking to raise the corporate tax rate, plus increase the income tax rate on the top 1 percent of taxpayers. In addition, the capital gains tax for millionaires would practically double in order to equalize the taxes on investment income and the tax rate for ordinary income. In another blow to the wealthy, the president would get rid of the so-called step-up in basis at death for any gains of more than $1 million.
Higher taxes are almost never good news for financial markets and might provide some of the concern that seems to have soured investors' moods. The fact that most Americans would not be hurt by Biden's tax increases may be tempering the potential damage of these tax initiatives as there is the plan itself.
If passed, investors know there could be an awful lot of fiscal stimulus on the way. Some economists are now comparing President Biden's plan to FDR's social programs during the Depression. If that were the case, a look at history would indicate a great leap forward in economic growth.
The three major indexes responded to all this good news, making new highs as the week progressed, but the bulls just couldn't keep up the pace. There was an increasing churn to the markets with individual stocks getting clobbered, despite favorable news across the board.
This is usually a precursor to some further consolidation that may be in store for us. An increasing number of Wall Street strategists have been sounding the alarm, predicting a 5-10 percent pullback at any time. Of course, several of them have been saying that for weeks or months and it has not occurred.
My own guess is that we spend the next few days digesting more earnings results, and then take a run at 4,240-4,280 level on the S&P 500 Index. At that point, let's see where we are. If there isn't still enough steam to move higher, than the ‘sell in May and go away' advice we hear every year might be in the cards. And May is only a day away.
@theMarket: Stocks Hit With Possible Tax Hike
It was a losing week for stocks. Most of the blame can be pinned on a proposal by the Biden administration to double the capital gains tax on investments. It is not official yet, but investors are counting on an announcement next week.
Before you hit the sell button on all those huge capital gains you have accumulated over the last few years, know the facts. Right now there aren't any. What we do know is that Joe Biden ran his winning presidential campaign on increasing taxes on the rich and on corporations. He plans to do just that, so it should not be a surprise to investors.
This proposal, if true, would impact the top 0.3 percent of Americans. For those earning $1 million a year or more, he wants to increase the capital gains tax rate from 20 percent to 39.6 percent. That is on top of the 3.8 percent tax on investment income that presently funds Obamacare. If you add in state taxes, the overall capital gains tax would be as high as 52.22 percent for New Yorkers and even higher for California residents (56.7 percent).
That would clearly be a steep increase and one that would impact all the stock market, at least temporarily. Just think of the gains some have accrued in the FANG stocks over the past few years. Many high-growth stocks are in the technology space and wealthy investors may want to cash in some of their chips if they truly believe the capital gains proposal would soon be the law of the land.
Wall Street pundits, while concerned, are attempting to downplay the suggested tax risk to investors. The level of increase, they say, is simply an opening gambit, a trial balloon, meant to be negotiated downward, if it were to pass at all. The slim majority of Democrats in Congress might make it impossible to get any capital gains tax change to get through. And, even so, the timing of any tax hike is also in question. Would it be effective this year or next?
Market participants are also anxiously watching the global COVID-19 case levels. Countries such as India and Japan are seeing coronavirus cases skyrocket. Here in the U.S., spring coronavirus cases are surging. Back in February, during the last surge, the U.S. was averaging 65,686 new COVID-19 cases a day. Fast forward to today, and we are averaging 64,814 new cases daily. Some states, like Michigan, are breaking all-time records in new cases.
You would think that doubling the number of vaccinated Americans would have at least made a dent in the rate of new cases, but at best, all it has done is kept the level of new cases around 65,000 a day. What may be even more concerning is that a new COVID variant has been detected by scientists at the Texas A&M lab that show signs of antibody resistance and more severe illness among young people.
The more contagious variants of COVID-19, which have become the dominant strains within the U.S., seem to be the culprit in this case and in the high level of new cases, according to medical experts. However, the good news is that the present administration seems to be doing all it can to get more people vaccinated, provide additional stimulus to the economy, and expand global trade and relations.
All this news, as you can imagine, is having an impact on the financial markets. The three averages have pulled back a little this week, but the real story is in the Bitcoin trade. I warned readers last Friday, cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin specifically), were ripe for a correction. Saturday, Bitcoin dropped 15 percent and by the end of this week the price of Bitcoin was below $50,000. Other popular coins such as Ethereum and Litecoin have also declined. Some analysts are expecting as much as a 50 percent pullback in Bitcoin (to $30,000) before the correction is over.
It does appear that momentum is stalling in this space. As I have written in the past, cryptocurrencies are considered speculative assets and not currencies, according to The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, and other central banks. As such, investing in this area is fraught with risk, no matter how convinced you are in its viability in the long-term. Only those with a strong stomach and staying power should be involved in this space.
As for the equity markets, despite a 1-2 percent decline, stocks are in a trading range. As we consolidate recent gains, I expect continued daily rotations between sectors and asset classes. I still think stocks will continue higher in the weeks ahead, but so will volatility.
@theMarket: Stocks Grind Higher as Bond Yields Retreat
April is usually a good month for markets. Historically, it is one of the three best months of the year for equities. We all know what happens in May ("sell in May and go away") but we will worry about that later.
Over in the bond market, the bond vigilantes may have started to doubt their conviction that inflation is a fait accompli and so yields must go up. This week, yields declined a bit, which gave a boost to some sectors (gold and silver, for example), while banks pulled back a little. But Friday's Producer Price Index report for March reversed that. PPI was up 1 percent versus expectations that were only half that, which brings the year-over-year gain to 4.3 percent.
After the report, precious metals fell back, banks rallied, and the U.S. dollar gained along with bond yields. But for long term investors these weekly, and even monthly, government reports should be taken with a grain of salt. The Fed has said that over the short-term the inflation rate will rise, but not nearly enough to cause any risk of runaway inflation.
This week's sector rotation among the day traders was to sell out of the re-opening stocks and back into large cap technology. Like gold and silver, readers should know that higher interest rates provide a headwind for the technology sector. As such, it makes sense that NASDAQ outperformed both the Dow and the S&P 500 Index this week. But the tech-heavy NASDAQ is still below its old highs, while the Dow and S&P 500 Indexes have been making new highs. I expect that technology overall and the FANG stocks could play catch-up with the other averages this month.
The Biden administration's infrastructure proposal also influenced trading. The president's willingness to compromise on the corporate tax rate, plus his invitation to talk with Republicans about the package overall, helped sentiment. That, in turn, pushed the benchmark S&P 500 Index to new highs as well as the Dow. In the meantime, the Russel 2000 small-cap index has taken a back seat to the main averages.
In this rotation-prone market, investors have been taking profits in the small-cap arena. There is some justification for this selling. Medical experts have been advising caution over the short-term due to a possible third wave of the coronavirus. This has fueled fears among traders that sporadic shutdowns could occur across America. If so, that could impact smaller companies more than larger concerns.
In addition, there has been a noted slow-down in retail participation in the small cap arena lately. Wall Street analysts were predicting that at least half of the latest stimulus checks would find their way into that retail-favored market. That was a bad bet, since the opposite seems to have occurred.
Instead, retail investors have paid down debt with their government windfall. Times are changing as well. As the country gets vaccinated, and more and more new opportunities present themselves (re-opening restaurants, movies, gyms, etc.), individuals are no longer confined to day trading on their computer screens.
I expect stocks to continue to climb this month, supported by good news on the earnings front and the expectation that the economy is gathering steam. Outside of the U.S., Europe and the lesser-developed areas, emerging markets, hold promise. Emerging markets have had substantial corrections during the last two months and seem ripe for buying, in my opinion, especially if the greenback continues to decline.
@theMarket: Spring Has Sprung in the Markets
New highs on the S&P 500 Index this week gave the bulls more ammunition to forge ahead. Leading the charge were clean energy, infrastructure, and technology stocks. Is this the start of another leg up for the equity averages?
Credit for the advance, in my opinion, was the increase in the rate of U.S. vaccinations (despite the uptick in coronavirus cases over the last week). Second were the actions of the Biden administration in moving rapidly to tackle the needs of the U.S. economy. Possibly even more important, at least in the long term, were their proposed efforts to address the dangerous widening of the income inequality gap in this country.
As readers are aware, the gap in income inequality has been growing in this country for three decades. The ongoing pandemic has only accelerated this problem. After years of politicians and economists arguing that "trickle down" economics would narrow this gap, the opposite has occurred.
President Biden has decided to try another approach. He is committing the largest spending program since Roosevelt's New Deal to narrow the income inequality gap between the haves and have-nots. His latest $2.25 trillion proposal, announced this week in Pittsburgh, was focused on dealing with the deteriorating state of the nation's infrastructure. But it also included a $400 billion program to care for elderly and disabled Americans, and $300 billion that would be directed into building and retrofitting affordable housing. These are areas where the income gap has caused enormous pain and suffering in many Americans.
Those who still insist on the bankrupt theory of private sector solutions to all our economic issues argue that there is little return on investment in programs like that. It is the kind of thinking that has divided this nation and alienated at least half our population. Whether you are Republican or Democrat, a Trump hater, or lover, income inequality affects all of us. Income inequality is color blind as well. My belief is that it is time to try something different, and the markets seem to agree with my assessment.
Despite Biden's plan to raise taxes on corporations and those earning $400,000 in income, the markets continue to rally. This has surprised the bears as well as many politicians. They trot out the same old tired arguments, warning that raising taxes in a weak economy will crater the economy. Historically, the threat of higher taxes usually resulted in a short-term decline in equity markets, but not this time. Why?
My explanation for this week's leap higher in the markets is simple. Most of Corporate America (and Wall Street} recognize the long-term jeopardy of the continued widening of the income gap on their own businesses. Remember, consumer spending comprises almost 70 percent of the economy overall. The less money consumers have, the less they spend. The less spending, the lower the economic growth rate.
This week, the market's gains were fueled by a come-back in technology stocks, led by the semiconductor and clean energy sectors. It was a welcome development for the bulls. Friday's labor report also held good news. U.S. job growth in March showed 916,000 jobs were added in the economy, while the unemployment rate dropped to 6 percent.
Now that March's volatility is winding down, and the end of quarter rebalancing is over, I am hoping for a better April into May for investors. Those who had raised some cash in February had some great opportunities to buy back stocks last month. I expect markets to continue higher but rotation between various sectors will also keep markets somewhat volatile.
A word of warning, however. Investors should not expect that President Biden's infrastructure proposal will pass in its present form. Its passage will require a great deal of negotiations and time. I'm thinking legislation won't be passed until October, with the price tag reduced to something below $2 trillion over 10 years. Remember, too, that in the past, infrastructures bills have failed to pass more times than not. Hopefully, in the end, something meaningful will actually get done, so keep your fingers crossed.