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@theMarket: Vaccine-Driven Markets

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires columnist
Investors are caught in a tug of war. On one side are the growing cases of COVID-19 throughout the country. On the other, the expectations that a virus cure, or at least a vaccine, is just around the corner. The market remains in the middle.
 
That's all you need to know to understand what happened to stocks this week. Two different announcements concerning vaccine progress had traders bid up stocks. The daily toll of deaths and cases, the slowing of the re-opening process, and the controversy over the coming school plans, all had a dampening effect on markets as well.
 
 The quarterly corporate earnings season is also upon us. Management's guidance on how they see their businesses recovering, if at all, are being followed closely by one and all. If we combine that with whatever new China bashing the president can come up with, you have a perfect storm of concerns. And what have I said about Walls of Worries? At the least, these cross currents should keep traders jumping.
 
Aside from the daily ups and downs of the market, there are some shifts underneath the overall averages that you may have missed. For example, the large cap technology sector, represented by the NASDAQ 100 Index, has seen the lion's share of gains since the March lows. Sure, many sectors have rebounded, but none can compare to the performance of the NASDAQ (17 percent-plus) thus far in 2020. Why?
 
Bulls reason that in a recession, large cap tech companies are "defensive." Businesses, as well as individuals, can't do without the products these companies offer, regardless of economic conditions. It also helps that these same companies are in fantastic financial shape with huge amounts of cash on their balance sheets. They are labeled "growth" and "defensive" companies.
 
But "value" stocks, those that depend on the economy for their growth and survival, have largely been left in the dust this year. Financials, industrials, energy, materials, transportation, retail, et al, have underperformed. That's because there will be no real economic recovery without a medical solution to the pandemic. A successful vaccine is the key. It could unlock the door to a "catch-up" trade in these value sectors.
 
If one looks at the valuation between value and growth, even the most ardent tech bulls acknowledge that the tech sector's valuations are in the stratosphere. Add to this that most of the gains since March are in a small number of stocks (like the FANG names). This does not fill me with confidence. 
 
The good news this week, however, was announcements that at least two vaccines in Phase One studies look promising.  The markets rose on the news but it was the value sectors which led, while technology underperformed. That is a good sign.
 
The week wouldn't be over without a comment on politics, since the investors and the nation are expecting another $1 trillion or more stimulus package within the next two weeks. The bail-out may happen, but given the election-year politics and the chasm between the two parties, August seems to be a better bet than July. 
 
At the same time, leaders of the European Community are meeting this weekend to further their own trillion dollar-plus efforts to stimulate their economies. I expect agreement on that effort will also be delayed. Investors will most likely be disappointed by those delays, both here and abroad. As such, I expect markets to remain choppy throughout the remainder of the month, but with the trend still higher. Last week, I wrote that I was looking for another 100 points on the S&P 500 Index. We are half way there. 
 

Bill Schmick is now the 'Retired Investor.' After working in the financial services business for more than 40 years, Bill is paring back and focusing exclusively on writing about the financial markets, the needs of retired investors like himself, and how to make your last 30 years of your life your absolute best. You can reach him at billiams1948@gmail.com or leave a message at 413-347-2401.

 

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