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@theMarket: New Year Markets Begin With Profit-Taking

By Bill SchmickiBerkshires columnist
Investors were greeted with a brutal bout of selling as 2024 unfolded this week. The stocks that had gained the most last year were obvious targets. Is this the end of the rally or is this simply a minor bump in the road?
 
The Santa Rally reversed, and the Grinch stomped on investors' hopes for further gains. The NASDAQ led stocks lower with the Magnificent Seven taking it on the chin. For those who believe in the idea that the first five trading days of January forecast the direction of the market for January and for the year overall, the market’s performance does not fill one with confidence.
 
It is nail-biting time for the bulls. The first three trading days of the year were negative. That has happened 12 times since 1950. Only three times has the market managed to turn positive by day 5. To me, the jury is out until the market closes on Jan. 8.    
 
As for the disappointment that Santa did not come to Wall Street this year, let's look at history. Over the last 80 years, there have been 15 times where we have had negative results over the last five days of December and the first two days of the following January. Out of those 15 times, the market managed to deliver positive returns 10 times with a median return of 3 percent.
 
From a technical point of view, the sell-off did not even dent the bullish cast of the markets. As I have written over the last few weeks, the markets were overheated and each day we gained that condition worsened. The good news is that the selling has relieved that overbought condition without seriously impacting the upward momentum of the markets.
 
Even as the markets declined, some of the areas that lagged the markets during 2023 moved higher. The health-care sector, for example, saw some great gains, as did energy stocks and utilities. Those areas underperformed the markets drastically last year.
 
While most readers are focused on stocks, the main drivers of the last two months' gains have been the steep decline in bond yields and the declining dollar. Both areas have reversed this week with the benchmark Ten-Year U.S. Treasury bond seeing its yield break above 4 percent this week on the upside. And as we know, bond yields up usually mean stocks are down. Assets that are on the other side of the dollar (precious metals, materials, crypto, emerging markets) were hurt as well.
 
I am sure one of the reasons this occurred was a reverse in sentiment by bond traders. The betting on future interest rate cuts in 2024 had gotten out of hand, in my opinion. Some were betting up to six rate cuts in the year beginning in March. That to me was a case of irrational exuberance. Just because the Fed may have finished raising interest rates does not automatically mean the central bank will start cutting rates. In other words, the Fed's "higher for longer" is still the name of the game.
 
The economic news certainly did not support the need for the Fed to cut interest rates anytime soon. The economy is growing. Unemployment is not rising. Instead, the jobs market, per Friday's non-farm payrolls, surprised economists on the upside. The economy added 216,000 jobs, which was a big beat compared to the forecasts of 175,000 jobs.
 
On a different subject, the U.S. government was also responsible for some big price movements in two sectors this week:  crypto and pot stocks. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has until Jan. 10 to rule on a proposal by Ark Invest and 21Shares. Both firms are applying to issue a bitcoin spot currency exchange-traded fund.  Many other big brokers and asset managers such as Fidelity, Invesco, BlackRock, Van Eck, Wisdomtree, and more have done the same.
 
The SEC could reject the proposed application outright, delay it, or approve it. It looks to be a binary event that should send Bitcoin substantially higher (or lower) depending on the outcome. The betting ranges from 90 percent approval to zero chance.
 
On Wednesday, an October 2023 letter from the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) to a member of Congress, was revealed. It made clear that the agency had "the final authority to schedule, reschedule, or deschedule" drugs under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA). The DEA also told lawmakers it is "now conducting its review" of whether to soften federal regulation of marijuana under the CSA. The news instantly sent marijuana stocks higher.
 
Last year, I wrote that the Department of Health and Human Services had asked the DEA to review marijuana's Schedule 1 status and to reduce it to a Schedule III substance. That request triggered a huge run in the sector. This was largely due to the differential in federal taxes that would occur if the DEA granted marijuana Schedule III status. The industry would immediately experience a large decline in taxes leading to a big jump in profitability.
 
At the time, Industry experts believed that the DEA review would only happen in the second half of the year and closer to the elections. I advised readers not to chase the stocks, but rather wait until investor attentions were focused elsewhere. That happened. Hopefully, you were able to pick up some stocks or an ETF on the cheap.  
 
Fortunately, some of that fluff has now come out of the markets, which to me is a positive development. I think we now have a chance to see new highs over the next week or two. However, that does not mean that we are up, up, and away into the rest of the first quarter. I am still expecting a more savage decline sometime soon that could begin as early as late January, or early February.
 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold, or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.

 

     

The Retired Investor: Video Streaming Services Hit Brick Wall

By Bill SchmickiBerkshires columnist
The proliferation of streaming services over the past few years appears to have reversed course. Price increases, the introduction of advertising, and fewer hit shows have consumers finally looking at the number of streaming services they are paying for.
 
Wall Street has also lost its love affair with streaming companies, except for Netflix. That company continues to benefit from its competitors' woes. During COVID, when Americans were trapped at home, they spent hours watching television. Streaming services could do no wrong.
 
However, times change, and the couch potato behavior is disappearing. As it does, the willingness to pay higher prices for something few are watching is also declining. Throw in the fact that due to the writers and actors strikes last year, there will be fewer streaming products available, and you have a ready-made excuse to pare back on streaming services.
 
From Wall Street's perspective, there are simply too many services competing for your dollars. The major players led by Netflix include Disney+, Hulu, Paramount+, Max, Starz, Peacock, Discovery+ and Apple TV+ are facing lower profitability or no profits at all. Few of these streamers have developed the scale necessary to achieve profitability.
 
There are two main options to turn around profitability — increase prices, add advertising, or merge with other streamers. Over the past several months, most of these services announced price increases. In addition, levels of pricing were offered, if you want to put up with advertising. Those who do can pay a lower price.
 
Starting at the end of this month, for example, Amazon Prime Video will be charging viewers another $2.99 per month. If you don't pay the extra fee, you will be forced to watch advertising interspersed within all your shows. Disney, Netflix, Max, Apple+, and others have raised prices, and some have introduced advertising as well.
 
These moves have had a predictable knee-jerk reaction from their audience. Consumers who didn't care suddenly became interested in discovering exactly how much they were paying and for what services.
 
Back in June 2022, I pointed out in a column "Streaming Come of Age," that almost a third of U.S. consumers underestimated how much they spend on subscriptions by $100 to $199 per month, according to a study by market research firm, C+R Research. It was also true that many people (42 percent) have forgotten that they are paying for a streaming service that they no longer use. That appears to be changing. In the past two years according to Antenna, which studies subscription services, about 25 percent of consumers who had subscribed to the major streaming services have dropped three or more of these services.
 
Some consumers, like my brother-in-law, who is an avid sports fan, are debating whether cutting cable or cutting streamers is the cheapest way to go. This is surprising since streaming services have been the beneficiary of the recent trend of cutting cable services. By the end of 2023, over half of U.S. consumers (54.4 percent) have dropped cable TV and traditional Pay-TV services, according to Insider Intelligence.
 
For some streamers that lack the scale needed to achieve profitability, the only course that makes sense is merger or acquisition. Paramount, for example, is in discussions with Warner Brothers Discovery to combine forces. Rumors abound that other streamers are going down the same path. Disney+ is acquiring the remaining 33 percent stake in Hulu it does not already own from Comcast.
 
Merging two unprofitable streaming services into a single service might improve scale, but probably not enough to guarantee profitability. Subscribers of both services could save money, but beyond that, I can't see how the costs of producing content would change. 
 
It may be that we are on the verge of a "back to the future" moment where bundles of streaming services are offered at a discounted price as they were on cable. What bothers me more is that the trend toward reinstating advertising in streaming services takes us back to a time when audiences were forced to watch hours of mindless drivel on cable. I was saved with the advent of DVR which allowed fast-forwarding through ads. It is not available on streaming. That puts most of us between a rock and a hard place. Who knows, it may make cable a better option for many once again.  
 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold, or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.
 
     

@theMarket: Wall Street Forecasts 2024 Returns

By Bill SchmickiBerkshires columnist
As we close out 2023, stocks continue to inch higher. The traditional rally encompassing the last five days after Christmas into the first two days of the New Year is on track. Next week, trading should resume and with it a possible new high in the markets. 
 
Low volume, empty desks, and a focus on buying up the laggards of 2023 describe the week's trading action. Macroeconomic news was scarce. In that vacuum, stocks were at the mercy of proprietary traders and the ODTE speculators. The financial media kept investors busy by publishing a forest full of 2024 forecasts by brokers and money managers.
 
Overall, the 2024 S&P 500 Index targets range from 4,200 to 5,500. Given that over a long period, the S&P 500 has delivered around 10.13 percent yearly returns since 1957, and 9.19 percent over the last 150 years. As such, forecasts that mimic those returns should be ignored.
 
Those forecasts say to me that the authors have no idea where the market is going. As such, they have just taken the historical average gain as their forecast. Very few are bearish for 2024.
 
The current consensus is that the Fed will cut interest rates at least three times next year. Inflation is not coming back, and the U.S. will escape a recession. Interest rates will remain lower, but yields may bounce back up for a short time. The U.S. dollar will also continue to decline.
 
I am usually not one that agrees with consensus forecasts. I am also going to refrain from forecasting where the S&P 500 will end up 12 months from now. There are just too many factors that can change my outlook along the way. So instead, I will focus on the risks and rewards I see for the markets.
 
While I do think the markets will be higher than they are now by the end of next year, there will be some substantial pullbacks along the way. In January, for example, we could see a blow-off top that could see the S&P 500 index reach 4,900-5,000. That is the good news.
 
However, I am looking for a pullback after that. We could see a big bout of profit-taking beginning in the second half of January or early in February.
 
This consolidation should continue into April. Worries of slowing macroeconomic growth and falling employment will dampen investors' enthusiasm for stocks. This will be punctuated by doubts and uncertainty about whether the Fed will cut rates or simply continue to pause. In summary, the first half of 2024 will be volatile and trend to the downside.
 
There may be some areas that could withstand this malaise. I think that precious metals may be one of them. Europe may turn the economic corner providing some global growth. China could come back as well, in which case, materials might also do well. Overall, however, the first half is going to be bumpy.
 
In the second half, we face the 2024 elections. I expect the present administration, like every other administration, will pull out all the stops to goose the markets and the economy before the November elections.
 
Between the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank, I would expect to see a loosening of monetary policy and lower interest rates by April. This should ease financial conditions. If so, economic growth should rise, as will corporate profits and productivity. Inflation might remain sticky as a result but still trend downward below 3 percent, but still not reach the Fed's 2 percent target.
 
I do not expect another year of stellar performance by the Magnificent Seven. They will gain in price for sure, but I would expect the other 493 stocks of the S&P 500 to do better as will small-cap stocks, industrials, financials, and biotech.
 
That's it in a nutshell. I caution that my forecasts can change (and probably will) based on unforeseen circumstances. I wish you a wonderful 2024. Happy New Year.
 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold, or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.

 

     

The Retired Investor: How Ski Resorts Are Surviving Climate Change

By Bill SchmickiBerkshires columnist
Numerous studies have predicted that climate change will be the death knoll of skiing. That may be true, but year after year, ski resorts large and small seem to eke out one difficult season after another. And not every year has been a disaster.
 
No one is denying that the weather is changing, and winters are getting warmer. This week, which kicks off the 2023-2024 ski season, for example, most of the country is experiencing warm weather, disappointing skiers and resorts alike in the Midwest and New England.  And yet, during the 2022-2023 ski season, there had been mammoth snowfalls in some areas of the country. Climate change can do that, dumping extraordinary amounts of precipitation in some places while causing drought in others.
 
Record snowfall totals at western ski areas, for example, contributed to the number of skier visits, while overall average snowfall at ski areas across the country totaled 224 inches. That was a 30 percent increase above the 10-year average, which contributed to an increase of six days for the season, above the average of 116 days. 
 
New England winters, where I live, have been warming faster than the national average. Over the past 50 years, the temperatures have increased by 4.5 degrees and as the weather gets warmer, nature is producing less snow. For the entirety of New England, January 2023 was the warmest it has been since record-keeping began in 1895. New Hampshire had its third warmest winter on record.
 
As such, snowmaking has become the saving grace for the ski industry. Ski resorts have become increasingly reliant on snowmaking to combat climate change. Today, more than 90 percent of resorts depend on some system of artificial snow production.
 
Some may be surprised to know that investment by the ski industry hit a record high last year at $812.4 million and is expected to be even higher this season. The lion's share of spending was on upgrading lifts, but snowmaking has also taken an increasing share of expenditures. Climate change has made that a vital area for continued improvement. Overall, resorts reinvested $26 per skier visit back into their operations last year.
 
As the winter temperatures get warmer, companies are coming up with technology to counter the temperature changes. Back in the day, making snow required temperatures around 14 to 10 degrees below freezing. Today, new snow-making machines can make snow with temperatures as high as 80 degrees — if you are willing to spend the money to do so. Improvements in snow guns, for example, can make copious amounts of snow much faster, and at higher temperatures. Unfortunately, snowmaking is an energy-expensive process, especially in compressing the air needed to spread the artificial snow.
 
Most local utilities limit the amount of energy resorts can consume. However, both hardware and software breakthroughs have allowed energy cost-savings and efficiencies in the snowmaking systems that encompass everything from hydrants to fan snowmakers, and computer systems that can automate and analyze the entire process. 
 
One of the challenges many resorts face is drought in many regions. The amount of water needed to make snow doesn't change. Areas that are experiencing decreases in their water supplies due to climate change or resort expansion are scrambling to come up with ways to conserve and/or increase their water supply. 
 
Last season (2022-2023), the $50 billion U.S. ski industry saw an estimated 65.4 million skiers and snowboard riders hit the slopes. That was a jump of almost 5 million skier visits from the previous season, according to the National Ski Areas Association.  Factors that boosted industry performance were heavy snowfall in ski areas on the Pacific Southwest and the Rockies. The number of working ski areas also increased a bit from 473 to 481.
 
In 2024, the arrival of the El Nino cycle is set to bring a warm dry winter to this part of the world. The impact of climate change colliding with the El Nino event has a 54 percent chance of being one of the top five events since 1950, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Mild and wet with a cooler drier end to winter, is the NOAA prediction. However, The Old Farmer's Almanac is predicting a banner ski season for 2024. 
 
No matter what forecast proves accurate, snowmaking will continue to be the difference between a good and a bad year for the ski industry overall.
 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold, or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.

 

     

@theMarket: Santa's Stocking Full of Year-End Gains

It has been a heck of a year for equities. Most investors should see double-digit gains when they open their January reports. Is the best yet to come?
 
Officially, the Santa Claus rally comprises the last five trading days in December, plus the first two trading days in January. If that tradition holds, we should see further gains from here. However, many worry that Santa came early and all we face into the new year is a downside.
 
They have reason to worry. We are already quite extended. Bullish sentiment is over the top. Bond yields have dropped so low in such a short period that many traders are looking for a rebound in yields. In addition, there seems to be an attempt by Fed officials to discourage investors from expecting the central bank to start cutting interest rates in March of next year.
 
Ever since the FOMC December meeting's pivot to a more dovish stance, yields have fallen dramatically, while stocks roared higher. The "higher for longer" message they have been spouting for months about interest rates, has been replaced by "too far, too fast" when assessing the gains in financial markets over the last few weeks.
 
In the latter half of this week, we did see some profit-taking, which was to be expected. After all, by Tuesday's finish, the Dow had registered its fifth record close in a row. Most indexes were up nine or ten consecutive days in a row. The record rally had pushed the S&P 500 Index within reach of its all-time high made in January 2022.
 
It is getting to the point that investors were expecting only up days and so were somewhat shocked by Wednesday's late-day sell-off. In the last hour and a half of trade, the markets took a sudden turn lower for no apparent reason.
 
The averages were all suddenly in free-fall with no news or event that could explain the decline. The Dow dropped more than 475 points, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ declined more than 1.5 percent each. The small-cap Russel 2,000 lost the most at 1.89 percent. What happened?
 
Those readers who read my column last week — "Zero-Date Options Boost Market Risks" — have a leg up on how and why this sudden downdraft occurred. If you haven't read it, I urge you to do so.
 
ODTE is an acronym for zero-days-to-expiration options. An enormous amount of volume in the options market (over 60 percent) is in these one-day option bets on the direction of the market indexes. The ODTE market, in my opinion, has been transformed from a viable hedging strategy for professionals to something more akin to gambling on a horse race or buying a lottery ticket for many retail traders. The risk is enormous and given the right circumstances could impact financial markets drastically.
 
This week, we saw the risk involved when just a few bearish ODTE contracts triggered a mad rush for the exits. An army of option day traders (40 percent of ODTE traders are retail speculators), fearing a possible market sell-off, moved to one side of the boat at the same time. That created a cascading selling event that only stopped when the day was done, OTDE options expired, and the market closed. Overnight, without the pressure of bearish ODTE contracts, futures rebounded. By Thursday's opening, those same ODTE traders scrambled into bullish options bets once again.
 
As we head into the week between Christmas and New Year, most market participants will be taking off to celebrate the holidays. As a result, trading will be light and volumes quite low, which can set the stage for unexpected, and at times, wild gyrations in the markets. The OTDE options market can exacerbate that behavior.
 
There is a part of me that hopes we do see some further pullback in the days ahead. It would relieve some of the overbought conditions in the market. That would set us up next week for a further leg higher in markets, and possibly new highs into January. 
 
I urge investors to enjoy the gains because I fear this party will be coming to an end somewhere around the middle of January. At that point, expect to batten down the hatches, but more on that forecast next week. In the meantime, happy holidays to all and to all a good week.
 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold, or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.

 

     
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