@theMarket: Another Week of Market Volatility
As the month wound down, so did stocks. Pronouncements from Washington dominated the market's direction on a daily basis. We can expect to see that trend continue as the summer doldrums reduce liquidity and exaggerate market swings.
The adage of "sell in May," however, did not fulfill the bears' expectations this year.
Actually, the month of May has been pretty good for stocks recently. The S&P 500 Benchmark Index gained a smidge over two percent for the month this year. That's not to say those gains were easy. The stress level for those who are trying to trade this market is through the roof.
And that's because two opposing trends are impacting the financial markets. The first is short-term volatility caused by political events. At the moment, these are mostly trade-related: tariffs and counter-tariffs, NAFTA concerns, and China trade. All of the above have generated a war of words (or tweets) and, depending on someone's mood in the morning, can spark 1-2 percent movements in the index in either direction. The falsehoods, about-turns, and misinformation have day traders going crazy.
And don't forget the international events. This week, Italy dominated trade, as a political/financial crisis may be brewing in Europe's fourth-largest economy. A new prime minister, Guiseppe Conte, was appointed Friday as an uneasy coalition of populists and right-wingers agreed to compromise in the wake of a severe financial downturn in Italian financial markets this week.
We will wait for future developments (see my column published yesterday on the subject) before giving the green light to Italy and Europe. At the same time, the Trump/Kim show continues. The off again, on-again charade is accomplishing what both egomaniacs want most: more time in the limelight.
Then there is the longer-term trend, which centers on real fundamentals: unemployment, inflation, interest rates, global growth and the like. All of these indicators are still flashing positive for the stock market. As readers know, I have been urging investors to focus on that trend and ignore the noise caused by all the short-term, headline-grabbing events.
Take today's much-heralded employment report. The U.S. unemployment rate has just hit an 18-month low at 3.8 percent. We haven't had a lower rate since the year 2000. Wage growth came in at 2.7 percent compared to a year ago. That is a stellar performance, no two ways about it.
This report, however, was marred by controversy. Prior to its release, Donald Trump tweeted a "heads-up" that he was "looking forward to seeing the employment numbers at 8:30 this morning" — obviously a tip that the numbers would be good. Federal rules (as Trump knows but ignored) state that no one in the executive branch can comment on major economic reports until an hour after they are released. Since few individuals (but almost all institutions) trade in the hours before and after the markets open, Trump's comments enabled bond, currency, and stock market futures traders at big institutions to profit from this information.
At the end of the day, what matters is the economic trends, and right now the trends are your friends. Until the data say otherwise, investors should remain invested, ignore the short-term volatility traps and enjoy the summer.
@theMarket: Nothing Memorable in the Markets this Week
Most indexes ended the week where they started. While day traders may have lost or gained from intraday moves, serious investors simply ignored the constant and contradictory stream of news coming out of Washington.
It isn't worth the space to comment on all the on-again, off-again series of tweets and statements that has become part of our daily diet. The main events that did carry some substantive weight were the House rollback of the Dodd-Frank rules. This easing of regulations on all but the largest banks, removes the required ‘stress tests' from most banks. While it relaxes some of the more stringent rules on banks, it does continue to regulate those areas that ushered in the financial crisis.
Bank stocks, which had already run up in anticipation of these changes, sold off on the news. Financial analysts believe that the new rules will trigger a wave of mergers and acquisitions among regional banks now that the government will be no longer watching every move they make.
The Federal Reserve Bank's minutes from their May meeting were also released. It gave market participants some hope, at least for a day or two, that the Fed would remain accommodative regarding interest rates. None of the members seemed worried that the economy could be overheating.
While June and probably September rate hikes are still on the table, the Fed members appeared to be relaxed when it comes to their inflation targets. Inflation hit 2 percent in March, but the central bank does not appear to be overly concerned that it has reached that number. Some believe it won't remain there and will fall back in the months ahead.
I guess the biggest disappointment for investors was President Trump's announcement that the June 12 summit meeting between him and Kim Jong Un is now off the table. Stocks worldwide sold off on the announcement. Whether or not this is just one more tactic in Trump's "Art of the Deal," remains to be seen. However, investors should realize that many of the issues between the U.S., North and South Korea, and China are not going to be resolved by a one-time meeting of these two leaders.
For example, Kim's sudden change of heart over his nuclear program, which occurred in late April, may not be all that it seems. Last month, the University of Science and Technology in China revealed that the mountain above North Korea's main nuclear test site at Punggye-ri had collapsed following a nuclear test in September of last year. Estimated at 100 kilotons, the blast was the sixth test and ten times stronger than any of the previous five.
As a result, a wave of earthquakes rocked the mountain and surroundings, creating so much tectonic stress that parts of the mountain collapsed, and fissures appeared throughout the mountain. Scientists believe that any further tests within this mountain range could generate a "critical failure" that could cause a wide-scale environmental disaster. Although no radioactivity has been identified along the China-North Korea border, Chinese scientists fear that radioactive dust could be leaching through tunnels, cracks and holes in the mountain.
Adding weight to this news, despite the name calling and North Korea's threats to drop all efforts of denuclearization this week, Kim went ahead and carried out the demolition of all the tunnels leading into its nuclear testing facility in the mountain. Why?
I'm guessing all these good-faith efforts by Kim are a sham. Contrary to his public statement that his nuclear weapons program is "complete," it is far from it, but his main testing facility has become a radioactive hell hole. China's concerns that the spread of North Korean radioactivity is a clear and present danger is probably the real reason for Kim's supposed change of heart.
In any case, we will continue to hear more on this. Meanwhile, the markets will continue to consolidate, until they don't. Once this period comes to an end, we should resume our climb higher, so stay invested.
Please take a moment this weekend and remember the fallen. I know I will. Semper Fi.
@the Market: Stocks Look Ready to Reach New Highs
The S&P 500 Index had its best week in two months. All the averages made good gains and investor sentiment numbers are improving. We could see a return to the January highs before summer unless something comes out of left field.
Left field has become a familiar place for the markets under the present political regime, but not all the news has been negative on that front. Take the release of three American prisoners by North Korea as an example. Kudos to the president for that one. Then there is the Iran nuclear deal — another campaign promise kept. Why are these important?
An American politician willing to keep his campaign promises is a historical event, in my opinion. The June 12 meeting between Kim Jong Un and President Trump is another fabulous breakthrough. Those remarkable actions can and have impacted investor sentiment in ways that have lifted hopes and with them the markets.
The jury on bowing out of the Iranian nuclear deal is still out. Readers may recall that back in 2015, Iran agreed to curb its nuclear development efforts in exchange for the lifting of severe economic sanctions. The U.S., U.K., Russia, China, Germany and France all signed the agreement.
At the time, many Americans felt it was the best deal that could be had. Suspicions remained, however, that Iran, despite the treaty and its denial that it ever had a nuclear weapons program, would and could continue to develop that effort secretly. Just days before the president's decision to back out of the deal, Israel released a mountain of documents detailing what they believe was Iran's clandestine, decade-long nuclear weapon program.
Whether it was the Israeli documents that decided the president, or something else, the deed was done. Why is this important to investors? Oil.
Iran is the world's fifth-largest oil producer, pumping 1.5 million barrels/day in an already tight energy market. Taking that supply off the market via new sanctions provides additional fuel stoking the already-accelerating price of oil. For my view of oil prices and where they are going, please read my column "What's up with oil?"
However, it is not always what it seems in geopolitics. The other signatory nations are steadfastly opposed to America's unilateral departure from the treaty. As such, it is a distinct possibility that the remaining treaty nations will simply ignore our departure, disregard the sanctions, or, in some cases, give lip service to sanctions but direct their companies to simply carry on as usual. If so, that sanctioned oil will be re-routed to China, India, or parts of Europe, leaving the U.S. decision ineffectual and the Iranians free to continue along their nuclear path.
As for the gains in the stock market this week, credit goes to the president's actions and a stellar earnings season. The average earnings gain was 25 percent (18 percent minus the tax savings). Thursday's consumer inflation data also helped. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in lower than expected, leaving traders to believe that inflation is still reasonably under control. In which case, the Federal Reserve Bank need not raise rates any higher than the market expects this year.
As for all this worry about "peak earnings," the historical data somewhat contradicts those concerns. Seventy percent of the time since WW II after peak earnings were reported on the S&P 500 Index, the markets were higher nine months later. I hope that helps. I'm thinking we go higher, after some profit-taking in the coming week. The S&P 500 Index should hit 2,800 soon. From there, it is only a hop, skip and jump to record highs of 2,872 made back on Jan. 26.
I'm not quite sure we will get there this month and there will be pullbacks galore, but we are heading in the right direction.
@theMarket: China Worries Dominate Markets
You would think an unemployment rate that hit 3.9 percent in April would have cheered the market. It was, after all, the lowest such rate in 18 years. But no, all eyes were focused on the first round of China/U.S. trade talks, which conclude today.
The American team includes Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and two, hardline China hawks: Robert Lighthizer, our trade rep, and the administration's trade and manufacturing adviser, Peter Navarro. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin heads the team that is trying, according to the President 's tweet, "trying to negotiate a level playing field."
What we would like to see from the Chinese is a commitment to increase their U.S. imports by as much as $200 billion by 2020. That's in addition to an agreement that would finally protect our intellectual property rights, while allowing American companies greater access to their markets.
As for China, the fact that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, is heading the Chinese team indicates that the Chinese are more than willing to address the issues. Over the last two days, the Chinese media has remained cautious in reporting the talks while international trade experts warn that there will be no "grand" bargain" struck this time around.
The Chinese, however, are entering the talks softly, while following our own President Teddy Roosevelt's admonition to carry a big stick. That stick is soybeans. Over $14 billion were exported to China last year, but over the last month China has suddenly canceled several shipments of U.S. soybeans — about 133,700 metric tons. They have, instead, turned to Brazil to fill their demand and that country is happy to oblige.
The Chinese also slapped anti-dumping tariffs on American sorghum, used as animal feed and in making whiskey. Although that market only amounts to a little over $1.1 billion in exports, the action was big enough to cause Archer-Daniels Midland, a big agricultural processor, to announce a $30 million hit to its business.
Farm-belt politicians, who recognize that the soybean states had delivered a double-digit victory to the president, are already demanding relief for their constituents. As in all tariff actions, those who are not economically impacted by changes in tariffs support our new "get tough" trade policy — until those policies impact them personally.
Predictably, farmers are already grumbling that there are better ways of getting a level playing field without upsetting their apple (or soybean) cart. It also happens to be planting season. Farmers have no idea how much to plant, given the trade talks. The concerns for what this might mean for them personally is growing rapidly.
My own two cents is that the U.S. and China will come to an agreement of sorts. Our negotiators know that $200 billion in additional imports is a "big ask" of the Chinese. They simply don't need our imports, outside of those in sophisticated technology and in defense. There is no way we are going to export any kind of armaments, and the administration has already cracked down on technology transfers, so what's left?
Autos are a big-ticket item, and the Chinese have already promised to open their market to more foreign-made imports. There is also liquefied natural gas (LNG) which we produce in abundance. That could work if they have the necessary ports to accept delivery of that volatile energy product.
However, there is enough on-going uncertainty over the trade talks to have driven the stock market down to its 200-day moving average for the fourth time. Today's unemployment number barely made a dent in investors' consciousness. The last time unemployment was below 4 percent for any length of time was in the 1960s (when I was in high school). I think it is a big deal and one of the reasons I want you to remain fully invested.
Since there is absolutely no way to handicap the string of political events — Stormy Daniels, Mueller, Iran, Syria, etc. — we simply need to hold-on, and let the market barrel through this period of consolidation.
@theMarket: Peak Earnings Versus the Yield Curve
"Never a dull market" could be the motto of choice to describe stock market performance year-to-date. This week, we need to add two more concerns to the market's wall of worry.
"Peak earnings" is the first issue, which has been brought to the forefront by the 18-20 percent earnings gains reported by companies thus far for the first quarter. The bears would describe peak earnings as the peak of a growth cycle for a stock or a group of stocks such as an index like the S&P 500 or Russel 2000.
Typically during peak earnings, a company will report big "beats" in revenue and profits, but management will then guide investors' expectations lower for the next quarter or so (and maybe even the year).
A small but growing group of investors are comparing what happened back in May 2011 to events today. The S&P 500 rallied over 50 percent between March 2009 through May 2011.
Earnings peaked at that point, and the markets rolled over, at least temporarily. They fear this could happen again, especially when the effects of the tax cut will dissipate to some degree in 2019.
Here's my take: We all know that part of the strong earnings growth this past quarter was a direct result of tax savings. We knew it. You knew it. And the market knew it. Most analysts, including me, were expecting an 8 percent pickup in earnings simply due to taxes. That's exactly what happened. As such, there should have been (and is) a knee-jerk "sell on the news" reaction that continues today.
Second, should anyone but day traders really care about "peak earnings?" Just because a company's earnings next quarter or next year won't match or beat a 20 percent gain this quarter does not mean earnings won't grow. Next year, for example, the Street is looking for overall earnings to grow by about 10 percent. Granted that is half the rate of this quarter, but it is still growth and good growth at that. And don't forget that next year's growth rate will also be based on a larger pie of earnings reported this year.
I don't buy the peak earnings argument, nor do I necessarily agree with the second of this week's worry — an inverted yield curve. What's that, you may ask? It is when the long end of the bond market yields less than the short end. Historically, it has been an accurate signal that recession is coming.
Usually, investors demand higher rates of interest from bond issuers the further out in time (duration) they go. That makes sense when you think that the longer one holds an investment, say a ten or twenty-year bond, the higher the risk that something bad could happen (war, bankruptcy, inflation). Shorter term bonds: 3 months, 6 months, one and two-year has less risk because you hold it for less time and therefore have less interest (yield).
Given that the Fed is raising short-term interest rates, while the longer-dated bonds are remaining the same, or only rising a little, the yield curve is flattening. Bond and stock market investors have been watching the spread (the difference in interest rates between the two-year and 10-year bonds) narrow. It is making them increasingly nervous because it could be saying that there is more risk of a recession in the short-term than there is over the long-term.
But short-term doesn't mean the recession would start tomorrow, or next week, or even next year. In past cycles, the average time between the onset of an inverted yield curve and a recession was over 20 months. Besides, there are other variables — inflation, credit, monetary policy and the overall economy — that are at least equal, if not greater importance, in determining a recession. There is no justification I see to sell stocks now for a possible recession based on a yield curve that has not inverted but only flattened slightly.
While I don't put much credence into these new concerns, it does and will generate even more volatility in the markets. We have a whole series of unknowns and potentially negative developments to overcome. Everything from a tariff-inspired trade war to a renegotiated NAFTA trade agreement, geopolitical issues ranging from the Iran nuclear agreement to North Korea talks, not to mention on-going disputes with China, Russia and Syria. If you add in domestic concerns: Mueller, Cohen, the upcoming mid-term elections, etc., we have a nasty mix of uncertainty that should keep the markets guessing and me writing. In the meantime, stay invested and look for better days ahead.