Home About Archives RSS Feed

@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets

Bill Schmick

No, QE II is not the name of a cruise ship; although it might as well be, given the upward ride it is providing the stock market. The Federal Reserve is expected to launch another quantitative stimulus effort in early November and the markets are rising in anticipation of that event.

On Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated that the central bank is ready to move if necessary to stimulate the economy. Investors are assuming it's a question of "when" and not "if" the Fed will move to buy additional U.S. Treasury bonds, mortgage-backed securities and whatever else they decide will provide additional impetus to a slow-growth economy.

In an election year, where the continuing high rate of unemployment and the ongoing housing mess is being blamed on the Democrats, the pressure on the Fed for a QE II must be enormous. Remember, at the end of the day, Bernanke is a political appointee, as are the members of the Fed's governing board. Sure, we would like to think that the Fed is an independent body focused solely on the economic health of America and it is most of the time.

On the other hand, if the president's wishes dovetail with what the Fed perceives to be necessary in helping the economy so much the better.

In my last few market columns, I explained that QE II was a game changer. The Fed, by promising additional stimulus, is providing investors with a "put" on the economy and therefore on the stock market. If the economy continues to grow on its own, the markets will go higher. If the economy falters, the Fed will intervene to fix it and the markets will go higher. What's not to like about that?

The arguments on whether we really do need another stimulus, will QE II really work, and will it add to the potential for more inflation down the road are consuming a forest of newsprint. In the meantime, investors are dumping the dollar (see my latest column "The Coming Currency Wars"), the markets forge steadily higher and commodities of all kinds are on fire.

As readers recall, only a month ago I raised my price target for gold to $1,350 per ounce. We have already surpassed that level and it looks like the yellow metal will hit $1,400 per ounce very soon. I'm going to have to raise my price target again but first I would like to see gold and other commodities pull back.

The dollar is key to any commodity correction. There is an inverse relationship between the dollar and commodities. The dollar may bounce over the next few weeks and if it does, that should cause commodities in general to pull back. Remember too that in the commodity arena, corrections are extremely sharp where prices can drop dramatically in a very short time.

As the S&P 500 Index flirts with the 1,180 level, I would expect a bit of resistance before the bulls make a dash toward the year's highs. The ongoing questions over housing foreclosures that have embroiled most of the banking sector this week has kept a lid on the averages. The next Fed meeting won't be until early November so any potential QEII is still weeks away. The main market moving catalyst we face is this quarter's earnings announcements. So far, company results have been a mixed bag. My advice is to let the markets pull back a bit before committing any more money to this party.

Tags: Federal Reserve, Bernanke, stimulus      

Support Local News

We show up at hurricanes, budget meetings, high school games, accidents, fires and community events. We show up at celebrations and tragedies and everything in between. We show up so our readers can learn about pivotal events that affect their communities and their lives.

How important is local news to you? You can support independent, unbiased journalism and help iBerkshires grow for as a little as the cost of a cup of coffee a week.

News Headlines
Michael Cook Sr. Sentenced to 25 Years to Life
Weekend Outlook: Halloween Events, Ramblefest, and More
Clark Art Reflections Gallery Talk
1Berkshire's Berkshire Leadership Program Accepting Applications
Pittsfield Road Work: Holmes Road Sewer Extension
Adams Awarded Grant to Study the Removal of Fisk Street Dam
An Evening with Ted Tally: A Fundraiser for Images Cinema
Candidates for Third Berkshire Meet in Wide-Ranging Debate
Clarksburg Mulling Safe Routes Possibilities
PHS, Taconic Seniors Honored With Superintendent's Award
 
 


Categories:
@theMarket (503)
Independent Investor (452)
Retired Investor (211)
Archives:
October 2024 (3)
October 2023 (5)
September 2024 (7)
August 2024 (9)
July 2024 (8)
June 2024 (7)
May 2024 (10)
April 2024 (6)
March 2024 (7)
February 2024 (8)
January 2024 (8)
December 2023 (9)
November 2023 (5)
Tags:
Metals Stock Market Oil Euro Banks Europe Fiscal Cliff Bailout Markets Stimulus Selloff Japan Greece Federal Reserve Jobs Energy Retirement Recession Economy Interest Rates Unemployment Pullback Congress Taxes President Crisis Qeii Rally Debt Deficit Election Debt Ceiling Commodities Stocks Currency
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
Independent Investor: Europe's Banking Crisis
@theMarket: Let the Good Times Roll
The Independent Investor: Japan — The Sun Is Beginning to Rise
Independent Investor: Enough Already!
@theMarket: Let Silver Be A Lesson
Independent Investor: What To Expect After a Waterfall Decline
@theMarket: One Down, One to Go
@theMarket: 707 Days
The Independent Investor: And Now For That Deficit
Recent Entries:
The Retired Investor: Back to the Future in Nuclear Energy
@theMarket: A Week to Remember
The Retired Investor: Economic Storm Clouds Could Be Just Around the Corner
@theMarket: China Stimulus Boosts World Markets
The Retired Investor: My Economic Outlook into 2025
@theMarket: Fed's Half-Point Rate Cut Surprised Markets
The Retired Investor: Deals Coming Back in Some Consumer Areas
@theMarket: Fed Expected to Begin Interest Rate Cuts Next Week
The Retired Investor: Fewer Babies Threaten Future U.S. Economic Growth.
The Retired Investor: Precious Metals Normally Fall in September