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@theMarket: Jobs Jubilee

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires columnist
A funny thing happened before the market opened Friday morning. Jobless claims, which were supposed to come in at a loss of 8 million, actually did the reverse. Investors were stunned when the Department of Labor announced a gain of 2.5 million jobs. That was cause to celebrate.
 
Total nonfarm payrolls for the month of May revealed an overall unemployment rate of 13.3 percent, but that was a far cry from the 18.5 percent rate economists had expected. Indications from the most recent data argue that the re-opening of the economy is going far better than expected. That, combined with another $1 trillion in stimulus out of Congress that investors expect to be passed next month, sent stocks up over 2 percent on the opening.
 
This week, American Airlines also announced that they were planning on increasing their load capacity in July to 55 percent, which is a substantial jump from the airline's present capacity of 20 percent. Given that airlines (along with cruise ship companies) have taken the brunt of business losses during this pandemic, the news heartened the markets and also sent airline stocks in general up anywhere from 20 percent to 50 percent.
 
Over the last two weeks, given that the economic news has been better than expected, the rally from the March lows has started to spread out from a handful of "FANG" mega-cap, technology stocks to more economic-sensitive sectors like financials, industrials, and even basic material sectors. That was a good sign. The durability and confidence of bull market rallies increases as the breath of the market expands and more stocks participate in the upside. That is what is happening now.
 
Another indication that the worst may be over is that the bond market is starting to get back to normal. As stocks rise and the economy begins to revive, interest rates should start to move up (and bond prices fall). Of course, it is early days, and when I say rise that's really a relative term. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond, at 0.925 percent, is still yielding less than 1 percent.
 
The U.S. dollar (a traditional safe haven asset) has also weakened somewhat, which is another sign that investors around the world are starting to become more confident that things are improving. That is despite the fact that in places like Brazil the number of COVID-19 cases is still in an upward trajectory.
 
Gold has also taken it on the chin this week, falling almost 2.5 percent on Friday as investors dumped the precious metal for "risk-on" trades in the equity markets. As it stands, the S&P 500 Index (down 1 percent year-to-date) is still below its highs, while NASDAQ has regained its losses from the entire decline. As such, technology is taking a back seat in the last few days as other sectors play catch-up. That should continue. The question you may be asking is for how much longer.
 
In my last column, I outlined the importance and power of remaining above the 200 Day Moving Average (200 DMA) on the S&P 500 Index.  We did that and look, a week later we have gained almost 100 points. Can we go even higher?  I expect so. Look for the S&P 500 to hit 3,220-3,250 next week before pausing to catch its breath.
 

Bill Schmick is now the 'Retired Investor.' After working in the financial services business for more than 40 years, Bill is paring back and focusing exclusively on writing about the financial markets, the needs of retired investors like himself, and how to make your last 30 years of your life your absolute best. You can reach him at billiams1948@gmail.com or leave a message at 413-347-2401.

 

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The Retired Investor: Will Jobs Come Back Postpandemic?

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires columnist
As this week's job report looms ever closer, investors have become inured over data showing job losses in the multimillions. The present thinking among economists, strategists and politicians is that all these jobs will come back. The question is when.
 
Readers need to realize that prior to the onset of the pandemic, the unemployment rate at 3.5 percent was a historically low level. The spread of COVID-19 forced the country's economy to shut down. The first Americans to lose their jobs were those low-paid workers in the service industries, those that could not work from home. Fortunately, the government's response was to provide fiscal stimulus (in the form of extended and increased unemployment insurance), plus direct payments to those below a certain income level. That effort boosted household income and somewhat cushioned the pain of historical job losses. 
 
Many of those jobs in restaurants, retail stores, and the like are expected to come back as the economy re-opens and there is evidence that they already are. However, layoffs in other areas, such as white-collar jobs and among women, are continuing to escalate. In fact, white-collar jobs continue to shrink and have done so every week since the pandemic started.
 
One reason that Congress is working on yet another stimulus program is that once the impact of the last stimulus wears off, they worry that the layoffs could continue to spread. Consumer spending and a rebound in economic growth may take more time than most expect. From the outset, economists believed that many of the service jobs would come back. Those lay-offs were considered to be temporary, a "quasi-furlough," as opposed to an outright firing. However, the losses of the higher-paid, white-collar jobs that are continuing will be more difficult to gain back and could be permanent.
 
There is also another alarming unemployment trend facing the nation this summer.  The problem centers around working women with children. Readers may recall that for the first time in many years, women made up the majority of the workforce in 2019. As such, it should come as no surprise that during March and April of this year, women suffered the most (55 percent) job losses in this country. In those sectors that are heavily represented by women, the losses were even greater.
 
Recall my column of last month in which I outlined the one-sided difficulties working women were facing  in juggling work commitments, child care, home schooling, cooking, cleaning and a variety of other chores during this pandemic. None of those issues have gone away. In fact, they have multiplied. Online schooling, where it existed, has helped but it will end soon. As the summer begins, working women have no child-care support to rely on while they go back to work.
 
As it is, they are losing more jobs than men, and have, in general, less paid sick leave than their male counterparts. As school winds down, women are now being forced to make some hard choices. Do they quit their job (or possibly get laid off) because there is no one to take care of the kids this summer?  At the very least, they will be forced to scale back their professional ambitions, while continuing to balance an even more untenable situation between work and children.    
 
Well, you might ask, why don't their spouses, or male counterparts, stay home instead? The answer is an economic one. Women still make about 20 percent less than men, so an already cash-strapped family will need to opt for the man's higher salary. So what is to be done?
 
Although a long shot, government might finally recognize the needs of the working women, something I have been writing about for ages. The pandemic would be the perfect excuse to establish policies that would equalize the pay scale, provide additional child-care support, and institute flexible working arrangements, among other initiatives for women. Unfortunately, I expect that our government will likely cast a blind eye to these needs. So, it is up to us. What, therefore, can you do to help?
 
In our case, my wife and I (along with the other grandparents), are scheduling weekly internet dates with the grandkids throughout the summer.  We will set times and schedules, just like in summer camp. For starters, I will play (and probably lose) a weekly chess tournament with my 8-year-old grandson, chess champion Miles.  
 
In addition, my wife will begin a photography course for both Miles, and 5-year-old, Madeline. That summer project, in addition to teaching them the rudiments of photography, will hopefully result in a photo book of this pandemic from their own perspective. Now, it is your turn.   
 

Bill Schmick is now the 'Retired Investor.' After working in the financial services business for more than 40 years, Bill is paring back and focusing exclusively on writing about the financial markets, the needs of retired investors like himself, and how to make your last 30 years of your life your absolute best. You can reach him at billiams1948@gmail.com or leave a message at 413-347-2401.

 

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