@theMarket: 'Where January Goes, So Goes the Market'
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Yet, the president's stimulus package is right around the corner and, with luck, will pass by Presidents Day (see my column "One for the Little Guy"). That should give the economy a boost although don't look for anything immediately. It will take time for all that new spending to show up in the economic numbers.
In the meantime be prepared for disturbing numbers in the months ahead. The preliminary estimate for fourth-quarter GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was announced Friday — down 3.8 percent — the largest drop since 1982. The markets were actually relieved it wasn't worse. Consensus forecasts from the majority of economists polled indicated as much as a 5.5 percent decline.
Unfortunately, the difference was in the buildup of unsold goods called inventory gains. Companies are now sitting on a huge stockpile of goods — everything from refrigerators to automobiles — while you and I are on a spending strike. It doesn't take a fortune teller to figure out what happens next. Companies will ratchet down the rate of production of additional goods. That will mean less sales, profits and, yes, additional layoffs so expect an equally poor showing in this first quarter of 2009 and most likely for the one after that.
It is hard to believe that on the unemployment front things could get worse but so far this month over 233,000 jobs were cut and those are the ones the bigger firms have announced. How many more jobs have been lost among smaller companies is anyone's guess but I am prepared for at least 10 percent if not higher unemployment by June. However, unemployment and GDP are what we call lagging economic indicators (signs of what has already happened).
The future, although murky at best, may see some first glimmer of a pickup by the second half of the year. At least that is what the Federal Reserve is hoping for, although they did say there were many risks to that forecasts.
I wrote last week that volatility has returned to global markets with daily moves of 2 to 3 percent. That is not a healthy sign and certainly does not indicate that we have reached a bottom. Trading volume also remains fairly weak, which is a sign that many investors are sitting on the sidelines. I can't blame them.
The stock markets have become a daily casino where day traders bet on the black in the morning, red midway through the day and end back on the black at the close. The S&P 500 has had the worst January in its history. When all is said and done, the S&P 500 is almost exactly where it was in the beginning of December.
In markets like this, the only avenue in my opinion is income and interest-bearing investments. My advice is to stick to that plan and keep cash on the sidelines until this market finally bottoms. We are now in our 14th month of declines. Hopefully, at some point soon, the bears will simply run out of ammunition and the markets will flatten out in exhaustion.
As for the January Effect, it is not the only indicator. The Super Bowl is another market indicator and it is coming up on Sunday (see last year's column "Myths of the Market" for more indicators). If the winner of the Super Bowl, so the legend goes, can trace its origins back to the old NFL, it would mean a positive year for the markets.
So take heart, dear reader, both teams competing this year qualify for the old NFL so whoever wins, the markets could move higher if this indicator works. So enjoy the game and hope for the best.
Bill Schmick is a licensed investment adviser representative and portfolio strategist as well as a registered financial planner with Berkshire-based Dion Money Management, which manages more than $500 million for middle-class Americans from coast to coast. Direct your inquires to Bill at
1-877-850-7942
, Ext. 146, (toll-free) or e-mail him at wschmick@dionmm.com. You can also visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insight.
