Saturday, May 18, 2013 09:29pm
North Adams, MA now: 59 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
Independent Investor: Europe Goes the Full Monty
By: Bill Schmick On: 11:24PM / Thursday July 21, 2011
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
0

Full Monty: "everything which is necessary, appropriate, or possible; 'the works.'"    

— Oxford English Dictionary

A new rescue plan for Greece is being hammered out in Brussels today, Thursday. Although the details are yet to be released, it appears that the European Community is finally going for an overall plan that will do more than just Band-Aid over the debt crisis of southern Europe.

Greece, of course, is the bad boy of that continent but Ireland, Portugal and even larger economies like Spain and Italy are being added to the list of troubled nations. Up until now, the EU has grudgingly provided bailout money in exchange for economic austerity measures that have only driven these countries into deeper recessions and increased social discontent.

The new aid package to be announced will be a departure from this bankrupt strategy. Instead, the EU will tackle the root cause of the issue and reduce the overwhelming debt burdens of Greece, Portugal and Ireland. It will allow the EU's rescue fund, called the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), not only to buy that debt but also reissue new debt (loans) at much lower interest rates. It could also extend the maturities on new loans to these countries from an average of 7.5 years to 15 years or more.

The EFSF will also be able to aid troubled banks by lending money to various euro-zone governments (who will then bail out their banks) pre-emptively. No longer will governments have to wait for the crisis to hit before doing something about it. The EFSF will also be able to buy and sell sovereign debt of any of these countries on the open market in cooperation with the European Central Bank. That should discourage rampant speculation in these instruments, which has exasperated the crisis.

These moves, which were all rejected by Germany up until now, will form the basis of the equivalent of a Marshal Plan for Europe. I believe it is the best plan yet to address the financial contagion that has been pulling down one country after another within the EU. By reducing existing debt to manageable proportions and giving the beleaguered nations breathing room to repay it over many more years, the burden becomes more manageable. No longer will Greece, Portugal and Ireland have to slash spending and raise taxes while scrambling to find a way to pay back the loans and grow their economies all at the same time.

I had maintained that it was impossible to accomplish that feat. Readers may recall that over the last year I have been writing (and hoping) that the EU would see the light. This program, while not exactly the route I would have taken, is far more comprehensive than their past plans of simply kicking the can down the road.

An important change, and one that the European Central Bank had been resisting, is the possibility of allowing a "selective" default occur in Greek government debt. How that would happen is still not clear but it might include a bond-exchange program, a write-down of some of the debt or a buy back by the EFSF of a portion, say 20 percent, of heavily discounted Greek bonds.

The markets have been wrestling with just how such a default would impact Europe's banks, which hold billions of Euros in the sovereign debt obligations of the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain). Will a "selective" default of some Greek debt trigger the credit agencies to move toward a more negative stance on EU banks? If today’s prices of European bank stocks are any indication, the markets believe that there is a plan to avoid the credit agency's wrath.

All we know at this time is that private institutions in the financial sector will be given a number of alternative methods on how to assist in financing Greece's debt now and in the future. Some of the ways this can be accomplished are debt exchanges, roll overs and/or buy backs of existing debt.

I am sure that the details will need to be ironed out and, as usually happens with a plan this large, it will be a work in progress with lots of trial and error. What is important is that Europe's leaders have finally come to understand that the theatre we have been watching for almost two years needed drastic changes. The solution to the Greek financial crisis demanded that the actors revisit the stage with a new act. This week they have responded with an economic Fully Monty. I say, Bravo!  

Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or e-mail him at wschmick@fairpoint.net . Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.



0Comments
Tags: Greece, PIGS, bailout, Europe      
News Headlines
County First Responders Honored For 'Saves'
Ashuwillticook Rail Trail Expansion Discussed at Forum
Berkshires Students Compete at State Latin Convention
Rudolf Steiner School Fourth-Graders Poetry to Publish
iBerkshire Tag Sales: May 18 &19
Williamstown Zoning Board Looks at Weston Field Plan
BArT Announces Second Trimester Honor Roll
Cultural Pittsfield: May 17-23
River Council Grills EPA on Silver Lake Cleanup
Group Nears Goal of Purchasing Williamstown Pool
Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (102)
Independent Investor (137)
Archives:
May 2013 (5)
May 2012 (3)
April 2013 (6)
March 2013 (7)
February 2013 (7)
January 2013 (6)
December 2012 (8)
November 2012 (4)
October 2012 (6)
September 2012 (8)
August 2012 (7)
July 2012 (6)
June 2012 (9)
Tags:
Stock Market Election Euro Jobs Debt Ceiling Interest Rates Recession Banks Greece Crisis Metals Pullback Oil Federal Reserve Fiscal Cliff Europe Markets Economy Bailout Qeii Markets Europe Energy Debt Fed Deficit Stimulus Currency Rally Unemployment Congress Japan Commodities Retirement Taxes
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: 1995 Redux?
The Independent Investor: Sticker Shock in Housing Market
The Independent Investor: Online Education Is Not a Panacea
@theMarket: The Goldilocks Market
The Independent Investor: Where Others Fear to Tread
@theMarket: Five for Five
The Independent Investor: R2D2 and the Stock Market
The Independent Investor: Insider Trading Alive & Kicking on Capitol Hill
The Independent Investor: Japan: The Rising Sun, Part II
@theMarket: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back


View All
McCann Tech High Prom 2013
5/18/13 McCann Tech High School held its senior prom...
MCLA Graduation 2013
MCLA held the 2013 commencement on Saturday.
Mount Everett High Prom 2013
5/17/13 Mount Everett High School held its senior prom...
Third Thursday May 2013
Third Thursdays returned this week. The Pittsfield festival...
Softball: Drury at Pittsfield
5/16/13 The Drury girls softball team traveled to...
Torchia SB League
5/15/13 The Pat Torchia Softball League, played Wednesday...
Williams College Children...
Jennifer Marlowe's prekindergarten class visited North...
LAX: Mt. Anthony at Greylock
The Mount Greylock girl's lacrosse team took on visiting...
Girl's LAX: Wahconah at...
5/14/13 The Wahconah girls lacrosse team traveled to Hoosac...
Baseball: Monument at...
Mount Greylock rallied from down five runs to beat visiting...
LAX: Lee at Greylock
Mount Greylock took down visiting Lee 21-2 on Friday...
Lenox High Prom 2013
5/10/13 Lenox High School held its senior prom Friday at...
Softball: Drury at Greylock
Mount Greylock took on visiting Drury on Friday afternoon...
2013 BAM Con
The 2013 Berkshire Anime and Manga Convention kicked off...
Bike to School Day
Seventeen pupils from Clarksburg participated in Bike to...
Berkshire County Educator...
Educators, families and officials from across the county...
McCann Tech High Prom 2013
5/18/13 McCann Tech High School held its senior prom...
MCLA Graduation 2013
MCLA held the 2013 commencement on Saturday.
Mount Everett High Prom 2013
5/17/13 Mount Everett High School held its senior prom...
Third Thursday May 2013
Third Thursdays returned this week. The Pittsfield festival...
Softball: Drury at Pittsfield
5/16/13 The Drury girls softball team traveled to...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings | Berkshires Map |
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-473-8799
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved