Home About Archives RSS Feed

@theMarket: Day Traders Rule the Markets

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires Columnist

What a week of volatility! The Dow was up or down 100 points or more every day while the other averages were equally as volatile. Brace yourself, because October should be just as crazy.

Pick your poison: the presidential debate, fears of a global banking crisis, a spike in oil — all of them provided a field day for short-term traders. Of course to profit, one must have known who would win the debate, that OPEC would come to a tentative agreement to cut production, and that the largest bank in Germany would experience even more financial difficulties.

I wrote last week that politics would impact the markets this month. The first presidential debate saw the market drop double-digits on Monday, only to recoup its losses on Tuesday, as the market determined that Clinton had won the debate. How they determined that was less important than the money that was made believing it.

OPEC also met this week in Geneva. The betting was that the members would not (or could not) come to an agreement. Traders expected that the oil price would crater once the meeting ended in disappointment — wrong! Oil shot up in price over 5 percent as OPEC members agreed to work out a production cut among its membership before their next meeting in November.

The news caught quite a few day traders and proprietary trading desks of big financial concerns flat-footed. As the smoke cleared, stocks rose even higher following the gains in oil.

Just a few hours later, Bloomberg News reported that several nervous hedge funds were pulling their money out of Deutsche Bank, Europe's largest financial institution. The bank's stock price has been dropping steadily, (down over 50 percent) on concerns that Europe's negative interest rates were decimating the bank's business.

Suddenly, memories of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which precipitated the 2008 Financial Crisis, roiled the markets. All three U.S. indexes dropped in a panic led by financial stocks.

By Friday, some common sense returned to the markets. The economic and subsequent financial crisis of 2010-2013 shook Europe to its core. In response, the EU and the ECB established a series of safe guards among its banks to prevent a repeat of this kind of crisis.

As a result, even if Germany's largest lender is truly in dire straits, there are certain financial requirements that every European bank must adhere to. In this case, Deutsche bank has about $264 billion in liquidity reserves. The bank also has enough liquid reserves to cover 120 percent of the bank’s obligations for the next 30 days, no matter how severe the stress.

There have also been wild rumors of a bank bailout, plus a half-dozen more stories that cannot be substantiated. They do, however, make for some lucrative trading opportunities by high frequency traders. Don't get sucked into this drama.

My own opinion is that financial stocks around the world were already selling at bargain-basement valuations. This scare makes them even more attractive, if you are willing to hold them long enough. Remember, too, it is also the last week of the month and the last day of the quarter, when a lot of funny business usually occurs (it's called window-dressing).

October is upon us and the next election debate is on Oct. 9, when the vice presidential candidates meet. Batten down the hatches and prepare for the worst. That way, when things go better than expected, you will be pleasantly surprised. As for me, I will be temporarily out of commission for the next few weeks. I am getting a left-knee replacement, but should be back in action before the election. In the meantime, do nothing until you hear from me.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

Write a comment - 0 Comments            

The Independent Investor: Dementia & Your portfolio

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires Columnist

As more Baby Boomers reach retirement age, few elderly investors are willing to discuss a growing risk to their portfolio. The onset of diminished mental capacity can cause huge losses in your life savings. Many only realize the problem in hindsight. Don't let that happen to you.

The facts are concerning. For example, one in nine people, age 65 or older, suffer from some form of dementia. That skyrockets to one in two people over the age of 85. What's worse, there are at least 18 different diseases that bring on dementia. Alzheimer's disease is only the most prevalent of causes. No one can predict who will get this disease, but we do know that the older we get the higher the risk.

If you have been reading my columns on estate planning, you know by now that a visit to an estate planning attorney is in order.  It is true that most investors with significant assets have already made wills, set up trusts and in other ways made plans to protect their money after death. In many cases, they have also set up a power of attorney to manage their affairs in the event of illness or when they can no longer manage their money themselves.

The problem with all of the above is that none of it safeguards you against an early onset of dementia. Only you can detect it, but even then, your mind can be telling you something different and usually does. It is a serious problem, since one out of seven us have it and may not know it. For investors, especially self-directed investors, this can result in disastrous investment decisions.

But what about your loved ones, won't they know? Unfortunately, unless you have actually lived through this process with a relative or friend, chances are they won't recognize what is occurring unless you tell them. I have had clients who have managed to conceal how poorly they are functioning from those they live with while continuing to make increasingly poor investment decisions as their brains atrophy.

My experiences with my own mother have taught me just how insidious this process can be. Our family assumed that dementia could be identified by the amount of things my Mom forgot, but we were wrong. There are many ways dementia can manifest itself and loss of memory is only one of them. In vascular dementia, for example, where the victim experiences a series of micro-strokes, other more important issues start to impact the brain. Loss of judgment, impulse control and emotional imbalance are several other conditions that can crop up even before memory loss.

All of the above can have a devastating impact on your portfolio. In some cases, an investor with early onset dementia can experience excessive fear or rage. Although prudent all their life, some investors will begin to take on excessive risk with their portfolios. Others will panic at the first down period in the markets and sell everything. Some lose their hard-won skepticism and will trust perfect strangers with easy-money con games.

Unfortunately, most loved ones realize that something is wrong only after the fact. It is far easier to suspect dementia when someone cannot find their way home. But it is far more difficult to identify within the financial world, especially if you have been making investment decisions on your own for many years.

How can you protect yourself from this risk? First, monitor your own investment behavior. If you detect that there have been recent shifts (either more greed or fear) in how you approach the markets - be on guard. Make sure you talk to your loved ones concerning these changes and ask them to keep an eye on your behavior. If they admit that they do see a change, don't get angry, get help. Go to your doctor and admit your fears. Better to lose a little pride than half of your life-savings.

On a different note, I will be missing in action over the next few weeks, getting my left knee replaced. Look for me again in November.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

Write a comment - 0 Comments            

@theMarket: The Same Old Song

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires Columnist

Investors have been waiting all year for that elusive interest rate hike promised by our central bank. September proved to be another false start. Once again, markets rallied on the news, the dollar fell, and investors were happy. So what's new?

As we have written so many times in the past, investors and markets are fixated on a Fed rate hike. Now everyone's attention is on December. Janet Yellen, the Fed chieftain, indicated that she could see at least one rate hike this year — if the data warrants it. The problem is the economic numbers are, at best, inconclusive.

Even the central bank, in this last go-around at the FOMC, lowered its forecast for the future, long-term, growth rate of the U.S. economy. Back in 2011, it forecast a 2.5 percent growth rate. Then lowered it to 2 percent in June and now sees no more than 1.8 percent. That sure doesn't sound like we are going in the right direction.

Furthermore, the Fed's inflation target, which is slightly above 2 percent, has been stuck below that number for years and it does not appear that it will climb anytime soon. You might ask if inflation is contained and economic growth is slowing, why in the world would the Fed raise rates.

The only bright stop seems to be the employment gains we have experienced in the last few years. Even in that area, there has been some dissatisfaction with the quality of jobs the economy has been generating. The number of workers who are either underemployed or have given up looking for a job altogether skew the statistics. The only reason I can see for the Fed to raise rates is to answer Wall Street's demand for a return to "normalization."

That's financial speak for getting the Fed out of the financial markets. Free marketers want the Fed to return to the days when they were not trying to support stocks, bonds, and even commodities as well as overseas markets. I truly doubt the Fed was ever that hands-off when it came to control, but they have been more heavy-handed in their approach to the markets since 2009 and with good cause.

As I have written many times before, the unprecedented lack of any kind of fiscal stimulus out of Washington has resulted in the failure of the U.S. economy to gain any momentum. The Fed knows that and the market knows that. But we all choose to blame the Fed instead.

In the meantime, we are dancing to the same old song. Fed members say "maybe" and the market swoons, followed by no rate cut and the market rallies. Equities remain the only game in town. It's simple: the S&P 500 Index is yielding 3 percent while the ten-year U.S. Treasury note is giving you less than 2 percent. Investors will go where they get the most return.

It also means that volatility will continue. It is why I am advising you to hang in there and ignore the ups and downs. A week ago (before the Fed decision), the markets were prepared for further downside. Today, we are once again approaching the highs of the year — until we hear from the next hawkish Fed member. But remember, a rate hike will be data dependent. It doesn't matter what one or another Fed member might think, so try and ignore the chatter.

Monday night we will also be treated to the first presidential debate. I am sure that will impact the markets, unless the event is a washout for both sides. Since we are approaching the final lap in that race, the polls will be monitored daily. If Clinton's lead over Trump narrows as a result, expect a tantrum from the market. And so it goes.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

Write a comment - 0 Comments            

The Independent Investor: The Impact of One Bad Apple

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires Columnist

For years, the mantra of Corporate America has been that they are drowning in government rules and regulations. Small business has echoed that refrain, as has Wall Street. The problem is that these same entities continually shoot themselves in the foot.

Over the last two weeks, thanks to Wells Fargo in the banking sector, and Mylan Labs in pharmaceuticals, Corporate America has once again reminded us of that business just can't be trusted. In the case of Wells Fargo, over 2 million fictitious customer accounts were opened over several years in order to meet sales goals.

Critics say Mylan Labs' 500 percent increase (since 2007) in the cost of a device called EpiPen that treats severe allergic reactions is simply another case of rampant greed within the drug industry. They are not alone. Gilead Sciences and Valeant Pharmaceuticals have both been caught instituting similar price hikes on some of their drugs. And who can forget Martin Shkreli, the former head of Turing pharmaceuticals, who jacked up the price of a life-saving drug, Daraprim, from $13.50 to $750 per tablet (while giving the finger to all of us on tape).

Not only has the public reacted with anger over these incidents, but it has kept the idea alive that existing rules and regulations are justified. What's worse is that many politicians will use these events to pile even more restrictions on the nation's corporations.

Hell hath no fury compared to a politician with a meaty issue in an election year. Senators from both parties jostled for air time on Tuesday during a hearing over Wells Fargo's indiscretions. To say that Wells' chief executive officer was trashed up one side and down the other would be an understatement.

CEO John Stumpf, once the "pretty boy" of the financial industry, due to his company's relatively clean bill of health during the financial crisis, was vilified for going easy on the bank's leadership while firing thousands of lower-level workers. Legislatures used terms like "gutless leadership", "fraud" and "out of touch" executives to decry management's response to the scandal.

Next week, it is Mylan Lab's turn to testify before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Heather Bresch, the CEO of the massive pharmaceutical company, will be on the hot seat. Politicians running for re-election will be vying for the microphone. Expect to hear how she and her company are guilty of price gouging among other charges.

While the hearings and their aftermath might provide entertaining reading, the consequences of these cases of corporate greed may have far-reaching effects on all of our industries.  There is a great deal of truth in the complaints of many businessmen, especially small businessmen, that Federal, state and local regulations are making it almost impossible to run a profitable business, but at the same time, one bad apple after another pops up justifying the chains that bind the entire cart.

After the 2009 financial crisis, a flood of new regulations and reforms swamped the banking industry. The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act were signed into law in 2010. Among other things, it created yet another agency: the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

The Federal Reserve was given more power as were a slew of other governmental agencies. Lending practices, reserve requirements, trading restrictions and countless more new regulations were foisted on the banking industry. The idea behind this avalanche of rules and regulations were to ensure that "never again" will Americans be subjected to these "too big to fail" bailouts.

Hillary Clinton has already promised to deal with these outrageous pricing issues in the drug sector. As such, does anyone want to guess the chances of reducing regulations on either the pharmaceutical or banking industry? As long as industry continues to shoot itself in the foot, what else can one expect?

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

Write a comment - 0 Comments            

@theMarket: Much Ado About Nothing

By Bill Schmick
iBerkshires Columnist

It has been a volatile week in the markets. The averages have rocketed up and down by a percent or more as traders bet for and against a Fed move on interest rates next week. Does it matter?

If you aren't tired after more than two years of reading what the Fed may or may not do, you have the patience of Job. Whether an interest rate hike happens next week during the FOMC meeting or in December should not mean much to the market. But it does.

When fully 70 percent or more of daily trading activity is now in the hands (or keyboards) of high-frequency traders (HFT), short-term moves are where they make most of their money. During the summer months, they practically starved to death while the markets did little to nothing. Now HFT is making up for lost time.

Granted, in many ways, the stock market is priced for perfection, given that the markets are only 3 percent off historical highs. There are few investments outside of stocks that can give you a decent return nowadays. The fact that interest rates are so low has a lot to do with that. Any change, no matter how small, in interest rates is meaningful at the margin.

Sure, a 25 basis point hike in the Fed Funds rate may not seem like a lot (and it isn't when it comes to the economy). But it does tilt the financial apple cart. And if one apple falls, who's to say that won't cause a chain reaction?  If enough apples are impacted, could the entire apple cart tip over?

Many traders believe that is exactly what happened last December when the Fed initially hiked rates. The stock market had a temper tantrum in January and February that resulted, at its worst, in a 13 percent decline. Of course, the markets have come back since then and gone on to new highs.

If history is any guide, and the Fed does raise rates before the end of the year, we could see the same sort of sell-off. But like the declines in January and February, they would not be a reason to sell. If anything, I would be a buyer of such a move. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

September and October are notoriously volatile months in the stock market. So far that historical trend is solidly intact. Since the Federal Open Market Committee meeting is on the 21st of September, which is next Wednesday, we should see this volatility continue until at least that date. I suspect, however, that regardless of what the Fed decides, the markets will continue to stay volatile.

Whether true or false, investors have it in their head that the Fed will raise rates, if not now, then in December.  And since markets usually discount news six to nine months out, I believe there is more downside ahead as markets adjust to an expected rate hike. Readers may recall that I have been looking for a pull-back in the single digit range and it appears that we are in that process now. Buy that does not necessarily mean a straight down market; we could even see a return to the old highs at some point before falling back.

It might be a drawn-out process that occurs between now and the election with plenty of peaks and valleys. Remember that Wall Street believes Hillary Clinton will win the election. Until recently, the polls gave her a substantial margin, confirming those expectations. As Donald Trump narrows that lead, these same investors will start to get nervous. Nervous leads to caution, caution leads to selling. There is no telling how close the election will become but the closer it is the more potential downside is in the offing.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

Write a comment - 0 Comments            
Page 1 of 101 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11 ... 101  
News Headlines
CYC Basketball Program Continues With YMCA Administration
New Mural Unveiled on Adams Wastewater Treatment Plant
Mount Greylock School Maintains Level 1 Ranking
Adams Harvest Fest This Weekend
Williams Physics Professor Wins Undergraduate Research Prize
Southwestern Vermont Health Care's Harvest Ball Raises Record Donations
MCLA Alumni Association Announces 2016 Awards
Community Build Starts On New Playground at Durant Park
New Berkshire Theatre Awards Program Names Winners
Major Gift Provides Support for Clark's New Works on Paper Gallery

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.




@theMarket (213)
Independent Investor (294)
October 2016 (1)
October 2015 (4)
September 2016 (9)
August 2016 (5)
July 2016 (7)
June 2016 (7)
May 2016 (5)
April 2016 (7)
March 2016 (8)
February 2016 (5)
January 2016 (5)
December 2015 (6)
November 2015 (6)
Retirement Deficit Stocks Federal Reserve Greece Taxes Markets Rally Jobs Recession Wall Street Stimulus Stock Market Economy Election Debt Currency Bailout Crisis Metals Congress Debt Ceiling Selloff Euro Banks Japan Energy Housing Commodities Fiscal Cliff Europe Interest Rates Oil Pullback Europe
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: Day Traders Rule the Markets
The Independent Investor: Dementia & Your portfolio
@theMarket: The Same Old Song
The Independent Investor: The Impact of One Bad Apple
@theMarket: Much Ado About Nothing
The Independent Investor: Woman Need to Invest More
@theMarket: Markets Get Back to Business
The Independent Investor: The VA — If It Isn't Broke, Don't Fix It
@theMarket: A Tale of Two Interest Rates
The Independent Investor: The VA — Political Football