Wednesday, January 28, 2015 01:13pm
North Adams, MA now: 16 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
@theMarket: Precious Metals Gain While Stocks Mark Time
By: Bill Schmick On: 03:38PM / Saturday September 18, 2010
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
0

As investors waited for stocks to make up their mind, gold and silver took off this week. Gold made new highs while silver's price level is higher than at any time since 1980. The question is will stocks follow that lead or fall back as they have the last two times the S&P 500 reached this level.

Up until this week, most people (including myself) were betting the market would roll over for a third time and head back to the lows or make new lows. However, thanks to recent economic data that has shed a more positive light on the health of the economy, bullish sentiment among investors has increased to slightly over 50 percent, the highest reading in two years, according to the American Association of Individual Investors. But before you start jumping up and down just three weeks ago those same fickle investors registered the second largest bearish stance in two years. It just indicates how confused we all are about the future direction of the stock market.

In addition, most of us have a trust issue with this market. According to a recent AP-CNBC poll, nearly 90 percent of investors with less than $50,000 and 75 percent of those with $250,000 to invest, believe the stock market is unfair to the little guy. One indication of that sentiment is the continued light volume. Normally after Labor Day volume increases, but the opposite has occurred. That's another sign that market participants are not willing to be burnt a third time. So far this attempt to break out of this four-month trading range has been skittish at best.

All week the market has inched up and down tentatively extending its reach upwards without actually touching the 1,130 level on the S&P. Even if it breaks that level, there is no guarantee that it won't swoon sometime in October. With this much negative sentiment, the contrarian in me is whispering "what if."

What if the markets confound us all and do break out? I must confess that based on the recent economic data and the market's ability to hold the lows over the past few months, I've decided to give stocks the benefit of the doubt here in the short term. However, I am in the "show me" camp. I won't trust this market until I see volume expand and volatility begin to dampen down.

Regardless of what the market does now, I still want to keep some powder dry (cash) at least into October. Further out, I expect a rebound in stock markets which could last for the next two or three quarters.

This is not rocket science. Historically (since 1900) markets do better after mid-term elections, with the uptrend continuing through the first and second quarter of the following year. Couple that history with a growing probability that the GOP will regain sufficient seats in Washington and you have the ingredients for higher markets in the future.

As readers know, I have never believed in a double-dip recession and I have been expecting the economic numbers to improve as more stimulus money is spent and the economy strengthens. That appears to be happening, which will give some fundamental support to my forecast of the market's expected gains.



1 Comments
Tags: metals, recession, volume      
News Headlines
North Adams Little League Sets Sign-Up Dates
Cheshire Considers Joining BRPC Pipeline Group
North Adams Housing Agency Finds Potential Buyers For Properties
Area Religious Groups Join Social Justice Efforts in New Organization
Pancake Breakfast Slated To Help Lanesborough Firefighter Beat Cancer
Williams Students Aim to Break Record Lego Build Time
Williamstown — Finally — Decides on Town Flag
Berkshire Youth Wrestling Club Set to Host Sectional
Pittsfield Residents Wary of Taconic High School Cost
Lanesborough Voters Will Be Asked to Decide School Affiliations

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (158)
Independent Investor (213)
Archives:
January 2015 (8)
January 2014 (1)
December 2014 (7)
November 2014 (4)
October 2014 (9)
September 2014 (5)
August 2014 (7)
July 2014 (2)
June 2014 (6)
May 2014 (9)
April 2014 (8)
March 2014 (6)
February 2014 (6)
Tags:
Currency Deficit Euro Bailout Pullback Greece Commodities Interest Rates Fiscal Cliff Energy Congress Economy Federal Reserve Jobs Recession Europe Japan Debt Ceiling Markets Debt Stimulus Taxes Housing Banks Fed Retirement Europe Crisis Oil Selloff Rally Metals Election Stock Market Stocks
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: More Stimuli Equal Higher Markets
The Independent Investor: The European Central Bank Delivers
@theMarket: Tail That Wagged the Dog
The Independent Investor: What's Happening to the Movies?
@theMarket: What Will the New Year Bring?
The Independent Investor: Think twice Before Co-Signing Student Loan
@theMarket: What Will the New Year Bring?
The Independent Investor: Could Greece Upset the Applecart?
@theMarket: Santa Comes to Town
The Independent Investor: IRA Distribution Time


View All
Berkshire County UCP Telethon
United Cerebral Palsy of Berkshire County held its 52nd and...
Girls BB: Athol vs Hoosac...
McKenzie Robinson dished out nine assists to help the...
Swimming: Wahconah vs St....
Liz Bernardy won the 100-yard freestyle and 200 individual...
Boys BB: Drury vs Hoosac...
Friday night basketball, Drury boys win over Hoosac Valley...
Girls BB: Lee vs Mount...
Barrett scored a game-high 27 points in Thursday's 57-44...
Boys BB: Smith Academy vs...
The Pittsfield boys' basketball team defeated Smitch...
North Adams Chamber @...
The North Adams Chamber of Commerce held its first...
Hockey: St Mary's vs Wahconah
The Wahconah hockey team defeated St. Mary's Wednesday...
Berkshire Chamber @GFCU
Berkshire Chamber of Commerce held its January networking...
Boys BB: Wahconah vs Drury
The Wahconah boys basketball team was able to pull away and...
Boys BB: Hoosac Valley vs...
Jerry McDonough scored 14 points and went 4-for-6 at the...
Girls BB: Wahconah vs Lenox
The Wahconah girls basketball team got back on track with a...
Girls BB: Hoosac Valley vs Mt...
Hoosac used 25 points and 11 rebounds from Emily Rosse to...
Co-ed XC Skiing
The Mount Greylock cross country ski team had the home...
Girls BB: Millbrook vs Miss...
Grace Guachione scored 19 of her 22 points in the first...
Girls BB: Pittsfield vs...
The Pittsfield girls basketball team defeated Wahconah...
Berkshire County UCP Telethon
United Cerebral Palsy of Berkshire County held its 52nd and...
Girls BB: Athol vs Hoosac...
McKenzie Robinson dished out nine assists to help the...
Swimming: Wahconah vs St....
Liz Bernardy won the 100-yard freestyle and 200 individual...
Boys BB: Drury vs Hoosac...
Friday night basketball, Drury boys win over Hoosac Valley...
Girls BB: Lee vs Mount...
Barrett scored a game-high 27 points in Thursday's 57-44...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved