Saturday, October 25, 2014 12:04pm
North Adams, MA now: 55 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
@theMarket: Precious Metals Gain While Stocks Mark Time
By: Bill Schmick On: 03:38PM / Saturday September 18, 2010
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
0

As investors waited for stocks to make up their mind, gold and silver took off this week. Gold made new highs while silver's price level is higher than at any time since 1980. The question is will stocks follow that lead or fall back as they have the last two times the S&P 500 reached this level.

Up until this week, most people (including myself) were betting the market would roll over for a third time and head back to the lows or make new lows. However, thanks to recent economic data that has shed a more positive light on the health of the economy, bullish sentiment among investors has increased to slightly over 50 percent, the highest reading in two years, according to the American Association of Individual Investors. But before you start jumping up and down just three weeks ago those same fickle investors registered the second largest bearish stance in two years. It just indicates how confused we all are about the future direction of the stock market.

In addition, most of us have a trust issue with this market. According to a recent AP-CNBC poll, nearly 90 percent of investors with less than $50,000 and 75 percent of those with $250,000 to invest, believe the stock market is unfair to the little guy. One indication of that sentiment is the continued light volume. Normally after Labor Day volume increases, but the opposite has occurred. That's another sign that market participants are not willing to be burnt a third time. So far this attempt to break out of this four-month trading range has been skittish at best.

All week the market has inched up and down tentatively extending its reach upwards without actually touching the 1,130 level on the S&P. Even if it breaks that level, there is no guarantee that it won't swoon sometime in October. With this much negative sentiment, the contrarian in me is whispering "what if."

What if the markets confound us all and do break out? I must confess that based on the recent economic data and the market's ability to hold the lows over the past few months, I've decided to give stocks the benefit of the doubt here in the short term. However, I am in the "show me" camp. I won't trust this market until I see volume expand and volatility begin to dampen down.

Regardless of what the market does now, I still want to keep some powder dry (cash) at least into October. Further out, I expect a rebound in stock markets which could last for the next two or three quarters.

This is not rocket science. Historically (since 1900) markets do better after mid-term elections, with the uptrend continuing through the first and second quarter of the following year. Couple that history with a growing probability that the GOP will regain sufficient seats in Washington and you have the ingredients for higher markets in the future.

As readers know, I have never believed in a double-dip recession and I have been expecting the economic numbers to improve as more stimulus money is spent and the economy strengthens. That appears to be happening, which will give some fundamental support to my forecast of the market's expected gains.



1 Comments
Tags: metals, recession, volume      
News Headlines
Mount Greylock Debates Lanesborough School Union Vote
Adams Narrowing Down Town Administrator Applicants
North Adams Happenings: Oct. 21-28
Cultural Pittsfield This Week: Oct. 24-30
Atlas Private Wealth Management Moving to North Adams
Lanesborough Officials Debate School Spending
Adams Seeks Fix to Visitors Center's Ineffective Geothermal System
Mount Greylock Committee Taking Up Delayed Superintendent Search
North Adams to Williamstown Bike Path Public Meeting Set
Pittsfield Schools Review Teacher Evaluation Process

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (149)
Independent Investor (201)
Archives:
October 2014 (8)
October 2013 (1)
September 2014 (5)
August 2014 (7)
July 2014 (2)
June 2014 (6)
May 2014 (9)
April 2014 (8)
March 2014 (6)
February 2014 (6)
January 2014 (7)
December 2013 (8)
November 2013 (7)
Tags:
Interest Rates Taxes Debt Deficit Commodities Crisis Rally Pullback Greece Energy Federal Reserve Fiscal Cliff Markets Bailout Banks Japan Euro Jobs Debt Ceiling Congress Currency Oil Metals Housing Economy Fed Selloff Europe Election Stimulus Stock Market Europe Stocks Retirement Recession
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: All Clear
The Independent Investor: The Elephant in the Room
@theMarket: So far, So Good
The Independent Investor: OPEC's Oil Ploy
@theMarket: Are We There Yet?
The Independent Investor: Why Is This Recovery Different?
@theMarket: October Starts Off on High Note
The Independent Investor: Money & Divorce — What You Should Know
@theMarket: Wash, Rinse and Repeat
The Independent Investor: Is Wall Street Responsible for Climate Change?


View All
Soccer: Wahconah vs Lenox
Collin Parrott scored three times on Tuesday to lead the...
Girls Soccer: Wahconah vs...
Rachel Donahue scored with four minutes left to give the...
Football: Hoosac Valley vs...
Koperniak made the last play of the night, a 1-yard plunge...
Boys and Girls Cross Country
Boys and Girls Cross Country was held at Windsor Lake on...
Western Mass Golf
Four Berkshire County golfers qualified for the state...
Football: Franklin Tech vs...
McCann Tech holds on for the win Saturday afternoon. McCann...
Colegrove Park Elementary...
Mayor Richard Alcombright and the City Council were updated...
Boys and Girls Cross Country
Berkshire Chamber Greylock
Boys and Girls Cross Country
The Lenox boys and girls teams both cleaned up on Senior...
Volleyball: St. Joe s vs...
Taconic takes 3 from St. Joseph Tuesday night.
Ramblefest 2014
Adams residents enjoyed entertainment, food, and locally...
Girls Soccer: Hoosac Valley...
The Wahconah girls soccer team on Monday advanced to an...
Berkshire County Classic Golf
Francois Benistand, an exchange student from the south of...
Indashio Fashion Show
Fashion designer Indashio holds his second FAME Festival in...
Football: Pittsfield vs...
Senior quarterback Nick Clayton marched his team 80 yards...
Soccer: Wahconah vs Lenox
Collin Parrott scored three times on Tuesday to lead the...
Girls Soccer: Wahconah vs...
Rachel Donahue scored with four minutes left to give the...
Football: Hoosac Valley vs...
Koperniak made the last play of the night, a 1-yard plunge...
Boys and Girls Cross Country
Boys and Girls Cross Country was held at Windsor Lake on...
Western Mass Golf
Four Berkshire County golfers qualified for the state...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved