Tuesday, September 02, 2014 10:14am
North Adams, MA now: 77 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
@theMarket: What Were They Thinking?
By Bill Schmick On: 10:56AM / Saturday June 09, 2012
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
0
It was one of those "scratch your head" weeks on Wall Street. Markets rallied in anticipation that both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve were going to announce some kind of new stimulus. Investors walked away empty-handed.

In hindsight, the market's expectations made little sense. Why would European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi, speaking earlier this week, announce a new stimulus package prior to the outcome of Greek elections on June 17? If the moderates win, and there is a 50-50 chance they will, then there may be no need for any kind of immediate stimulus.

Granted, the declining economic picture in Greece certainly helps the anti-austerity, pro-growth, radical opposition party. Unemployment is now at 21.9 percent. The economy shrank yet again in the first quarter as a result of spending cuts and taxes. GDP is now declining at a 6.5 percent annual rate. But miracles do happen and the moderates could prevail in next Sunday's elections, despite the dreadful state of the country's economy. But the ECB is certainly going to refrain from doing anything that might influence that election — including any stimulus initiatives.

Here in America, the buzz was that Chairman Ben Bernanke was going to announce another stimulus package or extend the Fed's present stimulus "Operation Twist," (which ends at the end of this month). Once again I thought this kind of speculation was coming out of left field. In his testimony on Capitol Hill on Thursday, Bernanke delivered a carefully balanced view of the economy without any new stimulus announcements. Instead, he reiterated (as he has done in every Fed statement) that the central bank stands ready to intervene if necessary.

What both Bernanke and Draghi did say was there is a strong and immediate need for politicians on both continents to step up to the plate and deliver on their policy responsibilities. Reading between the lines, we should understand that central bank intervention (without fiscal action) becomes less and less effective. Bernanke said as much to his audience in the Q&A section of his appearance before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

Obviously the markets got it wrong this week, although the hope and a prayer stimulus stories did provide the excuse to push the S&P 500 index up almost 3 percent. To those expecting a snap-back rally, like me, the point is that the markets were oversold and due for a bounce; how we got there is immaterial.

So what happens next? As I said last week, we are getting close to a bottom. A good guess would be a low somewhere around 1,250 on the S&P 500 Index over the next few weeks. I'm sorry I can't be more precise, but it is a tough market and there are a lot of moving parts that aren't easy to decipher.

For example, China cut its key interest rate this week by 0.025 percent. Investors took that as a positive sign, hoping that it signaled a round of further cuts in the months ahead. Since growth in China (or the lack thereof) is vitally important to global growth prospects, investors were bolstered by the development. However, a slew of economic numbers are being released this weekend in China. Some China watchers worry that the data will be much worse than expected. If so, investors won't take kindly to that news on Monday.

Then there is the meeting this weekend between Spanish authorities and finance ministers of the EU. News sources believe that Spain will ask the EU's help in bailing out Spain's troubled banks. Bottom line: it is all noise that will insure that markets will remain volatile over the next week. Strap on your seat belts and welcome to summertime in the stock markets.

Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or e-mail him at wschmick@fairpoint.net . Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.





0 Comments
     
News Headlines
College, Criminal Processes for Sexual Assault Cases Not in Conflict
Pittsfield Board Approves Expansion For Pediatric Devleopment Center
MCLA Women's Soccer Falls to Albertus Magnus
Larabee, Giorgi Honored With 'Frankie' Awards
Former Finance Director Returns to Williamstown as Pastor
Armory Takes Lead in Torchia Softball League Final
Legislative Q&A: State Rep. William 'Smitty' Pignatelli
MCLA Women's Soccer Ties; Tennis, Volleyball, Men's Soccer Win
Holiday Hours: Labor Day
Clarksburg Weighing Bridge Plans, Preparing Special Town Meeting
Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (143)
Independent Investor (194)
Archives:
August 2014 (7)
July 2014 (2)
June 2014 (6)
May 2014 (9)
April 2014 (8)
March 2014 (6)
February 2014 (6)
January 2014 (7)
December 2013 (8)
November 2013 (7)
October 2013 (6)
September 2013 (6)
Tags:
Economy Taxes Debt Housing Deficit Markets Metals Stimulus Commodities Europe Federal Reserve Debt Ceiling Oil Euro Energy Stocks Fed Crisis Selloff Stock Market Pullback Bailout Japan Congress Retirement Banks Fiscal Cliff Rally Interest Rates Election Greece Currency Europe Recession Jobs
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: What's Up With Bonds?
The Independent Investor: Baby Boomers and Retiremen
@theMarket: Labor on Their Mind
The Independent Investor: Financing ISIS
@theMarket: Geopolitical Risk Trumps Economic Growth
The Independent Investor: Beware the Russian Bear
The Independent Investor: Why Some Corporations Are Leaving America
The Independent Investor: How Much Is Too Much to Spend in Retirement?
The Independent Investor: The Fed Turns Off the Spigot
The Independent Investor: Should You Pay Off Mortgage Before Retiring?


View All
Friday Soccer Scrimfest
Friday afternoon girls soccer 'Scrimfest' at Drury High...
Pignatelli Campaign Kickoff...
State Rep. William "Smitty" Pignatelli held a kick off...
Down Street Art
People flooded main street to see the new art installations...
Western Mass Beer Fest 2014
Hundreds turned out for the 9th annual Western Mass Beer...
High School Soccer
High School soccer practice got under way on Thursday.
Motorama
Hundreds of cars, trucks, motorcycles, snowmobiles and...
Chamber Nite @MountainOne
A who's who was at the MountainOne-hosted Berkshire Chamber...
Third Thursday Aug. 21, 2014
The August Third Thursday event in Pittsfield included a...
High School Football
High School football practice got under way on Monday.
Giorgi League Semis: B&B vs...
Burr and Burton held a steady lead over Bennington, Vt.'s,...
Giorgi League Semis: Drury vs...
Alex Heck scored 19 points to lead the Drury boys...
Mill Children Opening
The 5 Hoosac Street Gallery held its grand opening Friday...
Downtown Celebration 2014
North Adams held its annual street fair on Main Street on...
Worcester Bravehearts vs...
Key at bat helps the Worcester Bravehearts defeat the...
9th Annual Rock, Rattle &...
This year's theme is "Living in Harmony, Fulfilling Our...
Softball Series: Berkshire...
Friday Soccer Scrimfest
Friday afternoon girls soccer 'Scrimfest' at Drury High...
Pignatelli Campaign Kickoff...
State Rep. William "Smitty" Pignatelli held a kick off...
Down Street Art
People flooded main street to see the new art installations...
Western Mass Beer Fest 2014
Hundreds turned out for the 9th annual Western Mass Beer...
High School Soccer
High School soccer practice got under way on Thursday.
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved