Saturday, November 22, 2014 09:30am
North Adams, MA now: 21 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
@theMarket: Play it Again, Sam
By Bill Schmick On: 08:19AM / Saturday December 01, 2012
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
0

It was a week of tension. Markets rose and fell on every word uttered by party leaders, who jockeyed for position and the national spotlight around the Fiscal Cliff. It was Washington at its worst. Get used to it because this deal is going to go down to the wire.

Remember last year's Greek debt negotiations? It was a game of he said, she said that dragged on for months. We are playing the same song once again only on this side of the pond. I guess the best that can be said for this American version is that if nothing happens before Jan. 1 we all think we know the outcome.

But unlike Greece, where the country either received a bail-out or went bankrupt, this U.S. event would not be as dramatic, at least at first. If for some reason the politicians miss the deadline, it would take several days and even weeks before we feel the tax bite. As for the spending cuts, those draconian measures will be enacted piecemeal and over several years. Why is this important?

Well, the stock markets are acting like January first is a do or die event. It's not. Politicians can continue to agree to disagree; delay a compromise and either extend the deadline or let the country fall off the cliff (really a ditch) temporarily. They would still have time to come up with a solution sometime in 2013 without much impact to the economy.

But that kind of scenario would sell fewer newspapers and reduce the ratings on business shows. Brokers would have less to talk about and retirees, rather than being pinned to their televisions, could actually go out and do something productive like exercise or read a good book.

If you are in that stressed-out category, remember this. How much did all that angst over Greece help you? In the end, Greece did get a bail-out, their market is up 25 percent since then and the U.S. market is up substantially as well. So relax, will you?

Warren Buffet may not be right about everything but one reason I believe he is so successful and still in the business is because he takes a long-term view. Sure, time has become compressed. Fortunes have been made and lost in years rather than decades and it has become fashionable to “trade” the markets. I am as guilty as the next person, but only to a point.

In the past, we've had to refuse clients because we didn't see eye to eye when it came to investment style. They insisted we sell every down move in the market before it occurred and jump back in "at the right time," which for them, was before the markets moved back up.

"If I could do that," I explained. "I wouldn’t need to work. I could simply sit home, trade my own account and make a couple billion dollars a year."

Here's my take. The anxiety over this Fiscal Cliff is overblown. Focus instead on the increasingly positive economic data in the United States. In addition, I expect the Fed may announce further stimulus moves in the coming month. The stock market, which is trading around 13 times earnings, is fairly valued given a modest growth scenario. We may be underestimating that growth and prospects for a better 2013 than most people expect. Buy the dips.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.



0 Comments
     
News Headlines
Pittsfield Schools Grapple With Enrollment Drop
Williamstown-Lanesborough Tri-District Picks Interim Superintendent
Williams Volleyball Falls in NCAAs, Women's Basketball, Hockey Win
Mt. Greylock Announces First Quarter Honor Roll
Friends of St. Mary's Tour Endangered Pittsfield Church
Luma's and New Creperie May Open in North Adams
Adams Begins Interviews of Town Administrator Finalists
Cover for Retirement in Stages
Cultural Pittsfield This Week: Nov. 21-27
Northern Berkshire Santa Fund Kicks Off Annual Fund Drive

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (151)
Independent Investor (204)
Archives:
November 2014 (3)
November 2013 (3)
October 2014 (9)
September 2014 (5)
August 2014 (7)
July 2014 (2)
June 2014 (6)
May 2014 (9)
April 2014 (8)
March 2014 (6)
February 2014 (6)
January 2014 (8)
December 2013 (8)
Tags:
Taxes Deficit Fed Japan Bailout Commodities Markets Europe Debt Ceiling Oil Housing Debt Stimulus Currency Election Stocks Metals Europe Jobs Energy Euro Greece Crisis Stock Market Interest Rates Congress Banks Pullback Recession Economy Rally Fiscal Cliff Selloff Federal Reserve Retirement
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
The Independent Investor: The Pipeline Made Simple
@theMarket: Markets Are in Half Time
The Independent Investor: U.S. and China Square Off
The Independent Investor: Workers Get to Save More in 2015
@theMarket: All Clear
The Independent Investor: The Elephant in the Room
@theMarket: So far, So Good
The Independent Investor: OPEC's Oil Ploy
@theMarket: Are We There Yet?
The Independent Investor: Why Is This Recovery Different?


View All
St. Mary's Church Tour in...
Residents, business people, elected officials and Friends...
Williamstown's Mather House...
Traffic came to halt for several hours Wednesday morning as...
Girls Soccer: Nipmuc vs...
Although the Wahconah girls' season ended on Tuesday, its...
Boys Soccer: Belchertown vs...
Belchertown Downs Mount Greylock Boys in PKs
Football: Pittsfield vs...
Shade himself ended up taking it in from the 1 on third and...
Football: Turners Falls vs...
After completing the first-ever undefeated regular season...
Festival of Trees 2014
The Berkshire Museum kicked off its Festival of Trees...
Farmers' & Artisans' Harvest...
organic and handcrafted goods were sold at the special...
Football: Agawam vs Wahconah
The Wahconah football team was down eight points heading...
Girls Soccer: Granby vs...
Wahconah girls soccer over Granby, 1-0, for WMass Div. III...
Girls Soccer: Lee vs Gateway
The No.3 Lee Wildcats fell to No. 2 Gateway 4-0 Wednesday...
Girls Soccer: Sabis vs...
After coach Pat West called a timeout with 3 minutes, 19...
Hopkins Stops Lenox Boys in...
After getting through the rugged Berkshire County North...
Kershaw, Hirsch Lead Mount...
Down a goal midway through the first half of their Western...
Pittsfield Veterans Day 2014
Pittsfield observed Veterans Day with a parade and...
Hancock Veterans Day 2014
Hancock residents pay special tribute to Francis Lovejoy, a...
St. Mary's Church Tour in...
Residents, business people, elected officials and Friends...
Williamstown's Mather House...
Traffic came to halt for several hours Wednesday morning as...
Girls Soccer: Nipmuc vs...
Although the Wahconah girls' season ended on Tuesday, its...
Boys Soccer: Belchertown vs...
Belchertown Downs Mount Greylock Boys in PKs
Football: Pittsfield vs...
Shade himself ended up taking it in from the 1 on third and...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved