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@theMarket: The Worst Kind of DeclineBy Bill Schmick
iBerkshires Columnist
10:50AM / Saturday, February 21, 2009
 | | Bill Schmick |
Bear market corrections usually end with a bottom. If you have been in the markets long enough you know what to expect.
It is a grand finale of sorts in which panic roars through the trading floor, grown men cry and fortunes are won or lost in seconds. Volume explodes, stocks markets make new lows, and you feel like you are free falling off the Grand Canyon without a bungee cord. We are not there yet.
Over the last year, dozens of newsletters, media personalities and market professionals have had to wipe the egg from their faces after attempting to call such a bottom, present company included. There was one, two-week period last year when I was sure it was over and said so before reversing course with a printed apology. Fortunately, even the most arrogant of us are learning to keep our mouth shut.
This week, the market declined substantially with the Dow making 11-year lows while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 flirted with levels last seen in November. As I wrote last week, I expect the S&P to follow the Dow down and decline to 680, which would be a new market low for that index. We are well on the way to that level.
I'm not calling that a market bottom, just a target or way stop that may or may not prove to be the end of our journey. And as usual the financial sector is leading the way downward.
Stock prices in that sector are in a tailspin. I have deja vu whenever I look at Citibank below $2 share or Bank of America under $3, where they were for a brief time on Friday. The stocks of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage giants, acted in a similar fashion last year just before they were effectively nationalized by the Federal government. It appears that the markets are going to force the government's hand by driving these bank stock prices to a level where the only alternatives are bankruptcy or nationalization.
In the meantime, there appear to be few safe havens in this market. I neglected last week to mention gold and silver; these two commodities are twin towers of light in an otherwise darkening landscape in my opinion and belong in your portfolio. Both metals have had quite a run, however, and are due for a pullback so wait until a sell-off before buying.
The dollar, oddly enough, is also making gains as are U.S. Treasury bonds. Although I think both the dollar and Treasuries will have problems in the future, in the short term, especially in market downturns like this week, they function as "flight to safety" investments.
What bothers me most is the orderly way that markets are declining. Volume this week was not extraordinary (although Friday's did pick up somewhat), there was no fear or loathing, the new lows kept piling up and, although the markets are deeply oversold, they continue to decline. After trading within two points of last year's low, the S&P bounced back somewhat.
Traders are already looking for an oversold bounce next week, which if it occurs, they will short once again. It's almost business as usual on Wall Street, which definitely says to me: we go lower.
Bill Schmick is a licensed investment adviser representative as well as a registered financial consultant. All views and opinions expressed by Bill in his column are strictly his own. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-518-325-5475 or at wschmick@fairpoint.net. You can also visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insight. |
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