Wednesday, April 23, 2014 09:45pm
North Adams, MA now: 45 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
@theMarket: Coal in Your Stocking?
By Bill Schmick On: 08:15AM / Saturday December 14, 2013
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
0

The bulls can't muster enough strength to push stocks to new highs. Bears lack the conviction to stage a meaningful decline. It appears we are in a stand-off, but for how long?

This year many of the yearly investments themes of Wall Street failed to bear fruit. The "Sell in May" crowd was mightily disappointed this year. Those who warned that September and then October would be terrible months for the market were also stymied. Today, it's the "Santa Claus" rally crowd. Many investors are geared up to make a stocking full of profits any day now. They may be in for disappointment.

One could argue that we have already had our Santa Claus rally. After all, the S&P 500 Index is up over 25 percent year to date. How much more do you want? I have been warning readers to expect a pullback. Many of the indicators I follow have been flashing amber lights and some have turned red.

Eight of the last 10 and 12 of the last 18 sessions have finished lower. That's called distribution but the losses have been so minor and the euphoria so strong that bulls have largely ignored that fact. Last Friday's jobs report were cause to celebrate. At first the markets did just that, gaining over one percent on the news. But here we are a week later and stocks have given back all of those gains.

Chart of the Day

The politicians in Washington had further good news this week. There won't be another government shutdown in the foreseeable future. Both sides have hammered out a budget deal, which, if passed by the Senate this week, should solve that particular problem at least through 2015.  It removes some of the cliff hanging drama the markets hate so much, but stocks barely moved.

Last week, I advised that if the S&P 500 Index regained 1,800 and remained above it for any period of time, the coast would be clear and this present distribution would have simply been another buy-the-dip opportunity. So far the bulls have not made their case. It is true that the S&P index jumped on the employment news last Friday by over one percent, but quickly broke down. And now it is below that level once again. We are below 1,780, which is another support level. I suspect we decline to 1,760, which is the 50 day moving average. That is my first downside target.

Hopefully, it will bounce from there, but if it doesn't, there is a possibility that we may test the 200 DMA. There have never been two years in a row when the S&P 500 Index did not decline to test the 200 DMA. But I am getting ahead of myself. Let's take it one support level at a time.  

Although all of this cautious advice I am spouting may lead readers to believe I am bearish, when in fact I am extremely bullish over the medium and long-term. It's just that right here, right now, the markets might Grinch us out. But once we go through this little digestion phase, the markets should resume its advance, at least until the end of the first quarter.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.



0Comments
     
News Headlines
Williamstown Medical Entities Easing Residents' Anxiety
Pine Cobble Forest Project, Dinner Celebrates Utility of Goats
Reception Set for Retiring Williams Inn Owners
North Adams Approves Taxi Rate Hikes
Waldorf High School Students Make Historic Trip to Cuba
St. Luke's Nursing Scholarships Available
Mount Greylock Announces Honor Roll
MCLA honors Three Berkshire County Educators
Bianchi Replaces Key City Administrator
Tully: Why I Changed My Vote
Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (133)
Independent Investor (179)
Archives:
April 2014 (6)
April 2013 (2)
March 2014 (6)
February 2014 (6)
January 2014 (7)
December 2013 (8)
November 2013 (7)
October 2013 (6)
September 2013 (6)
August 2013 (8)
July 2013 (3)
June 2013 (5)
May 2013 (7)
Tags:
Stock Market Rally Selloff Bailout Banking Currency Debt Ceiling Jobs Euro Congress Federal Reserve Election Japan Crisis Stocks Metals Europe Fiscal Cliff Debt Qeii Interest Rates Economy Employment Greece Oil Energy Markets Pullback Commodities Recession Stimulus Taxes Banks Deficit Retirement
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: Easter Bunny Bounce
The Independent Investor: Good Friday and the Stock Market
@theMarket: No Spring in the Stock Market
The Independent Investor: Banks Face Tougher Regulations
@theMarket: A Crowded Trade
The Independent Investor: Obamacare Confounds Critics
@theMarket: The Faint of Heart
The Independent Investor: Do Women Have a Choice?
The Independent Investor: What's Wrong With This Flight Plan?
@theMarket: Hanging In There


View All
Softball: MG vs Drury
4-22-14 Cat Record allowed just two hits and an unearned...
Touch A Truck
Child Care of the Berkshires held its annual Touch A Truck...
Lacrosse: Hoosac vs. Taconic
Baseball: Pittsfield vs Lee
Chad Shade went 2-for-4 with a run scored, and Sam Fick...
Clarksburg Egg Scramble 2014
The annual Easter egg hunt, sponsored by the VFW, was held...
Pittsfield Egg Scramble 2014
The annual Egg Scramble at Morningside Community School saw...
Track: Monument @Hoosac...
Monument Mountain bested Hoosac Valley on its home turf...
Girls and Boys Tennis: PHS vs...
4-17-14 Girls and Boys tennis match between PHS vs Mt....
Softball: Lee vs Hoosac
4-14-14 Kassandra Kazimierczak went 2-for-4 with a double...
Baseball: MG vs Hoosac
4-11-14 Dan Flynn's suicide squeeze with the bases loaded...
Softball: MG vs McCann
4-11-14 Mount Greylock and McCann Tech played an atypical...
Sullivan School CPR Class
Seventh-graders at Sullivan School in North Adams learned...
Lacrosse: Mounties vs. Hoosac
Mounties overwhelmed Hoosac Valley on Wednesday 14-1....
North Adams Furnace St. Fire
Firefighters contained a top floor apartment blaze on...
Berkshire Chamber Career Fair...
More than 50 employers connected with job seekers at...
Lacrosse: MG vs St. Joe
Mount Greylock boys lacrosse team won 17-4 St. Joseph at...
Softball: MG vs Drury
4-22-14 Cat Record allowed just two hits and an unearned...
Touch A Truck
Child Care of the Berkshires held its annual Touch A Truck...
Lacrosse: Hoosac vs. Taconic
Baseball: Pittsfield vs Lee
Chad Shade went 2-for-4 with a run scored, and Sam Fick...
Clarksburg Egg Scramble 2014
The annual Easter egg hunt, sponsored by the VFW, was held...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved