Time for Reflection Heading into Week 17 of the NFL

Here we are, the last week of the regular season (And on the verge of a new year). It seems like just yesterday that the summer sun was blazing, Randy Moss was bitching about his contract, the Cowboys were Super Bowl favorites and the Patriots were embarking on a “bridge season.”

Oh, so much can change in just a few months. It’s been an exciting NFL season, and it should be a thrilling postseason. Let’s take a glance at the last 16 weeks, shall we?

Top 5 Surprises

1. Kansas City – If you had asked me before the season which division champion was a virtual lock, I wouldn’t have hesitated. San Diego in the West, without a doubt.  Matt Cassel and the upstart Chiefs made a statement in Week 1, shocking the Chargers on a rainy Monday night in Missouri. Most fans – including myself – called it a fluke. San Diego got off to a horrid 2-5 start, but everyone and their dog knew that the Bolts would turn it around and sneak into the postseason. But the Chiefs – chock full of former Pats - had other plans.

2. Chicago – Green Bay and Minnesota were the clear-cut frontrunners for the NFC North title. Yet here are the Bears, with a chance for the top seed in the NFC.

3. New England – Most people expected the Pats to contend for a playoff spot, but I clearly remember some so-called “experts” predicting an 8-8 or 9-7 “rebuilding” campaign for Belichick’s bunch. But unlike last year, the Pats won the games against the good teams: Colts, Steelers, Ravens, etc. And, they’ve won on the road, which they weren’t able to do last year. The big turning point (in my opinion) was the road blowout over the Dolphins in Week 4 on Monday Night Football. The Pats proved they could rely on their defense and special teams to win a game, plus it also happened to be Randy Moss’ last as a Patriot. I believe I predicted them to be 11-5 before the season (and even that was blind optimism from a homer’s perspective), but I would have never expected 13-2 and the best record in football.

4. St. Louis – Coming off a 1-15 season, the Rams are one win from a division championship. Granted, the NFC West is a joke, and an argument could be made that there are three or four other teams in the conference who deserve a playoff spot over the Rams. We all knew the West was going to be weak, but the Rams are the last of the four teams I expected to be leading the pack.

5. Tampa Bay – Playing for a playoff spot in the final week of the season. Didn’t see that one coming. Many people may have the Bucs higher up on the list, but look at the teams they beat: Not one had a winning record. But it is the NFL, and all but two or three teams are capable of winning on any given Sunday. So the fact that Tampa could finish 10-6 makes them deserving of the top 5.

Honorable mentions: Atlanta, Philadelphia and Oakland.

Top 5 Disappointments

1. Dallas – They lost their starting QB in Week 7, but things weren’t looking good even with Romo. The team had one win when the Giants ended Romo’s season. With Dallas hosting Super Bowl XLV, a lot of people picked the Cowboys to be the first team to play on its home turf while vying for the Lombardi Trophy. After a 1-7 start, Wade Phillips was canned and the Cowboys were the laughing stock of the league. The Boys have been MUCH better since Jason Garrett took the reins, but they are still going to finish (at best) with a share of last place in the NFC East.

2. San Diego – Three out of the five teams on this list fired their coach during the season. I’m not sure if Norv Turner will lose his job, but he should. San Diego was plagued with injuries, but that is not an acceptable excuse for an 8-7 record. If you saw how the Bolts manhandled the Colts at Indy, you saw this team’s potential. When a team doesn’t live up to its potential, you’ve got to look at the coaching staff.

3. Minnesota – What a mess. Coach fired, the Favre saga (on and off the field), the Moss debacle and the stadium caved in (literally). Vikings fans have reason to be optimistic following their win over Philly on Tuesday, but 2010 has been a huge bust overall.

4. Cincinnati – From division champions in 2009 to one of the worst teams in the league in 2010. Marvin Lewis’ job is in jeopardy, which seems a little unfair. When you pair up two of the biggest egomaniacs in the league, how do you expect this team to stay focused and compete in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. I certainly wasn’t expecting the Bengals to make the playoffs, but I expected better than 4-11.

5. San Francisco – I thought this was going to be a breakout year for the 49ers, and I wasn’t alone. They had a tough schedule (Saints, Chiefs, Falcons and Eagles in Weeks 2 through 5), so I think Mike Singletary is sort of the scapegoat in a year with unrealistic expectations. But in the NFC West, the Niners should have done better. They need a quarterback.

Honorable Mentions: Miami, Tennessee and N.Y. Jets.

Week 17 Picks

MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND: Pick – Patriots

BUFFALO AT N.Y. JETS: Pick – Bills

CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE: Pick – Ravens

PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND: Pick – Browns

TAMPA BAY AT NEW ORLEANS: Pick – Saints

CAROLINA AT ATLANTA: Pick – Falcons

MINNESOTA AT DETROIT: Pick – Lions

OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY: Pick – Raiders

JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON: Pick – Texans

ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO: Pick – Cardinals

SAN DIEGO AT DENVER: Pick – Broncos

CHICAGO AT GREEN BAY: Pick – Packers

N.Y. GIANTS AT WASHINGTON: Pick – Giants

DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA: Pick – Cowboys

TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: Pick – Colts

ST. LOUIS AT SEATTLE: Pick - Rams

Last week: 9-7

Season record: 145-94