Over the past six months, an increasing number of investors have come to believe that a rise in the inflation rate is inevitable. That appears to be a sound bet from where I sit, even though the present data doesn't support that wager.
The argument for increased inflation centers around money. The world is awash in the stuff. Central banks have been printing money for years to stimulate their economies. Last year's pandemic only opened the monetary flood gates even further. And the trend is not over.
During the next few months, here in the U.S., the Biden Administration is proposing another $1.9 trillion in federal spending, which will then be followed by yet another multitrillion-dollar spending program for infrastructure. Wherever you look — China, Europe, Japan — it is the same story. And while governments spend, central banks print money.
Why, then, you might ask, is the inflation rate so tame? If you look at our Consumer Price Index (CPI), over the last twelve months the increase was just 1.4 percent. That is and has been, far below the Federal Reserve Bank's target of 2 percent. It is so far below their inflation target that the Fed has said they would be willing and happy to see inflation rise above that rate for some time into the future.
And yet, wherever you look on the commodity front, we see accelerating prices in soft, as well as hard commodities. Corn, soybeans, wheat, sugar, copper, lumber, oil, precious metals, and most other material prices have climbed well above the 1.4 percent year-to-year increase in the CPI. How can that be?
Because the CPI and many other inflation measures like the Producer Price Index (PPI) are heavily weighted in such things as services and rents. Inflation by mundane variables, like commodities, are usually not much of a concern. That is largely because commodity prices fluctuate, and (over the last decade or so) were in downtrends.
However, that period appears to be coming to an end. Some economists argue that the declining dollar after years of strength may have something to do with it. Since most commodities are priced in dollars, for foreigners, commodities have become cheaper to purchase in their currencies, sparking additional demand.
At the same time, after years of lower prices, mining and exploration companies reduced their spending budgets. Why produce more of something worthless and less? As a result, a large number of commodities are in short supply. We have to go back 10 years to the spring of 2011, to witness the kind of price increases we are seeing in at least 35 different commodities.
All of this has been occurring while most of the world's economies are struggling to remain above water, thanks to the coronavirus pandemic. But now we are in the midst of a worldwide vaccination program. If successful, we can expect a turnaround in economic growth. What will happen to commodity prices once global economies begin to grow again?
Demand will increase quickly, while supply will take much longer to revive. That is a recipe for rising prices. Inflation, therefore, is all about expectations. If buyers of copper, for example, expect prices to increase in the future, they will gladly pay the going rate today to avoid higher prices in the future. I believe we are experiencing just such a change in sentiment when it comes to future inflation.
By the time this trend shows up in the CPI or the PPI, which could take many more months, inflation will be marching higher along with economic growth, so be prepared. If I were you, I would think seriously about putting some money to work in this area.
Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.
Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.
Investment managers have spent the last decade buying and selling U.S. equities largely to the exclusion of the rest of the world. That made a lot of sense, since the S&P 500 was the best performing index in the world during that period. But times are changing.
While our U.S. stock averages did well again in 2020, Asian stocks did equally as well, and in some cases, they did better. Some of that performance can be attributed to the declining dollar. A weaker dollar benefits U.S. holders of foreign equities, and most analysts expect the greenback to weaken further this year.
However, that is not the only reason for investing in Asia. Overall, valuations are cheaper, much cheaper, than the lofty prices of many of America's stock market darlings. I know that many investors believe that valuations don't matter in this environment. They argue that as long as the Fed has our back, and the economy re-opens, company earnings will grow into these sky-high valuations.
I say they don't matter, until they do. Buying Asian equities at a reasonable price in 2021 removes much of that valuation risk, in my opinion. But valuation is only part of the story. I agree with Credit Suisse that says Asian stocks are entering an "earnings super-cycle" that could last for 3-5 years. They expect Asia's economies to come roaring back from the demise of the pandemic this year, thanks to several life-saving vaccines.
While America wrestles with a winter surge of cases, deaths, and shutdowns, most of Asia is already rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic. Their economies have suffered less than the U.S., thanks to more enlightened governments and populations that have worked and sacrificed together.
Another big change is the importance of China to the region. China has replaced the U.S. as the principal engine of growth in Asia. While a Trumpian America has turned inward, eschewing regional trade agreements and erecting barriers to free trade, Asia has done the opposite. I have already written about some of their cooperative trade agreements such as the Asian Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RECEP), which includes China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and others.
There are also some interesting trends in countries like Korea, China, and Japan that offer lucrative opportunities for the astute investor. Progress in clean, renewable energy, something lacking in our own country over the last four years, is making leaps and bounds overseas. Asian countries, backed by governments that are fully on board with the concept, continue to invest in solar and wind energy, various environmental initiatives, as well as in areas such as electric vehicles (Evs).
It is one of the reasons that Tesla, the number one player in EVs, is building an enormous new facility in China.
These changes will have enormous benefits for the Asian auto industry. Japan, for example, is planning to phase out gas guzzlers over the next ten years, which will revolutionize their massive auto export industry. China, not to be outdone, is already fostering several start-ups in the EV business as well.
Over the past three months, the trend toward "value investing" has caught fire, as a way to play the re-opening of the U.S. economy. Investors are buying up bank, consumer discretionary, natural resource, and industrial/materials stocks. I would rather look in the Asia Pacific region, and in India, where just about every investment is a value play.
You want mines and metals, look no further than Australia. Banks and real estate, try Singapore. Consumer stocks, what about investing in companies that sell to the billions of consumers in China?
Also, remember that technology is just as big in countries like Korea (DRAM chips) and Taiwan as it is here. Big foreign semiconductors, digital data centers, and internet companies are listed and readily available for purchase on our own stock exchanges. In fact, just about every country in Southeast Asia, India, and Indonesia are easily available through the purchase of exchange traded funds (ETFs).
One big criticism on investing overseas has always been the questionable accounting of overseas companies, along with the risk that various governments often have a track record of meddling with individual companies for political purposes. We can point to companies, such as Luckin Coffee in China, as a dishonest accounting case in point. However, today, recognizing this investment pitfall, most countries are cracking down hard on inaccurate company reporting and those executives at the helm. This week China sentenced to death a banker convicted of taking bribes.
As for government meddling, over the last several years, the U.S. government has done as much as China or any other country to influence and alter the fortunes of public companies. Just think about the Congressional hearings and White House meddling in companies such as Twitter, Facebook, Apple, and Amazon (to name a few).
In any case, the combination of a declining, dollar, reasonable valuations, and higher growth prospects makes Southeast Asia, including Japan, a much more attractive bet, in my opinion, than just sticking with the U.S.A.
Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.
Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.
If you are one of those eleventh-hour holiday Christmas tree shoppers, you may be out of luck this year. Fresh balsam furs and other varieties of the traditional Yule symbol are hard to find.
Blame the pandemic on the scarcity, but at the same time, celebrate the fact that more families than ever before are getting together this holiday season. And decorating that tree could be an intensely personal experience for the whole family.
My wife, Barbara, and I actually set up our tree on Thanksgiving weekend. Given our ages, we chose to forgo turkey day with our loved ones, who reside in Manhattan, and tried to fill that emotional hole with something else. We found that rather than being one of those chores on our holiday "to-do" list, this year we took our time, and yes, savored the tree decoration experience together. I must confess it also helped us relieve a bit of those COVID holiday blues.
Most Christmas tree grower associations are reporting that retailers are doing a brisk business throughout the nation as consumers spend more of their dollars on experiences, rather than gift products. Last year, Americans purchased more than 26 million live trees, worth about $2 billion, according to the National Christmas Tree Association, based in Colorado. The association represents about 75 percent of the U.S. Christmas tree supply. That number was lower than 2018, largely due to an increase in demand for artificial trees.
Price may have something to do with that, since live trees seem to get more expensive every year. This year, with all the home improvement household spending, the median price for real trees is expected to be up by 7 percent to around $81 a tree. That is a 7 percent increase over last year and 23 percent higher than 2018. For many, that is a steep price to pay for picking pine needles out of the rug over the next three months.
Still, I guess for a millennial family who can make a day of it, the price is worth it. This year, many more city and suburban dwellers have piled into their cars, make the trip to their favorite tree farm somewhere out in the "wilderness," and selected the family tree together. I am sure you have seen countless of these holiday trophies, netted, and firmly tied to the roof of the car, making their way back home to be plopped into a tree stand in the living or entertainment room.
This year, the National Retail Federation believes the majority of consumers are more interested in holiday decorations and other seasonal items because of the pandemic. Lights for the tree and to decorate the outside of the home are also in demand, as are wreaths and garland. Pandemic-themed ornaments such as Santa Claus wearing a facemask, or ornaments with inscriptions of "Merry Christmas 2020" are especially popular.
The decoration demand was so great that retailers such as Walmart, Costco Wholesale, and At Home Group Inc., which are known for selling holiday items, were caught off balance. Many retailers under-ordered due to the shutdown earlier in the year. As a result, many stores have ended up with bare shelves in the holiday decorations and ornaments section this year since last-minute resupplies are difficult to come by.
This year, thanks to the coronavirus, the holidays will be different. Most of us know that. But no matter the size of your tree, or how many ornaments are upon it, or how many presents you received, if you have been lucky enough to avoid being infected — count your blessings. That should be more than enough to make this holiday season your best.
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas.
Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.
Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.
Earlier this year, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil slumped into negative territory for the first time in history. Oil traded at a negative $37.63. Today, that same barrel of oil is changing hands at $47.48. What changed?
More than any other sector, the coronavirus has had a devastating impact on the global oil and gas industry. Declining consumer demand in the first quarter of the year in combination with high levels of energy production threatened to exceed worldwide oil storage capacity. OPEC plus, the oil cartel, took action on April 12 by cutting oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day, but by then it was too late. By April 20-22, you couldn't give away a barrel of oil and prices responded in kind.
By the end of the first quarter, more than 40 U.S. oil producers collectively wrote down $48 billion worth of assets, which was the largest quarterly adjustment since 2015. The losses were so bad that many investors sold banking stocks, concerned that several banks with energy loans outstanding might go under as a result. None of that happened, largely due to the quick action by our central bank's guaranteed loan program, and a huge slug of government fiscal spending.
Fast forward to today, where the revival in energy prices is somewhat remarkable given the present surge of COVID-19 cases. In my opinion, the oil price increase is all about the expected return to our pre-pandemic way of life. The hope is that as the coronavirus vaccines do their job, we will see an increase in worldwide demand for transportation, which is the principal driver of oil prices.
The re-opening of the global economy will lead to higher consumption of diesel and natural gas as industrial businesses ramp up to full production. There should also be an upsurge in demand for refined energy products that are used in just about every industry.
In the short-term, I believe the continued price rise in oil will be dependent on what OPEC plus decides to do with production. As of last week, the cartel and its outside members agreed to gradually increase oil production by no more than 500,000/bbl. per day starting from January 2021. Here in the U.S. (where we are considered to be the world's main marginal producer) both our small and large oil companies have curtailed production and plugged wells.
There are other reasons that demand for oil may outpace supply. Unlike some industries, you can't just turn on the spigot and produce more oil and gas. There is a lead time involved in the process. A result of the economic downturn, nearly every oil company has had to cut investment spending this year. That meant a reduction in the development of proven reserves, which in the short-term doesn't matter much, but if demand picks up it could become a supply issue next year.
Companies upstream from these producers, the drilling and exploration contactors, as well as oil service companies, have been cutting back as well to stay solvent. Currently, oilfield activity is down 5 percent, the lowest in a decade. To reverse direction, this industry requires time. And a lot of it. All of the above could create an on-going imbalance in supply and demand leading to further price hikes.
In addition, the trend towards renewable energy sources has finally caught the attention of the largest oil corporations. Both politically, as well as from a long-term profit motive, alternative energy is attracting more investment. It is siphoning off the cash that had originally been ear-marked for traditional energy production. That trend seems to be firmly in place. Government incentives to do even more investing in the future may well reduce the investment spending necessary to increase the supply of oil and gas. This could all result in a perfect storm of higher oil prices next year.
Looking at the stock market, while energy stocks in general have enjoyed double-digit price rises over the last month, the energy sector overall is still down 32.9 percent so far this year, compared to the S&P 500 Index gain of 15.3 percent. My bet is that energy equities continue to close the gap in performance through 2021 as the price of oil climbs.
Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.
Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.
Investors should know better by now. Stimulus talks have been going on since July 2020, but politicians in the capital appear to be stuck on the same old issues. Unfortunately, the deadline for a 2020 compromise bill is less than three weeks away.
It is anyone's guess whether the nation's economic and pandemic plight will win over partisan politics. It hasn't so far. The financial markets are not taking kindly to failure at this point. The all-time highs we have been enjoying for the last two weeks have been built on investors' near certainty that at least $900 billion in new Federal stimulus money would be forthcoming shortly.
Those funds were supposed to help bridge the gap in both human suffering and economic growth between now and the time the coronavirus vaccines will be readily available throughout the nation. Normally, when such an important binary event is in the offing, we would expect an 11th-hour deal to be struck. Should this time be any different?
In addition, there is another piece of legislation that also needs to be passed. The one-week Federal budget extension is also in play and without it the nation would experience another government shutdown. Delay allows both parties to garner all the media coverage possible. It is the consummate blame game and political theatre at its best (or worst). But what if a stimulus deal doesn't happen? Or the government does shut down?
In all likelihood, the stock market will decline, but any sell-off would probably be limited. I give a government shutdown a low probability, but a new stimulus bill could be a toss-up. I suspect more aid is being held hostage at this point by Georgia's run-off senatorial elections on Jan. 5. Both parties are attempting to influence voters' preference before the elections. The stimulus bill appears to be the trump card and will happen if one side or the other feels its passage gives them a winning hand. What happens after the elections could also be important for the stock market.
If the Democrats win (and thus take command of both houses of Congress), most equity strategists are expecting a knee-jerk decline, as Wall Street starts to discount a potential increase in corporate taxes (as Biden has promised during his election campaign).
That tax risk might be partially off-set by expectations that the Democrats will want to spend a whole lot more in stimulus than under a Republican-controlled Senate. If the GOP wins the Senate race in Georgia, Wall Street believes tax increases and a large stimulus package are probably both off the table. If that sounds too neat and tidy, it probably is.
My own take is that neither party will have a functional majority in the Senate, and maybe even in the House, no matter who wins in Georgia. As a result, I am not expecting anything "big" to get done on either taxes or stimulus. In the meantime, any downside volatility created by all this political noise would give investors the opportunity to buy stocks at lower prices. Why buy? As I have explained many times in the past, the key to the economy and further gains in the stock market have always hinged on beating the coronavirus.
It is simple really; while all of this political drama plays out, the new COVID-19 vaccines should continue to be distributed. More businesses should re-open as a result, and the economy should right itself on its own over time. As it does, the stock market should begin to discount an even stronger rate of economic growth in 2021. If so, we will be off to the races.
That gives you the broad-brush strokes of what I am expecting in the financial markets over the course of next year. There will most likely be potholes along the way. The vaccine distribution, for example, will probably not go as smoothly as most expect. We are already getting reports of some serious side effects from some patients after receiving the second dose of Pfizer's vaccine.
If the two parties somehow re-learn the art of compromise (something that I believe has been the secret of America's strength and success since its founding), then we should expect even higher gains in next year's U.S. market. If not, I advise looking elsewhere for better performance.
Bill's forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.
Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of OPI, Inc. or a solicitation to become a client of OPI. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by OPI. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal. This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements, and we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct.
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