Thursday, January 29, 2015 11:20am
North Adams, MA now: 18 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
@theMarket: Marking Time
By: Bill Schmick On: 10:41PM / Friday October 29, 2010
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
0

This coming week will be a humdinger for the markets. The Federal Reserve is expected to begin a second round of quantitative easing and voters will deliver their verdict on the economy in mid-term elections. Both events will have ramifications for investors and stock markets worldwide.

The Fed's decision to further stimulate the economy via a second round of quantitative easing (QE II) has already been priced into the market, in my opinion, but the impact of the mid-term elections has not. If the Republicans gain a majority in the House and additional seats in the Senate, as many political pundits predict, then the markets have reason to rally in the months, if not weeks ahead.

For me, the question is when, not if, the markets will gain more ground. Stocks (and some commodities) are somewhat overbought right now and looking for an excuse to pull back. Maybe the election results will precipitate a "sell-on-the-news" reaction in the very short term. The question I ask is whether the lame-duck Congress will give investors an added excuse to sell?

Most readers are aware that the Bush tax cuts are scheduled to expire in 2010. Will Congress act to extend those cuts before the end of the year? If it does (by extending the tax cuts for many, if not all, Americans), then the markets could see substantial gains. On the other hand, if nothing is done and the tax cuts are allowed to expire than we may be in for a period of uncertainty.

Since I have been attending Charles Schwab's yearly investor conference in Boston this week, it was a good opportunity to take the pulse of the best and brightest on Wall Street as they shared their views of the market and economy. Clearly, just about everyone I talked to is bullish. Not once did I hear the term "double-dip recession," and for the most part, just about everyone was looking for strong markets between now and at least the second quarter of 2011.

In addition, no one likes bonds, especially U.S. Treasury bonds. "Bubble" was the term most often used when describing the $70 trillion investors have stashed away in the bond market. Most argue that the perceived safety that investors see in bonds is an illusion. The investment team from Gameco Investors Inc. headed by famed value investor Mario Gabelli argued that bonds are "in the ninth inning of a 30-year run" providing holders with little yield, no growth prospects and a mountain of interest rate risk. In addition, "Money markets are also not as safe as you think," said Gabelli.

He points out that the $2.8 trillion in money-market funds has a great deal of dollar risk in the form of depreciation, inflation and debasement, besides offering little in the way of yield or growth.

Currency wars was also a leading topic of discussion with most participants believing the battle between nations to keep their currencies weak will continue. The prognosis for the greenback is more weakness ahead as America attempts to export its way to greater growth. As a result, U.S. companies that export are in vogue, especially technology stocks.

Gold, precious metals and commodities in general was an area of heated arguments, with some dismissing the recent run ups as irresponsible speculation while others read the price moves as a rationale answer to declining currencies and the inevitable rise in inflation that lurks just around the corner.

Emerging markets are once again in favor as an area for long-term investment. Bulls point to the increasing percentage of global GDP (49 percent) represented by these fast-growing economies as opposed to what they consider is an underrepresented share of the world's stock market capitalization (only 31 percent).

In the minus column, financial stocks stood out as an area that won't regain its pre-2008 luster anytime soon, neither will consumer discretionary stocks. In both cases, these sectors suffer from the deleveraging that is under way among American consumers. Banks, whose major business is making loans to customers, will experience low growth since Americans are trying to reduce, not increase, their debt as a percentage of their personal income. Consumers are reducing that debt by cutting back on their discretionary spending.

All in all the tone was upbeat at the conference and it felt that business was beginning to get back to normal after several years of strife. Whether that is a good thing when discussing the financial services sector is a matter of opinion.

Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or e-mail him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.



0 Comments
Tags: recession, currency, bonds, forecast      
News Headlines
Free State, Federal Tax Prep For Incomes Under $53K
Waynick Leads Duda to Win to Cap Perfect Season
Plan to Remove Pittsfield's Mill Street Dam Moving Forward
Williams Team Breaks Record on Lego Star Destroyer Build
Clarksburg's Chapter 90 Boost Clears Way for Gates Ave Bridge
Morningside Principal Offered Pittsfield's Deputy Superintendent Job
Pittsfield Group Leaves Warm Clothing Out For Those In the Cold
Free Blood Pressure Screenings Set in February
Greylock Insurance Agency Makes Donation to Breaking Bread Kitchen
Ventfort Hall Mansion Names New Executive Director

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (158)
Independent Investor (213)
Archives:
January 2015 (8)
January 2014 (1)
December 2014 (7)
November 2014 (4)
October 2014 (9)
September 2014 (5)
August 2014 (7)
July 2014 (2)
June 2014 (6)
May 2014 (9)
April 2014 (8)
March 2014 (6)
February 2014 (6)
Tags:
Stock Market Europe Jobs Metals Pullback Markets Greece Energy Congress Debt Ceiling Retirement Banks Housing Commodities Interest Rates Stocks Federal Reserve Bailout Japan Debt Recession Oil Euro Election Selloff Crisis Stimulus Taxes Rally Deficit Europe Fiscal Cliff Economy Fed Currency
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: More Stimuli Equal Higher Markets
The Independent Investor: The European Central Bank Delivers
@theMarket: Tail That Wagged the Dog
The Independent Investor: What's Happening to the Movies?
@theMarket: What Will the New Year Bring?
The Independent Investor: Think twice Before Co-Signing Student Loan
@theMarket: What Will the New Year Bring?
The Independent Investor: Could Greece Upset the Applecart?
@theMarket: Santa Comes to Town
The Independent Investor: IRA Distribution Time


View All
Hockey: Mt Everett vs...
The Wahconah hockey team defeated Mount Everett, 3-2,...
Berkshire County UCP Telethon
United Cerebral Palsy of Berkshire County held its 52nd and...
Girls BB: Athol vs Hoosac...
McKenzie Robinson dished out nine assists to help the...
Swimming: Wahconah vs St....
Liz Bernardy won the 100-yard freestyle and 200 individual...
Boys BB: Drury vs Hoosac...
Friday night basketball, Drury boys win over Hoosac Valley...
Girls BB: Lee vs Mount...
Barrett scored a game-high 27 points in Thursday's 57-44...
Boys BB: Smith Academy vs...
The Pittsfield boys' basketball team defeated Smitch...
North Adams Chamber @...
The North Adams Chamber of Commerce held its first...
Hockey: St Mary's vs Wahconah
The Wahconah hockey team defeated St. Mary's Wednesday...
Berkshire Chamber @GFCU
Berkshire Chamber of Commerce held its January networking...
Boys BB: Wahconah vs Drury
The Wahconah boys basketball team was able to pull away and...
Boys BB: Hoosac Valley vs...
Jerry McDonough scored 14 points and went 4-for-6 at the...
Girls BB: Wahconah vs Lenox
The Wahconah girls basketball team got back on track with a...
Girls BB: Hoosac Valley vs Mt...
Hoosac used 25 points and 11 rebounds from Emily Rosse to...
Co-ed XC Skiing
The Mount Greylock cross country ski team had the home...
Girls BB: Millbrook vs Miss...
Grace Guachione scored 19 of her 22 points in the first...
Hockey: Mt Everett vs...
The Wahconah hockey team defeated Mount Everett, 3-2,...
Berkshire County UCP Telethon
United Cerebral Palsy of Berkshire County held its 52nd and...
Girls BB: Athol vs Hoosac...
McKenzie Robinson dished out nine assists to help the...
Swimming: Wahconah vs St....
Liz Bernardy won the 100-yard freestyle and 200 individual...
Boys BB: Drury vs Hoosac...
Friday night basketball, Drury boys win over Hoosac Valley...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved