Wednesday, May 22, 2013 08:05am
North Adams, MA now: 61 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
@theMarket: One Down, One to Go
By: Bill Schmick On: 01:26PM / Saturday July 23, 2011
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
0

On Friday, the European Union announced a new $157 billion bailout plan for Greece. The scope of the plan went much further than most investors expected. It promised to finance all countries that need bailouts for as long as it takes for them to recover. There's more.

I refer to the new plan as the "Full Monty" (see my column "Europe Goes the Full Monty") because it is the first time in the 18-month long crisis that European leaders were willing to draft a comprehensive approach to the financial crisis among the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain).  The plan will be proactive in heading off any further financial contagion among its members while fencing in those that already are in trouble (Portugal, Ireland and Greece).

The deal does allow for a "selective default" in Greece, where some but not all of its debt will be written off or renegotiated at lower terms and lengthened maturities. The plan does not go as far as I might have wished but in the real world of European politics it appears the best that they could do. In my opinion, the crisis appears, if not over, to be at least contained for now.

That crisis is one of two large clouds that have been hanging over the markets for months. The other bailout issue is in our own backyard. And, as I suspected, our elected representatives are stretching out the tension as long as they can. Both sides are glorying in their extra media attention, using their 10-15 seconds of sound-bite glory to appear concerned, tough and "on your side" (while raising as much additional campaign funds as possible for next year's elections).

Here are a summary of client questions and my answers this week on this on-going travesty:

"Will the debt ceiling be raised by the August 2 deadline?”

I'm betting yes, but that still leaves 11 days of volatility in the bond and stock markets.

"What will happen after the deadline, if the ceiling isn't raised?"

As I wrote last week, the markets will decline in the short term, presenting a buying opportunity for anyone brave enough to venture into equities.

"Will the Gang of Six deficit-reduction plan be passed?"

I suspect some version of that plan will be passed but the question is when. The Republicans want to prevent any legislation that might improve the economy or reduce unemployment until after next year's elections. They hope voter frustration over the economy will propel their party's candidates into office and defeat a re-election bid by President Obama.

Unfortunately, the nation's financial credit agencies are not cooperating with the GOP timetable. They have made it clear that without a serious, comprehensive deficit–cutting plan in the ballpark of $4 trillion or more, they will cut the U.S. debt rating. I suspect we will be on "credit watch" until a deficit reduction deal is passed, which means that we will be assaulted by this back-and-forth bickering for some time to come.

"If and when the deficit plan is passed, can we go back to whatever normal is?”

That depends. I believe that cutting spending and raising taxes in an economy that is struggling to gain momentum exposes this recovery to extreme danger. Cutting spending too deeply while raising taxes too much (and shrinking the money supply) is exactly what nipped a fledgling recovery in the bud and sent the U.S. economy into a depression in the '30s. Ask yourself this question: do you feel confident that a bunch of madmen in Washington have the ability to strike just the right balance in order to grow the economy while reducing the deficit?

But let me worry about that. It will take weeks, if not months, for such a compromise to be worked out. In the meantime, this last storm cloud appears to be moving to the edge of the horizon for now. I expect some real progress on a compromise next week.

The economy may be inching along, but corporate profits are booming. This earnings season so far is seeing the vast majority of companies beat earnings and increase guidance. This debt crisis is repressing what should be a buoyant stock market. Like a coiled spring, stocks are just waiting to bounce higher. If and when the debt ceiling is passed, that will happen.

Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or e-mail him at wschmick@fairpoint.net . Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.



0Comments
Tags: Greece, PIGS, bailout, Europe, deb ceiling      
News Headlines
Williamstown Declines Civil Fingerprinting, Spruces Plan
Williamstown Coordinating Committee Convenes
Brayton, Terry A La Berry Present Anti-Bullying Song, Video
Williamstown Voters to Face Spending, Land Issues
North Adams Begins $36.6M Budget Review
Solar Array Going To Lanesborough Town Meeting Floor
Clarksburg Sets Annual Town Meeting for June 18
Taconic Graduate Wins Steel Rail Half Marathon
Pittsfield Cuts Ribbon On 'Learning Trail' To Promote Literacy
Memorial Day Events 2013
Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (102)
Independent Investor (137)
Archives:
May 2013 (5)
May 2012 (2)
April 2013 (6)
March 2013 (7)
February 2013 (7)
January 2013 (6)
December 2012 (8)
November 2012 (4)
October 2012 (6)
September 2012 (8)
August 2012 (7)
July 2012 (6)
June 2012 (9)
Tags:
Japan Election Greece Europe Europe Congress Stock Market Retirement Rally Crisis Markets Fiscal Cliff Metals Commodities Interest Rates Taxes Oil Deficit Markets Jobs Currency Energy Debt Economy Pullback Unemployment Debt Ceiling Qeii Federal Reserve Recession Stimulus Bailout Euro Banks Fed
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: 1995 Redux?
The Independent Investor: Sticker Shock in Housing Market
The Independent Investor: Online Education Is Not a Panacea
@theMarket: The Goldilocks Market
The Independent Investor: Where Others Fear to Tread
@theMarket: Five for Five
The Independent Investor: R2D2 and the Stock Market
The Independent Investor: Insider Trading Alive & Kicking on Capitol Hill
The Independent Investor: Japan: The Rising Sun, Part II
@theMarket: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back


View All
Baseball: Monument at Drury
5/20/13 The Drury baseball team lost to Monument Mountain...
Steel Rail Half Marathon
About 500 people ran the Steel Rail Half Marathon, which...
U-14 Boys Soccer
5/18/13 The North Adams U-14 Boys Soccer team NA Rovers...
Drury High Prom 2013
Drury High School held its prom on Saturday night at the...
McCann Tech Prom 2013
McCann Technical School held its senior prom Saturday night...
MCLA Graduation 2013
MCLA held the 2013 commencement on Saturday.
Mount Everett High Prom 2013
5/17/13 Mount Everett High School held its senior prom...
Third Thursday May 2013
Third Thursdays returned this week. The Pittsfield festival...
Softball: Drury at Pittsfield
5/16/13 The Drury girls softball team traveled to...
Torchia SB League
5/15/13 The Pat Torchia Softball League, played Wednesday...
Williams College Children...
Jennifer Marlowe's prekindergarten class visited North...
LAX: Mt. Anthony at Greylock
The Mount Greylock girl's lacrosse team took on visiting...
LAX: Wahconah at Hoosac
The Wahconah girls lacrosse team traveled to Hoosac Valley,...
Baseball: Monument at...
Mount Greylock rallied from down five runs to beat visiting...
LAX: Lee at Greylock
Mount Greylock took down visiting Lee 21-2 on Friday...
Lenox High Prom 2013
5/10/13 Lenox High School held its senior prom Friday at...
Baseball: Monument at Drury
5/20/13 The Drury baseball team lost to Monument Mountain...
Steel Rail Half Marathon
About 500 people ran the Steel Rail Half Marathon, which...
U-14 Boys Soccer
5/18/13 The North Adams U-14 Boys Soccer team NA Rovers...
Drury High Prom 2013
Drury High School held its prom on Saturday night at the...
McCann Tech Prom 2013
McCann Technical School held its senior prom Saturday night...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings | Berkshires Map |
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-473-8799
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved