In 2021, worldwide, the costs of the ten worst disasters caused by climate change totaled more than $170 billion. It was the fourth time in the last five years that we have suffered that level of damages. Scientists expect next year to be even worse.

 

Insurance companies, like Zurich-based Swiss Re, bear the brunt of the costs of extreme weather. During the last decade, losses have been rising 5-6 percent per year, according to Swiss Re's recent analysis. They expect at least one $10 billion catastrophe, such as severe flooding, a winter storm, or a massive wildfire will be part of the new normal in weather changes.   

 

What is worse, more than ever before, extreme weather events are striking densely populated areas. That is one reason why these disasters are so costly. As we continue to spew greenhouse gases into the air, as global temperatures continue to climb, scientists believe that future annual insurance losses will continue to far exceed the $100 billion mark.

 

Hurricane Ida, according to a U.K.-based, non-profit organization called Christian Aid, took first place in U.S. damages in 2021. The August storm made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 4, costing $65 billion in damages as it made its way across the Eastern part of the country. July's Western European floods came in second with a price tag of $43 billion. In February 2021, the winter storm that paralyzed Texas, damaging the state's electrical grid, racked up $23 billion in losses.  

 

While Louisiana was dealing with Hurricane Ida, China's Henan Province was hit by massive flooding, accounting for $17.6 billion in destruction. British Columbia saw record-setting rainfall in November 2021, which cost Canada $7.5 billion.

 

Some of the other disasters that didn't make the grade, but cost billions of dollars, nonetheless, were Cyclone Yaws in India and Bangladesh, Australian flooding in March that displaced 18,000 people and cost $2.1 billion in damages, the Parana River drought in Latin America, which impacted jobs and lives in Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. I could go on and on.

 

But by no means does this partial list of climate disasters accurately reflect the total cost of climate change in 2021. These damage assessments were completed, for example, prior to the Dec. 11, 2021, six-state trail of devastation caused by more than 40 tornadoes in the U.S. Costs of that catastrophe are estimated to total $3.7 billion. It will be months before we know the true costs of climate change in 2021.

 

Unfortunately, most experts tend to focus on the financial costs to wealthier countries, which typically have higher property values. It is also in developed nations that insurance companies conduct most of their business. Many of this year's worst weather events have occurred in poorer nations, which have contributed far less to climate change, but have suffered disproportionately more in lives lost and in suffering.   

 

In the beginning of 2021, 17 scientists in Australia, Mexico, and the U.S. co-authored a perspective paper in the journal "Frontiers in Conservation Science." They concluded that much of humankind was in a state of denial when it came to climate change. I happen to agree with that view. As we draw closer to a "collapse in civilization as we know it," governments and political parties all but sit on their hands as the world burns.

 

For example, President Biden's infrastructure bill earmarked $47 billion to help communities to prepare for a new age of climate catastrophes. That was far less than the $88 billion in costs of just two of the nation's extreme weather events this year. And yet members of both political parties fought tooth and nail to reduce that amount!

 

The worldwide pandemic is small potatoes, in my opinion, compared to the era of devastation that we are now entering. Get real, people. The loss of biodiversity, climate disruption, unbridled human consumption, and exploding population growth, if left unaddressed, will make the lives we live today ecologically unsustainable.

 

While we may all be shocked, (even worried for a day or two) by 40 tornadoes overnight in six states, imagine what will happen when downtown Manhattan, Chicago, or Boston experience similar events. Unfortunately, by then it will be too little too late.

 

Individual investors have had a decade or more of gains, compliments of a stock market that has gone up with few interruptions. But as we enter a new era of tighter monetary policy, the road ahead may be a bit rockier than most investors expect. As such, it might be time to enlist a little professional help to preserve those profits.

 

There is a saying on Wall Street that just about anyone can make money in a bull market. That may be a bit harsh. I don’t want to denigrate the efforts of so many who work hard at managing their own retirement portfolios. Some work diligently at following the markets and have made it a full-time occupation. Most others "dabble" with the aid of newsletters and columns like this one. That may have worked well up until now, but I fear we are entering a new stage of the market where a weekly column like mine just won’t be enough to protect your investments.

 

I recognize that if you are like me, you hate to spend money on something you can do yourself, especially if you have been making money by buying dips and staying invested. If this bullish trend continues, why would you even consider paying fees to a money manager?  

 

For the same reason you don't fix your own computer, washer/dryer, or put on your own new roof. Notice in each case I used an example where something broke down or malfunctioned. That has not happened yet in the stock market. Afterall, we are only a percentage point or two away from all-time highs. But what would happen if the stock market suffered a 20 percent decline? Well, just buy the dip, you might say, right?

 

What would happen if you were right, but after the sell-off, dip buying worked, just not in the case of U.S. equites? Let's say international securities bounced back, but U.S. equities did not. Are you prepared to navigate changes like this?

 

And do you have the time to do that? Up until recently, your portfolio was probably on auto-drive. A daily check on the markets, maybe a brief read of the occasional research note was sufficient to keep you on the straight and narrow. But the fact is that more than 75 percent of individuals investors, according to Fidelity studies, do not have the time, knowledge or experience to be confident in their investment choices.

 

I will be the first one to tell you that reading my weekly columns is not going to cut it. Sure, I have a good track record in calling the turns in the markets and possible investment choices over the years. But what I don't know are your backgrounds, your investing plans, nor your risk tolerance, tax status, spending behavior, retirement issues, or your estate and long-term care plans. That is why my advice will always remain generic. In down markets you need a lot more than that.

 

Now many investment advisors simply manage money, and don't get involved with financial planning. I believe that is a big mistake. Most investors, regardless of age, should seek an investment advisor that does both. How else can a professional craft an investment portfolio with the right risk profile that considers all your life factors. Many of those details are as important (or even more important) than how much money you win or lose over a day or month within the vagaries of the market.

 

Another important reason to consider a financial advisor is in order to keep your emotions in check. Personally, I expect a serious correction in the stock market in January-February 2022. If so, some investors could lose most of the profits they made in 2021. How much pain can you absorb? Does your present portfolio reflect the proper risk you are willing to take, or has it become more aggressive over time? If you are like most people, you have no idea. But I will bet your risk taking is higher than it should be.

 

History says that individual investors tend to hold on, suffer through the pain of a declining market only to sell at the bottom of a big decline. Don't allow yourself to be one of those casualties. The time to act, reduce the risk in your portfolio, and prepare for this pain trade is now. A professional portfolio manager can help you do that and be there for you when you are convinced the world is coming to an end.

 

The purpose of this column is to scare you into getting off your butt. Most people won't make a move until they absolutely must. Sure, I could give you all those boring, financial arguments that you read (and ignore) all the time. Fear is a great motivator, however. Pick up the phone and set up an appointment now, don't wait until it is too late. If you don't know who to contact, call, or email me. Given my background, plus 40 years of investment experience, I will work with you to determine someone appropriate given your circumstances.  

 

Workers in America are rethinking who they are and what they want. For the first time in decades, the stars have aligned to give the labor movement a much-needed lift. Will this prove to be a flash in the pan or something more lasting?

 

The share of American workers who claim union membership has been declining for years. There is a myriad of reasons for this decades-long decline. U.S. legislation and the court system has created enormous challenges to forming unions. The transfer of jobs to low-paying countries overseas has also devastated union membership. Labor membership can also be expensive with high monthly dues. In the past thirty years of declining real wages, most workers were grateful to just keep their jobs.  Paying union dues when they had a family to feed was not a high priority.

 

At the same time, the decline of those willing to obtain skills through education or apprenticeship in the U.S. has contributed to a rise in unskilled, service industry jobs. Unfortunately, these jobs suffer from high turnover and minimum wages, and were not a target market of the existing labor union movement.

 

Everything changed with the arrival of COVID-19. The pandemic ushered in massive unemployment, huge safety risks for employed workers in essential sectors, and a wholesale movement towards work-at-home solutions. It was a tiring time for the American worker. And from the ashes a new attitude towards labor was born.

 

Workers employed in "essential industries" who showed up to keep the country running were no longer taken for granted. Nurses, truck drivers, food industry workers and more became the new American heroes. Local media outlets, politicians, and even the White House honored and featured ordinary laborers, who made extraordinary efforts in our time of crisis.      

 

But the pandemic was also the match that forced many Americans to rethink their relationship to work overall. We are, for example, one of the few nations where health care benefits are dependent on your employment. As health care risks and unemployment skyrocketed simultaneously, holes in our private health insurance became readily apparent.

 

"Life is too short" became more than just a quaint slogan. Many Americans, obsessive belief that "work first, ahead of everything else" as life's pre-eminent goal, might need to be re-examined. For others, long-buried work issues such as safety, benefits, wages, and more rose to the surface. Burnt-out workers simply decided to resign or retire rather than remain at their jobs. Others are taking a more aggressive approach to the workplace.

 

Unionization, for many, has been perceived as a viable instrument for change. In 2020, union membership ticked up to 11 percent; about half that gain came from the public sector. It is early days, but through November 2021, union actions have increased. The Department of Labor reports 13 labor strikes so far this year, but they only include strikes that include 1,000 workers or more. As such, they did not report, for example, a seven-month strike here in Massachusetts of 700 nurses at Saint Vincent Hospital in Worcester. Under the surface, labor experts say that well over 225 strikes is a more accurate number if you include smaller company workforce actions.

 

The nation's attention, however, has been focused on several high-profile union actions. Some big companies like Amazon, Starbucks, John Deere and Kellogg's, have been targets of the labor movement.

 

Amazon, the country's number two employer, fought a massive campaign to defeat union organization in Bessemer, Ala., this year. The vote to organize was defeated — a major blow to unions nationwide. But soon after, the National Labor Relations Board determined that the company improperly pressured warehouse staff not to join the union. That was no surprise to union organizers. It is a part of an ongoing trend dating back to the 1970s where companies have engaged in unfair labor practices that were largely supported by labor laws favoring employers over workers. However, times are changing

 

Thanks to the pandemic-induced change in attitude towards workers, positive union sentiment, for example, is at a generational high in the U.S., with 68 percent of Americans supporting unions, according to new data from a Gallup poll. The Biden administration is also supportive of unions as are many in the progressive wing of the Democrat Party. The PRO Act, currently being debated in the U.S. Senate, for example, would make it easier for employees to unionize and establish tougher penalties for employers who illegally attempt to stop their efforts. It would also allow gig workers and contractors to organize alongside traditional employees.  

 

These trends, together with the present labor shortage, has strengthened the hand of labor unions going forward. Amazon workers are slated to vote again in Alabama. Kellogg's workers, on strike since Oct. 5, 2021, are still holding out for better wages after rejecting a five-year, 3 percent offer from the company. In November 2021, John Deere's 10,100 production and maintenance workers won their strike with management and signed a new six-year agreement.  

 

Only last week, workers in Buffalo, N.Y., a city with a pro-union history, voted to form a union at Starbucks. It was one of three Starbucks locations in the city that held a vote (the second branch ended in a tie, while the last voted to reject unionization). The workers in the winning branch want better wages, benefits, and working conditions.

 

Observers are watching these actions carefully, given that there are 8,000 corporate Starbuck locations across the U.S. It is the first successful attempt to unionize an unskilled labor force in the leisure and hospitality sectors. As such, a better, union-negotiated contract could spur more unionization efforts across the country.  Whether these union efforts end with a bang or a whimper, bringing the American worker's condition to the forefront of the American agenda, is an absolute positive in my book.

 

Despite the recent scare caused by Omicron, the new novel coronavirus mutation, retailers are hoping consumers will continue spending in December 2021. I like that bet.

 

The National Retail Federation (NRF) is expecting a record holiday season totaling a take of between $843 billion and $859 billion in revenues throughout November 2021 and December 2021. That would be a record year for retailers such as Target, Walmart and Amazon.

 

Time is running out, however, given that we have less than three weeks to go until Christmas Day.

 

Remember, too, that the shopper began picking up gifts earlier than normal this year due to fears of continued supply chain shortages. Many consumers, fearing that popular gifts may be out of stock, or subject to shipping delays, were shopping for gifts as early as September 2021.  

 

The most recent data indicates that the total number of shoppers, as well as average spending, fell during the extended Thanksgiving weekend compared with sales results during the last two years. During the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, almost 180 million shoppers descended on the nation's retailers, but that is six million less than in 2020, and 10 million less than in 2019.

 

The average spend-per-customer came to $301.27, compared to $311.75 last year, and $361.90 in 2019.Cyber Monday saw a 1.4 percent decline versus last year. The NRF indicated that the price point of shopping carts rose by almost 14 percent on Cyber Monday (19 percent for the holiday season in general), as consumers bought more higher-priced, big-ticket items. However, some of those gains were the result of a higher rate of inflation.

 

Sky-rocketing prices due to inflation may have deterred some shoppers. Price pressures have also been partially responsible for reducing the number and amounts of discounted items offered by retailers this shopping season. Between now and the end of the year, the average discount on many items will fade to no more than 5-10 percent, according to some experts.

 

The disappointing numbers between Black Friday to Cyber Monday could also be the result of poor timing.  Most shoppers woke up to the news that South African medical experts announced a new and, possibly more virulent, coronavirus mutation on Black Friday morning. I know my own family's mood was impacted by the news, and any shopping intentions were immediately curtailed for the rest of the weekend.

 

Since then, the stock markets had plunged, fearing the worst, but then rebounded.  Recent data seems to support that this new strain, Omicron, is no worse than the present Delta mutation and that existing vaccines should be effective against Omicron. This should bolster the consumer's confidence that the U.S. economy will continue to grow, jobs will remain plentiful, and spending for the holiday season can continue unabated.

 

Retailers will tell you that we are in the "December Lull." It refers to the few weeks between Cyber Monday and leading up to Christmas Eve when consumers sit on their hands, feeling somewhat shopped out. That does not mean the consumer is finished shopping, they are just waiting for their second wind.

 

I am guessing that about 50 percent of holiday shopping is in the bag, but that still leaves half of America's gifts to buy. For me, I'll put my faith in the consumer who wants to celebrate a better world by spending — thanks to the safety provided by vaccinations.

 

On Tuesday, Nov. 30, during testimony before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve bank, did an about face on monetary policy. Powell appeared to take on a new mantle, that of the nation's chief inflation fighter, casting aside his former dovish stance towards continued easing of monetary stimulus. Investors are asking "what changed?"

 

"We're now looking at an economy that's very strong and inflationary pressures that are high," Powell said. He went on to say that it might be "appropriate to wrap up our purchases a few months earlier."

 

Powell was referring to the planned tapering of the Fed's monthly purchases of fixed income assets. Since March 2020, the Fed has purchased at least $120 billion in Treasury bonds, and mortgage-backed securities as part of an emergency monetary stimulus program to combat the effects of the pandemic on the economy.

 

Last month, the Fed, after months and months of preparing the market for a purchase reduction, finally announced they planned to reduce purchases by $15 billion per month until the purchase program ends sometime next summer. Investors, having taken that on board, were suddenly told this week that the timetable may be accelerated.

 

For weeks, central banks have been struggling with rising prices throughout the global economy. Several nations have already taken steps to rein in inflation by raising interest rates. Here in the U.S., the annual inflation reached its' highest level in 30 years two months ago. As inflation continues to climb and spread throughout the economy, the pressure for the Fed to do something has mounted.

 

Inflation, like almost everything else in this nation, has become a political football. Republicans have used the fear of inflation to scuttle the administration's Build Back Better spending proposal. At the same time, Democrats have argued that pulling back support for the economy until unemployment returns to its pre-pandemic levels would be a mistake. As it stands, the nation has recovered about 75 percent of the jobs lost, but there are still millions of Americans that have yet to return to the labor force.

 

The fly in the employment ointment continues to be the coronavirus. Each new variant of the virus delays further gains in labor force participation. Over the Thanksgiving weekend, for example, another variant called Omicron, presented itself with the first case discovered in California. Depending upon the outcome of this new threat, the risk to inflation could rise as supply chain problems worsen throughout global economies.

 

At this point, however, inflation is increasing its hold on more and more areas of the economy, regardless of the supply chains problems. "I think the risk of higher inflation has increased," Chairman Powell said, adding that he fears inflation will persist "well into next year."

 

Powell's testimony before Congress was his first public appearance since President Biden nominated him for a second term. As I mentioned, inflation has become a political problem, especially for the president. Was it an accident that Powell's stance on inflation altered just a week after his nomination?

 

No one knows what the two men discussed during their meetings, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to imagine that the issue of inflation came up. Some think that Fed vice chairman, Lael Brainard, lost out for the top spot because she was perceived to be a little less hawkish on inflation.

 

Whether political or not, Jerome Powell's decision to tighten monetary policy in the months ahead, while the coronavirus continues to be a serious issue, heightens the risk to investors in the future.