Home About Archives RSS Feed

The Independent Investor: Is Russian Bear Back In His Cave?

By Bill SchmickiBerkshires Columnist

Ukraine had been the topic on everyone's lips for over six months. Today, nary a word is written about Russian's plan to annex that nation. You can thank declining oil prices for that.

While most of the West rejoices over the recent precipitous drop in the price of oil, the story is quite different for the largest producer of fossil fuel energy, Mother Russia. That's right, Russia, and not Saudi Arabia, leads the world in energy production. As such, Russia depends on energy for 16 percent of its gross domestic product, 52 percent of total federal revenues and 70 percent of all exports. And that was in 2012. Since then the numbers are even higher.

As the price of energy continues to decline, so does the Russian currency, the ruble. It has dropped by 26 percent in the last year and just today fell another 1.3 percent. In the first half of this year alone, the Russian economy contracted by over 10 percent and that was before the brunt of the oil decline occurred. Russian officials estimated they will lose $90-100 billion a year based on oil's decline.

Officially, the Russian Economic Ministry cut its forecast for GDP in 2015 from 1.2  percent to minus-0.8. The Russian people are going to feel that bite with real incomes falling by 2.8 percent. This will be the country's first recession since 2009. At the same time, the inflation rate is expected to rise from 7.5 percent to 9 percent. In an effort to combat rising inflation their central bank is hiking interest rates at the same time to almost 10.5 percent, further hurting economic growth.

 Earlier in the year, the prospects for the Russian economy were already looking fairly anemic, thanks to Putin's adventurism in Crimea. In retaliation, U.S. and European sanctions have now begun to bite. By Russian forecasts, those sanctions will cost the country $40 billion this year. They have also effectively closed off global capital markets to Russian banks and corporations. As a result, investment has dropped off a cliff as uncertainty, combined with a lack of security, has devastated corporate Russia

On Dec. 4, Putin addressed his government ministers and parliament with a mix of sophisticated economic plans to liberalize the economy and good old-fashioned nationalism that would have made Hitler proud. Of course, he blamed the West for everything from Russia's current economic woes to annexing Crimea and Ukraine.

It was interesting that he barely mentioned the continuing war in Eastern Ukraine. It appears that the declining oil price has damaged Putin's plans far more than the economic sanctions instituted by the West. Was it a fortuitous coincidence that energy prices started to decline this year just as Vladimir Putin began to marshal his forces for a move into Ukraine?

Readers should remember that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which is getting the blame for not supporting oil prices, is a key U.S. ally. What better way to hamstring Russian adventurism than to hit them where it really hurts via oil? Notice, too, that both the administration and Congress has been silent about this recent energy rout, although theoretically, declining oil prices hurts our burgeoning shale industry and American efforts at energy independence.

I say let the oil price fall until it doesn't. Let the markets determine the fair value of energy and hopefully, in the meantime, bankrupt the Russian bear.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

     

The Independent Investor: The Truth Behind Black Friday

By Bill SchmickiBerkshires Columnist

The disappointing 11 percent decline in brick and mortar retail sales on Black Friday took Wall Street and Corporate America by surprise. Excuses vary from the holiday shopping fad has run its course, to people just wanted to be with their families on Thanksgiving. Don't believe it.

One CEO of a mega-discount retail company, when interviewed, bemoaned the disappointing sales, blaming the economy's 2-3 percent growth range, which he said, "feels like it's kind of perpetual."  For all of the hype and advertising devoted to turning out consumers for the extended Thanksgiving weekend, Black Friday was the biggest dud of the year.

This occurred even as the price of oil declined by over 30 percent, providing the largest boost to the consumer's pocketbook in years. Despite this windfall, consumers stayed home. It is part of an on-going story within this American economic recovery. Sure, Corporate America is making record profits. The stock markets are at record highs and, on the surface, unemployment is trending lower, but much of America is being left out of these good times.

Although the October jobs report showed strength in employment, a deeper examination reveals that much of the gains were in part-time or temporary employment. October's report showed that wages rose 0.1 percent for the month and for the year just 2.0 percent. That's below the rate of inflation. The truth is that after six years of recovery wages have stood still.

The jobs that are being created in this country are minimum wage service jobs for the most part. Last month, one out of every five jobs created in the U.S. went to a bartender or waiter. We now have almost as many jobs in those professions as we do in manufacturing.

This year congress, at the behest of Corporate America, shot down a hike in the minimum wage, arguing that a pay raise would cause corporations to reduce the number of workers they employ. With a shrinking middle class and more and more Americans subsisting on minimum wage jobs, exactly how are we expected to go shopping on Black Friday? At best, a worker's monthly paycheck covered Thanksgiving dinner for the family. Is Wall Street so far removed from the economic reality that the rest of us face?

In January, 1914, over a hundred years ago, thousands of American workers stood in the frigid Detroit winter to take Henry Ford up on his offer. The auto magnate was offering workers $5 an hour, double the prevailing wage, to work in his motor assembly plant. With that act alone, Ford established a middle class in this country and revolutionized the business world.

Now Ford was no philanthropist, far from it. Up until then his yearly production of Model "T” Fords was averaging about 200,000 automobiles. He wanted to move that number up to a million, but realized that there simply were not enough Americans with the kind of money necessary to buy one. None of his workers, for example, could afford to buy the product that they were making. He resolved to solve that problem and he did.

Fast forward to today. What is happening in this country is quite the opposite. Corporations are making fatter and fatter profits, mainly by cost cutting and financial engineering, while their workforce is succumbing to a lower and lower standard of living. The big retailer I mentioned at the beginning of this column, while lamenting his lack of sales, neglected to mention that his company had just discontinued medical benefits for their thousands of part-time workers.

This is going to be a real problem going forward for a country that depends on consumer spending for almost 70 percent of its economic growth. Unfortunately, both Wall Street and Corporate America exhibit, at best, short-term myopia and at worse, long term stupidity.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

     
Page 2 of 2 1  2  

Support Local News

We show up at hurricanes, budget meetings, high school games, accidents, fires and community events. We show up at celebrations and tragedies and everything in between. We show up so our readers can learn about pivotal events that affect their communities and their lives.

How important is local news to you? You can support independent, unbiased journalism and help iBerkshires grow for as a little as the cost of a cup of coffee a week.

News Headlines
Dalton Town Meeting May 6 Preview
Pittsfield Hydrant Flushing Schedule: Phase 2
State Closes Brookside Road Bridge
Special Minerals Agrees to Pay Adams, River Groups Over River Discharge
Retired Firefighter Running for Dalton Board of Water Commissioners
Berkshire Green Drinks presents Northeastern Cliff Swallows
May 4 is Wildfire Community Preparedness Day
Mount Greylock 3rd Quarter Honor Roll
Clark Art Lecture On Native American Burial Mounds
Hancock Town Meeting Features Major Question on School Choice
 
 


Categories:
@theMarket (484)
Independent Investor (451)
Retired Investor (188)
Archives:
May 2024 (1)
May 2023 (8)
April 2024 (6)
March 2024 (7)
February 2024 (8)
January 2024 (8)
December 2023 (9)
November 2023 (5)
October 2023 (7)
September 2023 (8)
August 2023 (7)
July 2023 (7)
June 2023 (8)
Tags:
Japan Stocks Deficit Economy Interest Rates Retirement Banks Greece Stock Market Stimulus Currency Crisis Markets Taxes Debt Ceiling Oil Commodities Debt Banking Europe Jobs Employment Bailout Europe Pullback Energy Rally Congress Selloff Metals Euro Fiscal Cliff Recession Federal Reserve Election
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
Independent Investor: Europe's Banking Crisis
@theMarket: Let the Good Times Roll
The Independent Investor: Japan — The Sun Is Beginning to Rise
Independent Investor: Enough Already!
@theMarket: Let Silver Be A Lesson
Independent Investor: What To Expect After a Waterfall Decline
@theMarket: One Down, One to Go
@theMarket: 707 Days
The Independent Investor: And Now For That Deficit
Recent Entries:
The Retired Investor: Unions Make Headway Across Nation
@theMarket: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back Keep Traders on Their Toes
The Retired Investor: Real Estate Agents Face Bleak Future
@theMarket: Markets Sink as Inflation Stays Sticky, Geopolitical Risk Heightens
The Retired Investor: The Appliance Scam
@theMarket: Sticky Inflation Propels Yields Higher, Stocks Lower
The Retired Investor: Immigration Battle Facts and Fiction
@theMarket: Stocks Consolidating Near Highs Into End of First Quarter
The Retired Investor: Immigrants Getting Bad Rap on the Economic Front
@theMarket: Sticky Inflation Slows Market Advance