Friday, October 31, 2014 03:48am
North Adams, MA now: 34 °   
Send news, tips, press releases and questions to info@iBerkshires.com
The Berkshires online guide to events, news and Berkshire County community information.
SIGN IN | REGISTER NOW   

Home About Archives RSS Feed
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
By: Bill Schmick On: 07:07PM / Saturday October 16, 2010
Important
0
Interesting
0
Funny
0
Awesome
0
Infuriating
0
Ridiculous
0

No, QE II is not the name of a cruise ship; although it might as well be, given the upward ride it is providing the stock market. The Federal Reserve is expected to launch another quantitative stimulus effort in early November and the markets are rising in anticipation of that event.

On Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated that the central bank is ready to move if necessary to stimulate the economy. Investors are assuming it's a question of "when" and not "if" the Fed will move to buy additional U.S. Treasury bonds, mortgage-backed securities and whatever else they decide will provide additional impetus to a slow-growth economy.

In an election year, where the continuing high rate of unemployment and the ongoing housing mess is being blamed on the Democrats, the pressure on the Fed for a QE II must be enormous. Remember, at the end of the day, Bernanke is a political appointee, as are the members of the Fed's governing board. Sure, we would like to think that the Fed is an independent body focused solely on the economic health of America and it is most of the time.

On the other hand, if the president's wishes dovetail with what the Fed perceives to be necessary in helping the economy so much the better.

In my last few market columns, I explained that QE II was a game changer. The Fed, by promising additional stimulus, is providing investors with a "put" on the economy and therefore on the stock market. If the economy continues to grow on its own, the markets will go higher. If the economy falters, the Fed will intervene to fix it and the markets will go higher. What's not to like about that?

The arguments on whether we really do need another stimulus, will QE II really work, and will it add to the potential for more inflation down the road are consuming a forest of newsprint. In the meantime, investors are dumping the dollar (see my latest column "The Coming Currency Wars"), the markets forge steadily higher and commodities of all kinds are on fire.

As readers recall, only a month ago I raised my price target for gold to $1,350 per ounce. We have already surpassed that level and it looks like the yellow metal will hit $1,400 per ounce very soon. I'm going to have to raise my price target again but first I would like to see gold and other commodities pull back.

The dollar is key to any commodity correction. There is an inverse relationship between the dollar and commodities. The dollar may bounce over the next few weeks and if it does, that should cause commodities in general to pull back. Remember too that in the commodity arena, corrections are extremely sharp where prices can drop dramatically in a very short time.

As the S&P 500 Index flirts with the 1,180 level, I would expect a bit of resistance before the bulls make a dash toward the year's highs. The ongoing questions over housing foreclosures that have embroiled most of the banking sector this week has kept a lid on the averages. The next Fed meeting won't be until early November so any potential QEII is still weeks away. The main market moving catalyst we face is this quarter's earnings announcements. So far, company results have been a mixed bag. My advice is to let the markets pull back a bit before committing any more money to this party.



1 Comments
Tags: Federal Reserve, Bernanke, stimulus      
News Headlines
Lenox Calling Special Town Meeting
Community Bids Farewell to MCLA's Grant & Canavan
Adams COA Loads Up 'Buckets of Sand' for Local Senior Citizens
BRPC Concludes Train Station Study, Encourages Towns To Stay Involved
2014 Bazaars & Craft Fairs
Berkshire County Arc Launches 2014 Annual Campaign
North Adams Edward Jones Office Supports Toys for Tots Drive
Adams Selectmen Updated on Park Street, Town Projects
Visitors Bureau: Tourists Spent $161 Million In Lenox Last Year
Clarksburg Seniors Have Deadline for Cable Discount

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (149)
Independent Investor (201)
Archives:
October 2014 (8)
October 2013 (1)
September 2014 (5)
August 2014 (7)
July 2014 (2)
June 2014 (6)
May 2014 (9)
April 2014 (8)
March 2014 (6)
February 2014 (6)
January 2014 (7)
December 2013 (8)
November 2013 (7)
Tags:
Markets Greece Congress Interest Rates Fiscal Cliff Euro Federal Reserve Oil Stocks Japan Debt Economy Selloff Recession Currency Deficit Stimulus Taxes Rally Metals Commodities Banks Jobs Election Pullback Europe Fed Europe Crisis Stock Market Retirement Energy Housing Bailout Debt Ceiling
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: All Clear
The Independent Investor: The Elephant in the Room
@theMarket: So far, So Good
The Independent Investor: OPEC's Oil Ploy
@theMarket: Are We There Yet?
The Independent Investor: Why Is This Recovery Different?
@theMarket: October Starts Off on High Note
The Independent Investor: Money & Divorce — What You Should Know
@theMarket: Wash, Rinse and Repeat
The Independent Investor: Is Wall Street Responsible for Climate Change?


View All
Grant & Canavan Farewell...
MCLA President Mary Grant and her husband, James Canavan,...
Girls Soccer: Franklin Tech...
McCann Tech girls celebrate 3-0 semi-finals win advance to...
Girls Soccer: Pittsfield vs...
The Pittsfield and Wahconah girls soccer teams on Tuesday...
Soccer: Putnam vs McCann Tech
The McCann Tech boys soccer team closed out the home...
Soccer: Hoosac Valley vs...
MCLA Boo Bash 2014
The annual MCLA Boo Bash hosted by Berkshire Towers...
Girls Soccer: Commerce vs...
McCann girls soccer team Senior Day game on Monday...
Adams Lions Club Halloween...
Children followed the Hoosac Valley Marching Band down Park...
Girls Soccer : Mount Greylock...
Flynn scored her second goal of the game to stop a Hoosac...
Football: Mount Greylock vs...
The undefeated Wahconah High School football team shutout...
Football: Lee vs Monument
Saturday afternoon football Lee wins over Monument Mountain...
The Massachusetts Junior...
The Massachusetts Junior Classics League held its fall...
Football: Hoosac Valley vs...
Hoosac Valley overpowers Drury 63-12, Saturday afternoon.
Pittsfield Halloween Parade...
Monsters and zombies, princesses and Jedi ushered in the...
Soccer: Wahconah vs Lenox
Collin Parrott scored three times on Tuesday to lead the...
Girls Soccer: Wahconah vs...
Rachel Donahue scored with four minutes left to give the...
Grant & Canavan Farewell...
MCLA President Mary Grant and her husband, James Canavan,...
Girls Soccer: Franklin Tech...
McCann Tech girls celebrate 3-0 semi-finals win advance to...
Girls Soccer: Pittsfield vs...
The Pittsfield and Wahconah girls soccer teams on Tuesday...
Soccer: Putnam vs McCann Tech
The McCann Tech boys soccer team closed out the home...
Soccer: Hoosac Valley vs...
| Home | A & E | Business | Community News | Dining | Real Estate | Schools | Sports & Outdoors | Berkshires Weather | Weddings
Advertise | Recommend This Page | Help Contact Us | Privacy Policy| User Agreement
iBerkshires.com is owned and operated by: Boxcar Media 102 Main Street, North Adams, MA 01247 -- T. 413-663-3384 F.413-664-4251
© 2000 Boxcar Media LLC - All rights reserved