Home About Archives RSS Feed

@theMarket: Let the Good Times Roll

Bill Schmick

Don't stand there moaning, talking trash
If you wanna have some fun,
You'd better go out and spend some cash
And let the good times roll
Let the good times roll
I don't care if you young or old,
Get together and let the good times roll

— B.B. King, Bobby Bland

It appears Monday's low in the stock market averages concluded this last little sell off. The decline occurred, courtesy of Standard and Poor's credit agency. It reduced its outlook for U.S. Treasury bonds from neutral to negative. Since then the markets have climbed back and are now preparing to test the next level of resistance.

We can credit some stellar earnings announcements, especially in the technology sector, for the turnaround in investor sentiment. Most investors were worried that the Japanese earthquake disruptions — especially in semiconductors — would hurt high-tech companies this quarter. But the strength in demand from around the world, especially in the manufacturing sector, has more than made up for any Japanese-generated short falls.

None of this should come as a surprise to readers since I have been expecting (and writing) that global economic growth would gain momentum this year. It is one fundamental reason why I think equity markets will experience upward momentum into the summer.

"But what about the deficit, the declining dollar, inflation, oil prices?" wrote an exasperated reader, who has disagreed with my bullish calls of late.

"How can the market keep going up and up when all these negatives are out there?" he moaned, while still sitting in cash.

All of those concerns are quite real and I am not discounting any of them. See, for example, my recent column "A Shot Across Our Bow" on Standard & Poor's debt warning. It is obvious that the market is choosing to ignore these negatives for now. I'm sure investors will re-visit these worries when the time is right, but remember Maynard Keynes once said that markets can stay irrational about certain things far longer than you or I can stay solvent.

I contend that as long as the Federal Reserve continues to supply cheap money to the markets in the form of its quantitative easing operations, the markets will go up. The historical low short term interest rates that are now a fact of life are forcing more and more investors to take on riskier assets in order to get a decent return for their money.

I'm looking for a quite sizable "melt-up" in global stock markets over the next few weeks or months. I'm also expecting some new moves by China to allow their currency to strengthen in an effort to combat their soaring inflation rate. That would add further impetus to a declining dollar, which would boost our exports and add more growth to the U.S. economy. It might also turn investor's focus back on China, which has lagged world markets for some time. Stay tuned.

Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or e-mail him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.

3 Comments
Tags: markets, debt, high-tech, ratings      

Support Local News

We show up at hurricanes, budget meetings, high school games, accidents, fires and community events. We show up at celebrations and tragedies and everything in between. We show up so our readers can learn about pivotal events that affect their communities and their lives.

How important is local news to you? You can support independent, unbiased journalism and help iBerkshires grow for as a little as the cost of a cup of coffee a week.

News Headlines
Pittsfield Council's Budget Recommendations Survive Charter Objection
Pittsfield OK's Alcohol License Transfer to Camp Arrow Wood
State Transportation Committee Chair Crighton Visits Berkshire County
Updated Schedule for Pittsfield Line Painting
Local Author Reads Book At NAPL
KEVS Foundation Donates AED to Pittsfield
July 6 Event Commemorates Home of Troy's Garage Baseball Squad
Take steps toward financial freedom
Adams Fire District Gets Second Open Meeting Law Complaint
Rotary Wins NBIYB Title
 
 


Categories:
@theMarket (414)
Independent Investor (451)
Retired Investor (97)
Archives:
June 2022 (6)
May 2022 (7)
April 2022 (8)
March 2022 (9)
February 2022 (7)
January 2022 (7)
December 2021 (9)
November 2021 (7)
October 2021 (8)
September 2021 (9)
August 2021 (6)
July 2021 (8)
Tags:
Japan Jobs Europe Markets Retirement Congress Bailout Debt Crisis Employment Metals Stock Market Interest Rates Banking Debt Ceiling Greece Stocks Currency Stimulus Banks Oil Pullback Federal Reserve Election Selloff Deficit Euro Fiscal Cliff Recession Taxes Europe Economy Commodities Rally Energy
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
Independent Investor: Europe's Banking Crisis
@theMarket: Let the Good Times Roll
Independent Investor: Enough Already!
@theMarket: Let Silver Be A Lesson
The Independent Investor: Japan — The Sun Is Beginning to Rise
Independent Investor: What To Expect After a Waterfall Decline
@theMarket: One Down, One to Go
@theMarket: 707 Days
The Independent Investor: And Now For That Deficit
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: Recession: 'Certainly a Possibility'
The Retired Investor: Stock Market & Midterm Elections
@theMarket: Inflation Shock Pummels Markets
The Retired Investor: Natural Gas Prices Fall But For How Long?
@theMarket: June Still Looks Good for the Markets
The Retired Investor: The Gun Industry Is Doing Just Fine
@theMarket: Corporate Earnings, the Dollar, and the 'W'
The Retired Investor: Wealth Effect Cuts Both Ways
The Retired Investor: Interest-Only mortgages Risky In Rising Rate Environment.
@theMarket: Look Out for a Bounce in the Stock Market