Twenty-thousand Russian troops are massing along the Ukraine border. Wednesday, in retaliation for another round of Western sanctions, Vladimir Putin imposed sanctions on certain U.S. and EU imports. And yet the markets barely registered the event. Are investors a bit too complacent?
Price action in the stock market would indicate that global investors believe both sides are bluffing. Putin is simply playing a game of chicken, pundits contend, betting Europe and the U.S. will blink first. They seem unperturbed that the hardware being deployed by the Russians on the Ukrainian front could roll back all the hard-won gains of the Ukrainian government over the past few weeks in a matter of hours.
As for Putin's economic trump card — an embargo of energy exports to Europe this winter — no one believes it will happen. And here's where financial people, especially free market types like those who reside on Wall Street, sometimes get it wrong. They believe that no one would shoot themselves in the economic foot simply for political gain.
Russia makes $1 billion a day from its natural gas and oil exports to the EU. The Russian economy is on the brink of recession after 15 years of strong growth driven by higher commodity prices. GDP is slowing from 0.9 percent in the first quarter to a forecasted 0.5 percent in the second. Inflation is rising, now 7 percent, and so is unemployment. Given the economy's weakened state, the sanctions imposed by the West are having a negative effect.
Its common knowledge that Europe depends upon Russia for a full third of its energy needs. It is also true that Russia's economic growth depends upon its energy exports, which accounts for over 50 percent of all exports. An embargo would hurt Russia far more than it would hurt Europe.
So, from a financial perspective, it would make no sense at all for Russia to shut off Europe's supply of energy this winter. The problem with that logic is that Putin, backed by a cadre of hardliners, does not necessarily believe that economic concerns should be their number one priority. Recent history proves this fact.
Back in the winter of 2006, during Russia's ongoing energy squabble with the Kiev government, they shut off gas supplies. Putin ordered another Ukrainian energy embargo in January, 2009. That one severely curtailed energy supplies throughout eighteen European countries. Some nations reported major drops or a complete cutoff of energy supplies at the time. The EUs distress was simply collateral damage from the Russian's point of view in its dispute with the Ukraine.
As for the argument that Putin would not dare to push too hard, give the state of his economy, investors have an extremely short memory. In the summer of 2008, the Russian economy was weakening as well, but it didn't stop Russian troops and tanks from over-running Georgia. Putin simply blamed the resulting economic weakness on the American financial crisis.
Today, things are different. The majority of Russians approve Putin's actions. During this crisis, unlike the 2009 gas embargo, the EU is not only supporting Ukraine, but also levying sanctions on Russia as well. Annexing the rest of the Ukraine, after getting away with swallowing up the Crimea, would be a logical next step from Putin's perspective.
Given all of the above, I am far less confident than the majority of investors that this conflict will go the way we expect.
Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.
In recent weeks, politicians and concerned citizens alike have decried the growing number of corporations that have opted to renounce their citizenship and move off-shore. Rather than simply playing the blame game, a better approach might be to examine the underlying cause for this growing exodus.
Taxes, as you might imagine, are the crux of the matter. It is true that U.S. corporations pay the highest tax rate in the world at 35 percent. It is an often-quoted statistic but not entirely accurate. The effective tax rate is more like 25 percent when all the deductions and allowances are accounted for. Nevertheless, that number is still high and many corporations fear it is going to grow larger in the years ahead.
The United States also insists that companies pay that same rate on income that was made overseas by its subsidiaries and repatriated home. In comparison, many countries tax only domestic profits, (those that are made in-country) while ignoring profits made overseas in countries like Ireland where tax rates are much lower.
As a result, some companies have resorted to a legal maneuver in which they merge with a foreign company or declare that its U.S. operations are now owned by its existing foreign subsidiary. By taking advantage of this tax loophole, a company can then shift reported foreign profits outside of American tax jurisdiction. As a result, they are only paying taxes on profits that are made in the United States. The rest of their worldwide income is repatriated to their new legal address in their new foreign domicile with little or no tax burden.
This is an especially appealing option to many technology and drug companies because much of their profits are derived from intellectual propriety like patents. If they transfer those patents overseas (and they do) a major portion of their profits becomes tax free.
To be clear, these companies are still paying taxes here. They are not moving jobs or production overseas. They are free to keep their top executives in the United States and most do! Bottom line these so-called “inversions” are nothing more than a change of address, a new mailbox that now resides in a foreign country.
Despite the furor these inversions have caused, we are not talking about many companies. Only 41 U.S. corporations have reincorporated in lower-tax countries since 1982, including 12 since 2012. Eight more are planning to do so this year. The U.S. Treasury estimates a decline in tax revenues of some $17 billion over a decade. That’s not much. What worries the politicians is that the pace may be quickening despite the Internal Revenue Service’s attempts to discourage the trend.
Senator Dick Durbin is working on a measure called the “No Federal Contracts for Corporate Deserters Act,” which will prevent inversion companies from benefiting from federal contracts. Others have resorted to name calling and deriding these companies as unpatriotic.
There is an argument that what made these corporations great was their ability to benefit from the things our government has provided - patent protection, our legal system, education, training, infrastructure, research and our ability to defend their interests from others in time of strife. And now they are turning their back on us in the name of higher profits?
There was a time when we could have explained away this attitude by reminding Americans that corporations are nothing more than economic animals driven solely by the profit motive. However, the Supreme Court changed all that when they declared corporations “individuals” with the same rights and responsibilities as humans. Should we therefore expect a new level of loyalty and good citizenship from these newly-minted citizens?
Clearly, our tax code is a mess. In order to remain competitive in this global marketplace, this country needs to adjust corporate and individual taxes at some point. However, we all know a tax overhaul is impossible given the present state of congress. As such, we should expect more of these inversions in the future as companies fend for themselves in the absence of action by our government.
Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.
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