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@theMarket: U.S. Jobs Data Sink Markets

By Bill SchmickiBerkshires Columnist

What's good for Main Street is not necessarily good for Wall Street, at least in the short-term. As traders fret over a new era of rising interest rates, American workers may finally be coming into their own.

The 5.1 percent unemployment rate, coupled with a 0.30 percent increase in wage growth has convinced stock traders that the Fed will raise rates this month. Over the past five years, investing in the financial markets was a one-way street. It didn't matter what the economy did, it was all about lower interest rates. The lower rates fell, the higher the market climbed. As the Fed prepares to reverse course and hike rates, investors are facing a brave new world and are nervous about that.

It will be a world where economics and its inevitable dislocations, will impact market valuations. Inflation will come back, as will wage growth, and productivity will start to matter again. As they have throughout history, interest rates will determine what investors are willing to pay for other financial assets. The end of massive central bank intervention will allow the American markets to function as they have in the past. Are we ready for that?

Yes, you may say, five years is long enough for all this government meddling. Of course, the flip side of that coin is that without the Fed's "put" on the market, we have to assume the risks of the marketplace. For me, personally, I'm fine with that. I cut my teeth in those kinds of markets and grew up in this business using all those historical metrics that have not worked very well since the Fed started intervening in the markets in 2009.

Plenty of people have explained the so-called reasons for the present turbulence in global financial markets. It's China, it's the Fed, or slowing global growth. Declining prices for oil and other commodities also make the list. All of the above may be true, but it strikes me that this is a correction that is looking for a reason. Sometimes there is just no "because ..." and I think this is one of those times.

Over the longer turn, history has taught us that what is good for our economy will also be good for our stock markets. Any discrepancies are usually short-term in nature. This is the crux of the matter. We all know that the typical investor's time horizon has grown shorter and shorter as a result of the internet, the media and our own expectations of what we expect from life. Most of us want it now and we become mightily distressed when that doesn't happen.

Why the lecture? In my opinion, all that is happening in the markets today is a sorting out of the potential risks we face in the near future. Are the markets correctly valued in a rising interest rate environment? How strong will the economy grow and how soon? Will the unemployment rate drop even further, maybe into the 4-plus  percent range. What will that mean? The "what-ifs" are endless, but that's what makes a market.

I suspect it will mean a return to the old ways of doing business. High-frequency trading, computer algorithms and the intensely short–term mentality in the narrow-minded corridors of Wall Street will have to change. As long as the Fed "had our back," traders could take all the risks they wanted. I'm betting that without that safety net, the casinolike element of the stock market will slowly subside. That will be a good thing for you and me.

I wrote last week that readers should expect continued volatility over the next several weeks. I remain convinced that we will re-test last Monday's lows (and possibly even break them). If we did, that would create a last burst of panic and lead to a final washout.

Don't try to trade this correction. Given the 200-point daily swings of the Dow, if the markets don't scare you out, they will wear you out. Instead, start practicing your long-term perspective. Just give the stock market time to digest this transition. Your portfolios are going to come back by the end of the year. Focus on what's really important over this holiday weekend.

The economy is finally picking up speed. Wage gains are accelerating and employment is close to full capacity.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

     

The Independent Investor: Senior Housing Set to Soar

By Bill SchmickiBerkshires Columnist

United States demographics indicate that the senior population in this country is growing at twice the national average. As more and more Baby Boomers retire in the years ahead the demand for senior housing is set to skyrocket.

Independent living facilities, where the elderly are still active and relatively healthy, are driving the growth in the overall retirement market. Occupancy rates have reached 91.3 percent and the overall growth rate in this sector is averaging about 6 percent a year. Since seniors will represent 20 percent of the U.S. population by 2030, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, this segment of the housing market will continue to grow.

The demand for these communities will continue to rise by the 500,000 people a year who will hit the age of 65 in the years to come.

Although the vast majority of Americans over 50 years of age still want to remain in their homes indefinitely, that may not be possible as health and other factors force them into alternative living styles. And the so-called nursing home business has been given a bad rap (and deservedly so), thanks to decades of accounting scandals, operational issues, excessive debt and poor, regimented living conditions. The good news is that this industry, that so many of us fear, is actually getting a facelift.

Surviving players and new entrants in the senior living industry have acquired a better understanding of what make seniors happy. They have adapted programs and amenities that are starting to attract the elderly. Back in the 1960s, when retirement communities were first built, big was beautiful and some developments numbered 25,000 homes or more. Today, planned developments range from 20-30 units to as large as 300-400 units, but rarely larger than that.   

The cookie-cutter approach has all but disappeared and in its place is a focused customizing strategy that transforms each new resident’s experience within the senior living community into something uniquely their own. There is also a renewed emphasis on home ownership rather than renting, since 80 percent of seniors, age 65 and older, are accustomed to being homeowners rather than tenants and they want to keep it that way.

The senior housing market is normally divided into several categories ranging from active adult communities, which are typically condos, co-ops or single-family homes with minimum or no services offered to those who are less active and may have more difficulty with routine housekeeping might prefer independent living facilities that supply everything from meals to organized group activities.

Seniors who find themselves needing personalized support services but do not require nursing home care might choose multifamily properties in an assisted living facility. Skilled nursing facilities and continuing care retirement communities provide hospitallike levels of care mixed with large numbers of independent living and assisted living units.

However, the days of long institutional hallways filled with drab rooms and silent residents watching visitors walk by are long gone. Instead, expect to see beautiful resort-style communities that offer residents exercise classes, fitness rooms and amenities and services that you might see at a luxury resort or on a cruise ship. Monday it may be cooking classes offered by an in-house chef. Tuesday could be golf pro lessons on the community links. Some communities have their own broadcast stations, social media sites or newspapers, with residents taking an active part in producing the news or entertainment.

As the population grows older it is also growing smarter. For the most part, seniors are more educated than ever before. They know what the future holds and are more willing to take control now. Moving into a beautiful senior living community at a younger age is making more and more sense to a growing segment of the elderly population.  I expect that trend to continue.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.
 

     
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