Home About Archives RSS Feed

Independent Investor: Precious Metals New Bull Trend

Bill Schmick

The recent price action in precious metals this past week convinces me that a new bull run in gold and silver is underway. For those investors who have yet to add some exposure to precious metals, now would be a good time.

That's not to say that these commodities will have a straight run higher from here. That would be too much to ask. There will be continual pullbacks in gold and silver. These corrections are usually sharp, fast and excruciatingly painful for those who are risk adverse. So if you don't have the stomach for volatility and turbulence, precious metals is not your cup of tea.

Back in May, gold and silver both hit my interim price targets of $1,250 an ounce of gold and $19.50 an ounce in silver. I then warned investors that there would be a period of consolidation.

"Wait for the pullback," I advised, "and then add or initiate new positions, but be prepared to wait. These commodities can back and fill for several months before resuming their move higher."

Fortunately, that scenario turned out to be accurate. I have been waiting patiently for both metals to decisively break above my interim price levels. I believe they did this week with gold reaching $1,275 an ounce and silver hitting $20.75 an ounce.

"So where do you see precious metals going?" asked one investor from Becket, who has a substantial holding in gold.

I believe gold can easily reach $1,350 an ounce before suffering another bout of consolidation. It could go higher, and I believe it will, but the timeframe depends upon a lot of variables that have no clear outcomes right now. In the case of silver, $30 to $36 an ounce is my ballpark estimate. Obviously silver has a substantially higher percentage gain ahead.

You would have to go way back to early 1980 to match the price of silver today. For those who were around back in the day, silver was in a huge run caused by two brothers, Nelson and William Hunt, along with a consortium of partners. At its peak, this silver pool owned more than 200 million ounces of silver. Its purpose was to buy silver as a hedge against inflation since at that time private citizens were prohibited from owning gold. The Hunt brothers cornered the market. The COMEX changed the rules and the Federal Reserve intervened in the market as well. The silver price collapsed and languished for well over two decades.

For many, precious metals offer a "safe haven" given the shaky state of the global economic recovery. At the same time, nearly every central bank in the world wants to prevent their currencies from gaining strength in order to facilitate increased exports. In addition, most governments have opted for an expansionary monetary policy in order to prevent deflation and kick start their economies.

I suspect that gold moved this week on a bet by speculators that the Federal Reserve will shortly stimulate the economy through additional quantitative easing. Investors are also betting that industrial demand for silver, as well as palladium and platinum, (which are also reaching new highs), will continue to increase in the future.

Investing in precious metals is risky, at best, but it's been the only game in town for investors lately. George Soros, the famed billionaire investor, recently warned that gold was the "ultimate bubble" and that "this is a period of great uncertainty so nothing is safe." I agree with that opinion. However when nothing is safe, a little gold is still better than no gold at all.

0 Comments
Tags: metals      

Support Local News

We show up at hurricanes, budget meetings, high school games, accidents, fires and community events. We show up at celebrations and tragedies and everything in between. We show up so our readers can learn about pivotal events that affect their communities and their lives.

How important is local news to you? You can support independent, unbiased journalism and help iBerkshires grow for as a little as the cost of a cup of coffee a week.

News Headlines
'I Want You to Panic': Youths Lead Williamstown Climate Strike Event
Kennealy Points to Lack of Quality Housing as Economic Threat
Letter: To the Voters of North Adams
Mount Greylock Turf Field Bids Come in Higher than Hoped
Williamstown ZBA Continues Hearing on Proposed Sporting Goods Store
The Ninth Walk A Mile In Her Shoes Hits North Street
Space-Related Company Eyes BIC for Testing Center
SVHC Welcomes New Volunteer Services Coordinator
'Hustlers': The Tacky Laps of Luxury
Northern Berkshire Santa Fund Changes Focus

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing over $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.

 

 

 



Categories:
@theMarket (301)
Independent Investor (412)
Archives:
September 2019 (5)
September 2018 (3)
August 2019 (5)
July 2019 (5)
June 2019 (8)
May 2019 (10)
April 2019 (7)
March 2019 (7)
February 2019 (6)
January 2019 (6)
December 2018 (4)
November 2018 (9)
October 2018 (5)
Tags:
Fiscal Cliff Euro Debt Ceiling Stocks Currency Selloff Wall Street Europe Recession Pullback Retirement Housing Interest Rates Japan Taxes Greece Congress Economy Rally Energy Oil Markets Crisis Election Deficit Jobs Europe Banks Stock Market Debt Commodities Bailout Stimulus Federal Reserve Metals
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
@theMarket: QE II Supports the Markets
The Independent Investor: Understanding the Foreclosure Scandal
The Independent Investor: Does Cash Mean Currencies?
@theMarket: Markets Are Going Higher
The Independent Investor: General Motors — Back to the Future
@theMarket: Economy Sputters, Stocks Stutter
The Independent Investor: How Will Wall Street II Play on Main Street?
The Independent Investor: Why Are Interest Rates Rising?
The Independent Investor: Will the Municipal Bond Massacre Continue?
Recent Entries:
The Independent Investor: The Era of U.S. Oil Independence
@theMarket: Investors Discover Value Stocks
The Independent Investor: Europe Throws in the Towel
@theMarket: Markets Break Out of 3-Month Trading Range
The Independent Investor: Business Roundtable's Change of Heart
@theMarket: The Summer of Financial Discontent
The Independent Investor: The Rising Costs of Hurricanes
The Independent Investor: Will We race to the Bottom?
@theMarket: Tariff Threat Unsettles Markets
The Independent Investor: Brexit: The Never-Ending Story