@theMarket: Stocks Versus Bitcoin
There was no contest this week. Cryptocurrencies took center stage as the stock market churned, chopped and gave investors a little indigestion. Welcome to the market's brave new world.
It appeared that Bitcoin was the answer to whatever ails you. Higher interest rates, the threat of higher inflation, weaker (or stronger) dollar, no problem just buy Bitcoin. By the end of this week, the crypto coin had chalked up a 15 percent gain and was trading above $52,000. Ethereum, Bitcoin's younger cousin, was also up 10 percent.
None of the financial market's usual suspects — stocks, bonds, or commodities — could come close to those kinds of gains. Detractors warn that the entire cryptocurrency run-up is just a fad and will end badly. Maybe so, but that didn't stop some of the largest institutions on Wall Street to at least consider investments in cryptocurrencies. And while Bitcoin soared, gold has plummeted.
Normally, in times of a weaker dollar and expectations of higher inflation ahead, gold would be soaring. As a result of price declines, traditional commodity analysts have been forced to adjust their bullish precious metals forecasts downward. The most common explanation given for this down draft is that Bitcoin has become the modern-age digital alternative to gold.
After all there is no need to pay storage costs, which you do for gold bullion; nor do investors need to worry about what central banks will do with their gold supplies. As for purchasing power, Bitcoin is accepted at some of the largest credit card companies in the world, as well as PayPal. You can even buy a Tesla with it, if you so desire.
Bitcoin is one reason, but not the only reason, why I wrote last month that although I expected most commodities to do well in 2021, gold was my least favorite among the group. Silver, platinum and copper, for example, are used in industry and are considered part of the re-opening trade. Rare earth metals, such as lithium, which are used in the manufacturing of electric batteries, should also see their prices continue to rise.
Oil has already performed well this year. The shutdown of almost 40 percent of the country's oil production this week, thanks to the deep freeze in Texas and the Mid-West, has resulted in what I suspect could be a short-term, "blow-off" top in oil and gas prices. But, longer-term, I expect energy prices to continue higher.
But what of equities? As we get closer to 4,000 on the S&P 500 Index, (if we actually get to that target) I expect to see more volatility in the markets. Right now, it is all about the stimulus package, which is expected to pass in early March. Will passage be a sell-on-the-news event?
You may have noticed by now that large cap tech continues to advance, but the real action is in small cap stocks. This is also part of my 2021 thesis. What has worked for investors over the last decade (think FANG stocks) may not perform as well this year.
My advice for now is to hold tight, continue to take some profits when you can, and set that cash aside for the future. The next 100 points higher on the S&P 500 are not a sure thing, so be ready for some possible downside as we work our way towards the end of the month.
|Write a comment - 0 Comments|
The Retired Investor: Clubhouse Comes of Age
The latest entrant into the social media orbit is an audio-only chat app called Clubhouse. The internet company had a $1 billion valuation before it had a business plan. That is even more surprising since membership is by invitation-only.
On Jan. 24, 2021, the company announced its latest $100 million fundraising effort, and for the first time presented a rough sketch of how it plans to start generating sales. Its Silicon Valley founders, Paul Davidson and Rohan Seth, are hoping to offer paid subscriptions, ticketed events, and other schemes to turn the site profitable.
You need to know an existing member in order to get an invite to join Clubhouse. Once you become a member, you can join the conversation on a variety of topics. Everything from cryptocurrencies to the latest sports games, to any other topic you can imagine. You can wander what is called "the hallway" and listen in on various live conversations in process as you pass different rooms.
So, who, you might ask, would want to pay just to listen in or have a conversation with someone? Well, it might depend on who was doing the talking. What if Elon Musk, or Mark Zuckerberg, Oprah, or Drake were the guest speakers?
The site's virtual rooms are organized into a host, moderators, and audience members. The host and moderators determine the conversational flow, who can speak, and when, as well as any question-and-answer segment if applicable. It is quite similar to a virtual panel discussion you might attend through Zoom or GoToMeeting. However, this is an audio-only event with no videos.
Each event or topic may be different. And if, for example, the subject matter is performance-related, as in acting, or presenting a comedic routine, or the topic is designed for listen-only, then the panel member may not allow audience feedback or a Q&A.
The founders are betting that you will not only be attracted to Clubhouse's exclusivity, but will also be willing to pay for a seminar by a famous influencer on topics like the future of coronavirus, or watch the Clubhouse production of "The Lion King."
To date, there are about 180 investors, including several large venture capital firms, and a group of smaller, independent investors that have funded the effort. There are an estimated 6 million registered Clubhouse users, which continues to grow by leaps and bounds.
Clearly, the formula for success is providing the membership a growing list of relevant topics and "influencers" who are loyal to the site. Tesla CEO Elon Musk made his first (and only) appearance on the site on Jan. 31. He is credited with single-handedly driving membership from 3 million to more than 5 million users worldwide in a matter of days. New members sprouted up in Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, and Japan.
Much of the credit for the APP's early success lies with a group of talented Black artists who transformed what was a geeky tech hangout into something more that would appeal to a much wider audience. But success does not come without a price.
Clubhouse in its earlier days had its fair share of hate speech, nasty conversations, and verbal harassment of speakers, moderators, and audience members. Since then, the company has developed its own set of community guidelines as well as "block," "mute" and "report" buttons. In addition, some of Clubhouse funds are now used to hire more professional moderators as well as for training of those members who host and/or moderate rooms. Given the varied and heated opinions of these divided states, I suspect it will become even more difficult to maintain civility in these rooms depending upon the topics presented.
The Clubhouse success has also spawned competitors. Twitter recently launched a live audio feature called "Spaces," Facebook is reported to be developing something similar, and the Chinese are putting together their own version of the app.
As for me, I am still waiting for someone who is a Clubhouse member to send me an invite. I would greatly appreciate it. My email is firstname.lastname@example.org.
|Write a comment - 0 Comments|
@theMarket: Financial Froth Infects Markets
One sure sign that stocks are getting overdone, is the actions of overconfident investors that bid up stocks in a euphoric frenzy, only to dump them at the first sign of trouble. These behavior patterns normally usher in a corrective stage in the stock market, but exactly when that will occur is anyone's guess.
Investopia's definition of froth "refers to a market condition where an asset's price begins to increase beyond its intrinsic value." Wall Street's "Reefer Madness" event this week is just such an example. Certain stocks in the Cannabis sector saw their share prices double and then triple in a matter of days. Penny pot stocks with little to no fundamentals skyrocketed higher as well, notching up 50 percent gains or more each day.
I, for one, was quite happy with those results; at least at first. After all, marijuana stocks were on my 2021 list of sectors investors might want to consider this year. My reasoning had more to do with expectations that Congress would finally legalize the substance. If so, it would allow companies to finally access capital from the banking sector, and possibly trigger a wave of mergers and acquisitions. I never counted on a Reddit Raid by traders.
Evidently some investors, emboldened by their success in pushing up (and then down) some stocks like GameStop and AMC, turned their sights on pot stocks. While traders couldn't get enough of these shares on Monday and Tuesday, by Wednesday those same stocks saw declines of 50 percent or more. But those stocks were not the only example of froth. Bitcoin had its own bout with buyers.
Cryptocurrencies were another area, which was on my recommendation list for this year. Bitcoin soared this week after Elon Musk announced that his company, Tesla, the electric vehicle manufacturer, had invested up to $1.5 billion in Bitcoin last month. Bitcoin gained 25 percent this week as a result. Several stocks that were leveraged to cryptocurrencies did far better than that.
Platinum, and platinum stocks (another of my recommendations), hit six-year highs as well this week. Let me go on. Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) of all shapes, sizes, and colors are being snapped up faster than they can be created as well. No never mind that the majority of these investment vehicles in search of an asset have left investors holding the bag more times than not if you wait around too long to sell.
It has gotten to the point that traders are now monitoring the feed of Reddit, the internet App, as well as tweets from "Wallstreetbets," which is popular with the Robin Hood retail crowd looking for clues on the next stock or sector that could rise from the ashes.
And yet, if readers were to simply look at the major averages of the stock market, nothing much has happened this week. The S&P 500 Index made minor new highs, as did NADSAQ, but then fell back again. If anything, the indexes have simply consolidated this week.
One would think that a series of successive new highs, combined with a series of frothy escapades, would lead to a wildly bullish investor base. Not so. Instead, recent fund flows suggest investors are rather cautious on stocks. Fund flows have favored bonds, rather than stocks since the beginning of the year.
Bullish investment sentiment, as measured by the AAII Index, also fell in January and has still not recovered. Since the beginning of the year, money market cash has increased by $10 billion and roughly $50 billion has been pulled out of equity funds. One possible reason for the sour sentiment could be the froth I have been referring to.
Media coverage of some of these massive, short-squeezes and the rapid rise and fall of stocks (and even commodities such as silver) may have frightened off the more conservative investor — at least for now.
As readers are aware, I have been advising that you take some profits in investments in which you have out-sized gains. I have been taking my own advice this week. I sold some of those stocks that had run up to what I considered nose-bleed levels. I will continue to do so if the opportunity presents itself. I expect we may see one more surge higher (2-3 percent) before we encounter a more serious pullback, so enjoy the froth while it lasts.
|Write a comment - 0 Comments|
The Retired Investor: Gambling, the Vice We Love
The pandemic has altered the behavior patterns of many Americans. It has also forced states to re-examine their thinking in several areas, especially in taxation and spending. One of the biggest winners in this process appears to be gambling.
Clearly, with most of the nation's leisure activities shut down, more and more Americans are looking for something to occupy their time. At the same time, thanks to massive losses in tax revenues, states are scrambling for ways to make ends meet. Sports and other forms of online gambling are an easy answer to shoring up state budgets, while satisfying the consumer's demand for more action in this burgeoning leisure market.
The trend toward legalizing gambling both on and off the internet has been around for the last several years, but the pandemic has added momentum to that process. Back in 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states have the right to decide the status of sports betting for themselves. As a result, more than 24 states have legalized betting either online or at casinos or both.
Sports betting is only the latest offering in a field crowded with other gambling pastimes. Whatever your poison — poker, slots, sports betting, or live casino games — you can increasingly access it online. More and more Americans are doing just that.
For those veteran gamblers who enjoyed the excitement of the brick-and-mortar atmosphere of established gambling casinos, it took the pandemic to lure them onto the internet side of things. They found that online sites offered their own brand of adrenaline rush. Slot machines, for example, tend to be much more fun than the traditional, one-armed bandits of yesteryear. If that is not your cup of tea, you can access live studios where the game and dealers are in real-time and the light shows are often dazzling.
Another benefit of online sites is safety. Gamblers can feel safe because there are plenty of reliable websites that have been licensed by the state. They offer a transparent and fair game with high-security protocols. They are also open 24 hours a day, and you don't need to wear make-up or comb your hair to gamble. In addition, there are no lines, social requirements, expensive dinners, hotels, or worries about costly transportation to the casino.
The nation's attention was drawn to sports betting last weekend thanks to the Super Bowl. Wagers on the game were expected to break all records in legal sports betting. The American Gaming Association predicted that as many as 23.2 million people would be wagering bets on the outcome of the game. That would be a 62 percent increase from last year's wagers, totaling $4.3 million.
The nation's media featured a Texas businessman and owner of a furniture store, "Mattress Mack" Jim McIngvale, who placed a $3.46 million bet on the game and won $6.18 million. It was thought to be the largest bet made at the game.
Mattress Mack placed the bet on his smartphone through DraftKings (DKNG), a public company that is one of the top betting platforms in the nation. The publicity has been good both for the furniture store as well as for the price of DraftKings. The company's stock price has climbed substantially over the last few months as investors became aware of just how large the betting public has become.
Worldwide, the online gambling market is valued at $59 billon, according to Statista, a data research firm, and is expected to reach $92.9 billion by next year. That has investors excited. And like so many other areas affected by the pandemic, gambling could become even bigger in the future with online betting leading the way.
|Write a comment - 0 Comments|
@theMarket: Stocks Regain Momentum
What a difference one week makes! Stocks recouped all their losses this week, and then went on to make new highs. The outcome of President Biden's proposed stimulus bill will determine the market's next move.
Let me set the record straight. Last week, I wrote that I expected stocks to stumble, and hopefully preparing readers for a possible decline of 10-15 percent. That was a mistake. Instead, traders bought last week's 3 percent dip and, at this point, we are now back to square one. Well, not quite.
The U.S. dollar, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond, and the price of gold have all moved substantially since last Friday. The greenback, as represented by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), has gained 1.22 percent. That may not sound like much, but in the world of currencies that is a big move. If it continues to gain momentum from here, we could see some of the biggest natural resources gainers in the market hit a brick wall.
As for interest rates, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Bond is now hovering in the 1.14 percent-1.15 percent range. The rise in rates is a reflection of the current negotiations underway in Washington over the timing and amount of the latest stimulus package. Here's why.
There is a whole breed of bond market investors out there (called Bond Vigilantes), who are quick to buy or sell bonds based on how they interpret the government's monetary or fiscal policy moves will impact inflation. In this case, additional stimulus by the Biden Administration would be considered inflationary, so the Vigilantes are selling bonds. Remember, there is an inverse relationship between the price of bonds (which are going down) and their yield or interest rate. Prices down, rates up.
Commodities, and to some extent, emerging markets, could experience a bout of profit-taking if interest rates and the dollar continue to climb higher. Which brings us to precious metals, specifically gold and silver. This week, gold fell below $1,800 an ounce, since a stronger dollar and higher interest rates are like kryptonite to gold.
Normally, silver would have declined as well with its bigger brother. And it has, but not nearly by the same percentage points. You can thank the Reddit/Robin Hood traders for that. After their initial success with Game Stop, some retail speculators believe they can push the heavily shorted silver price higher by large and concerted purchases of the silver Exchange Traded Fund (SLV).
I doubt they will succeed, since silver is a huge global commodity that would require a heck of a lot of buying power to do more than move the silver price on a short-term basis. I would not recommend readers participate in this endeavor, although I do like silver for other reasons; but wait until the speculation subsides.
We are halfway through earnings season and investors have been pleasantly surprised by the results. Initially, Wall Street was bracing for an average 10 percent decline in the numbers, but at this point, the shortfall overall is less than 1 percent. Those results breed confidence in analysts' projections for this year, which are in the 20-25 percent-plus range right now.
Those expectations are based on the success of the U.S. vaccination program and the reopening of the economy. It is why I am bullish over the medium-term, even though I am still of the mind that somewhere ahead in this first quarter we will experience a pullback. On the upside, I could see the markets possibly approach the 3,950-4,000 level on the S&P 500 Index in a burst of irrational exuberance.
As the market climbs, I continue to advise investors to slowly-but-surely take some profits in those stocks where you have experienced outside gains. This is not market timing. This is common sense talking. You will be happy you did, if only because it will afford you an opportunity to buy the same, or different stocks at a cheaper price.
|Write a comment - 0 Comments|