AFC Elite at Odds in Week 13: Pats vs. Jets, Steelers vs. Ravens

Thursday 12/9: Needed a reminder that Boston is still a baseball town? The Patriots are riding high following one of their biggest regular season wins in team history, the Celtics are rolling along as one of the elite teams in basketball and the Bruins are certainly in the discussion when talking about championship contenders in hockey..... but this week, the Red Sox are stealing the headlines. Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford have joined a team that looked pretty damn good (in my opinion) to begin with. I've been saying this for about six or seven consecutive years, but it certainly applies this week: It's a great time to be a Boston sports fan.

As for the NFL pick, I'm going with Tennessee over Indy. The Colts have lost three in a row, while the Titans haven't won a game since October 24. Indy seems like a logical pick because it's hard to imagine Peyton Manning losing four straight. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I'm picking the Titans to pull off the big upset.

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To all of the NFL geeks out there, do you have a couple hours to waste? Head over and play with ESPN’s Playoff Machine. So much fun.  If you haven’t heard of it, basically it allows you to predict winners for the rest of the regular season, and it shows you how the postseason would shape up based on your picks.

The other day, I plugged in my predictions and this is how it turned out: 

AFC

Byes: Patriots, Ravens

First round: N.Y. Jets at San Diego; Pittsburgh at Indianapolis

NFC

Byes: Atlanta, Green Bay

First round: Chicago at Philadelphia; New Orleans at St. Louis

I was so intrigued by this innovation that I asked my brother and my dad to make their game-by-game picks, just to see what playoff matchups they came up with. If my dad’s picks are accurate, he has a 6-10 San Francisco 49ers team hosting a first-round playoff game. It’s scary, but that is actually conceivable. Could you imagine the outrage in cities like New York or Philadelphia if their teams didn’t make the cut with 9 or 10 wins, yet a 6-win team from the NFC West had a home game?

I’m pretty sure fans and media analysts would strongly urge the league to change their playoff format, which would create quite a predicament. It would seem odd to have a division winner not make the playoffs, but at the same time, there should never be a situation where a team under .500 makes it, let alone hosts a game. Should be interesting to see how it plays out.

Before I get to the Week 13 predictions, one more tidbit about just how big Monday night’s game is for the Patriots. According to the Playoff Machine, if the Pats beat the Jets, they’d be in really good shape for the top seed in the conference. Even if the Jets were to win their last four and finish 13-3, the Pats could afford to lose one game against either the Bears or Packers, and finish 13-3 and lock up home field throughout the playoffs. However, losses to Miami or Buffalo would hurt them because of the division tiebreaker.

Assuming (which I shouldn’t do) that the Pats and Jets each finish 5-1 in the division and with identical conference records, New England would edge the Jets in the next tiebreakers: record vs. common opponents (because the Pats beat Baltimore, Jets did not); and strength of victory (Pats beat teams like Indy, San Diego…Jets beat Cleveland, Denver).

Anyways, all of this means nothing if the Pats can’t win on Monday night. They wouldn’t be out of the running for the top seed, considering the Jets still have to play at Chicago and Pittsburgh, but they wouldn’t control their own destine. So, just in case you weren’t aware, Monday night’s game is HUGE!

On to the picks ...

NEW ORLEANS AT CINCINNATI: Saints

CHICAGO AT DETROIT: Bears

SAN FRANCISCO AT GREEN BAY: Packers

JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE: Titans

DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: Chiefs

CLEVELAND AT MIAMI: Browns

BUFFALO AT MINNESOTA: Vikings

WASHINGTON AT N.Y. GIANTS: Giants

OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO: Chargers

CAROLINA AT SEATTLE: Seahawks

ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY: Falcons

ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: Rams

DALLAS AT INDIANAPOLIS: Colts

PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE: Ravens

N.Y. JETS AT NEW ENGLAND: Patriots

Last week: 8-8

Thursday night: 1-0

Season Record: 108-69